2024 Playoffs- 2nd Round: Oklahoma City Thunder - Dallas Mavericks

[SleepingHero]

Temp image here

[Winter]

Rotations will be interesting to watch in this series.

[The Jom]

My super-unsophisticated analysis says there are only 2 questions that matter:

1. Can DJJ make life difficult for SGA? If yes, this series will never be in doubt.

2. If no, we’ll have a barn burner, and the best offender (SGA? Kyrie? Gimpy Luka?) wins. Who will that be?

50% chance (1/2) Mavs win on question 1, plus a 67% chance (2/3) they win on question 2. That leaves only a 17% chance the bad guys prevail.

Other questions that interest me but don’t seem likely to be decisive:

* Will Gafford defend a small so that PJ draws the Chet assignment?
* Will Mavs continue regular season strategy of daring Giddy to shoot (coming off back to back terrific shooting nights)?
* Will Lively’s defensive rim presence continue at all-world levels, or will the rookie whistles run him off the court quickly?
* Does this Super KAI thing have legs (51% FG, 45% 3PG, 27 PPG)?
* Will Exum and/or Green show out against a team that, presumably, can’t play as physical as the Clippers?
* Does Jalen Williams turn into a superstar at Mavs’ expense?
* Is Gordon Hayward done?

[SleepingHero]

I think SGA being limited is one thing, but I think the main thing the Mavs have to do is slow down Jaylin Williams. SGA will foul bait his way to 30. But if they can limit the other guy to less than 20 then OKC doesn't have much else. They're relying on Giddey to attack and to be fair the Mavs want that.


41% of OKC's shots came from 3 against NOP. The Clippers shot 40% of their shots from 3 as well. Limiting their other guys from the perimeter and making this an inside game is key.

Speaking inside, the 2nd most important thing is taking Chet out of the game. Doing that, OKC has really no other big that can be trusted. Biyombo will be destroyed by Luka. Lively and Gafford have their work cut out for them. If they can be physical and overpower Chet, while also providing the same suffocating rim protection they gave the Mavs in the 1st round they are cooking with something there.

[DallasMaverick]

My super-unsophisticated analysis says there are only 2 questions that matter:

1. Can DJJ make life difficult for SGA? If yes, this series will never be in doubt.

2. If no, we’ll have a barn burner, and the best offender (SGA? Kyrie? Gimpy Luka?) wins. Who will that be?

50% chance (1/2) Mavs win on question 1, plus a 67% chance (2/3) they win on question 2. That leaves only a 17% chance the bad guys prevail.

Other questions that interest me but don’t seem likely to be decisive:

* Will Gafford defend a small so that PJ draws the Chet assignment?
* Will Mavs continue regular season strategy of daring Giddy to shoot (coming off back to back terrific shooting nights)?
* Will Lively’s defensive rim presence continue at all-world levels, or will the rookie whistles run him off the court quickly?
* Does this Super KAI thing have legs (51% FG, 45% 3PG, 27 PPG)?
* Will Exum and/or Green show out against a team that, presumably, can’t play as physical as the Clippers?
* Does Jalen Williams turn into a superstar at Mavs’ expense?
* Is Gordon Hayward done?

I’m thinking maybe it’s PJ guarding SGA.

DJJ on Jalen Williams.

Lively on Chet, since he’s a little quicker than Gafford. On the other hand, maybe they start Gafford in order to try to overpower Chet down low.

Luka on Dort.

Kai on Giddey.

[Chicagojk]

OKC stresses you out on defense. They can give you fits. With that being said, I am not a fan of just giving the. Wide open Giddey threes. I would be fine if he takes 7 threes a game but I don’t want them to be wide open corner threes with no one in sight.

Sort of an off the wall chess match of the series is Luka/kyrie vs Chet. Chet has been great it I assume Luka is going to play a lot of cat and mouse with Chet. How Chet responds good be a nearly key of the series as Luka gets into the lane

[Chicagojk]

I think SGA being limited is one thing, but I think the main thing the Mavs have to do is slow down Jaylin Williams. SGA will foul bait his way to 30. But if they can limit the other guy to less than 20 then OKC doesn't have much else. They're relying on Gidde


4

Mavs are in trouble if their strategy is to slow down Jaylin Williams.  Ha.   Seriously too many J Williams on that team.   I was a big fan of Jaylin in college and he looks like he is developing into a nice player.  Another Arkansas center.

[SleepingHero]

Mavs are in trouble if their strategy is to slow down Jaylin Williams.  Ha.   Seriously too many J Williams on that team.   I was a big fan of Jaylin in college and he looks like he is developing into a nice player.  Another Arkansas center.

Ooop. Yeah way too many J. Williams on one team. I meant the 20ppg SG who shot nearly 54% from the field this year!

[soog]

I think you make Chet beat you. Focus the defensive game plan on Shai and Jal. Williams, then on the offensive end you attack the paint and wear Chet out trying to keep Gafford and Lively out of the paint and off of the boards.

After wearing him out playing defense you double to get the ball out of the guards’ hands and play Chet straight up. You see if Chet has the endurance and maturity to elevate his game and be the one to beat you.

Of course it won’t be that simple or easy, but that’s at least what my overall game plan would be.

[Mavs2021]

Maybe I´m delusional, but I´m very confident about this match-up. My only worry is Daigenault. I know he´s very good. No idea if he is special. I think we are the better team. They just benefitted from perfect health during the regular season. Without it they are probably a 48-50 wins team.

[Chicagojk]

Tough team to hate right now. Young team. Play the right way. Seems to have a good group of guys. Even the OKC fans seem civil.

With that being said, if I would pick one player I wind up hating as the series goes on, I am going with Dort. I assume he is going to be really physical guarding Luka and Kyrie.

Secret guy who I wind up hating is JJ Joe....who appears is never going to miss when he shoots and good chance he shoots 75% from 3 in the series.


edit...not JJ joe...Isaiah Joe....showing my age.

[mvossman]

I’m thinking maybe it’s PJ guarding SGA.

DJJ on Jalen Williams.

Lively on Chet, since he’s a little quicker than Gafford. On the other hand, maybe they start Gafford in order to try to overpower Chet down low.

Luka on Dort.

Kai on Giddey.

I would guess DJJ on SGA and PJ on Williams.  I would also guess Luka on Giddey and Kai on Dort.

[dirkfansince1998]

* Will Gafford defend a small so that PJ draws the Chet assignment?
* Will Mavs continue regular season strategy of daring Giddy to shoot (coming off back to back terrific shooting nights)?

They should at least test it and dare Giddey to shoot in game one. With Gafford or Lively playing off him. Wouldn't be suprised if Luka is guarding Holmgren for stretches. On paper it is the easiest matchup for him. Chet doesn't have the strength to do damage in the post and doesn't have the speed/agility to beat Luka on the perimeter.
That leaves DJJ and PJ for the toughest matchups (SGA, JWill) and Kyrie on the smallest starter (Dort).

If Giddey shoots like he did in the first round the Mavs need to come up with something else but I really don't want to see Lively/Gafford on Holmgren. Both tend to sink into the paint and give up open 3s. But I do like the matchup on offense. If Gafford can stay on the floor vs 5-out lineups the Mavs can play bully ball in the paint.

[Mavs2021]

They should at least test it and dare Giddey to shoot in game one. With Gafford or Lively playing off him. Wouldn't be suprised if Luka is guarding Holmgren for stretches. On paper it is the easiest matchup for him. Chet doesn't have the strength to do damage in the post and doesn't have the speed/agility to beat Luka on the perimeter.
That leaves DJJ and PJ for the toughest matchups (SGA, JWill) and Kyrie on the smallest starter (Dort).

If Giddey shoots like he did in the first round the Mavs need to come up with something else but I really don't want to see Lively/Gafford on Holmgren. Both tend to sink into the paint and give up open 3s. But I do like the matchup on offense. If Gafford can stay on the floor vs 5-out lineups the Mavs can play bully ball in the paint.

I´m utterly confused by this Chet talk. He shot 7-23 from three against Valanciunas, who has zero perimeter mobility. He can have all the 3pt shots he wants at 29%. Giddey and Dort shot over 50% from 3 in the first round on 10 attempts per game! Much more worried that they continue their hot shooting. Then we are in trouble.

[dirkfansince1998]

I´m utterly confused by this Chet talk. He shot 7-23 from three against Valanciunas, who has zero perimeter mobility. He can have all the 3pt shots he wants at 29%. Giddey and Dort shot over 50% from 3 in the first round on 10 attempts per game! Much more worried that they continue their hot shooting. Then we are in trouble.

Sample size. Four games vs the entire regular season. Chet is a better shooter than Giddey. I would rather dare Giddey to keep up his hot shooting on a much higher volume.
Don't think the Mavs should change the entire scheme over a four game sample size. Westbrook also started 2/4 from 3 against the Mavs. Mavs still left him wide open and at some point he started to miss.

[Mavs2021]

Sample size. Four games vs the entire regular season. Chet is a better shooter than Giddey. I would rather dare Giddey to keep up his hot shooting on a much higher volume.
Don't think the Mavs should change the entire scheme over a four game sample size. Westbrook also started 2/4 from 3 against the Mavs. Mavs still left him wide open and at some point he started to miss.

Yeah sorry, if I don´t put much emphasis on the fact that he puts up 20 PPG against lottery teams during the regular season.

He´s at 12/10 against the Mavs. Lively is 12/9. Gafford is 16/11. Yeah he shot 40% from three in the four games against the Mavs. He also took 10 total. Why people act so scared of this guy. He´s not Wembanyama. We are going to crash that offensive board. Jonas was at 5 ORPG in 22 minutes. I´m only worried about the officiating. If they give us a fair shake, Holmgren will be in foul trouble quickly. I assume they will give them a lot of weak calls, where they call offensive fouls on Gafford for being mean to the bean. If he goes through Holmgren like he did against Zubac, they probably call a flagrant foul on Gafford.

[dirkfansince1998]

Yeah sorry, if I don´t put much emphasis on the fact that he puts up 20 PPG against lottery teams during the regular season.

He´s at 12/10 against the Mavs. Lively is 12/9. Gafford is 16/11. Yeah he shot 40% from three in the four games against the Mavs. He also took 10 total. Why people act so scared of this guy. He´s not Wembanyama. We are going to crash that offensive board. Jonas was at 5 ORPG in 22 minutes. I´m only worried about the officiating. If they give us a fair shake, Holmgren will be in foul trouble quickly. I assume they will give them a lot of weak calls, where they call offensive fouls on Gafford for being mean to the bean. If he goes through Holmgren like he did against Zubac, they probably call a flagrant foul on Gafford.

I think the topic was defensive matchups. I would prefer to follow the same gameplan that worked against the Thunder in the regular season. Worked against Westbrook in the first round. Pick the worst shooter on the floor and dare him to shoot. Pick a good help defender and let him play free safety in the paint.
In the first round it was Gafford/Lively playing center or Kleber playing PF. Kleber is out. So the Mavs can use their bigs or pick one of the guards/forwards. DJJ and PJ are more valuable in one ball roles. Kyrie isn't big enough. Luka should save some energy. That leaves Gafford/Lively.

[Winter]

The elephant in the room is Hardaway.

Kidd will give him minutes. The positive side of me says Hardaway will likely understand that his defense will be critical, and that he has to be a two-way player to get his minutes. He will also need to make a few of those shots he didn't make in the second half of the season.

Hardaway is more important than he should be - or that I wish he was. But the fact is that we don't have much offensive horsepower on the bench and we really do need him in this series. No one in our playoff rotation has real NBA playoff experience except him now that Kleber is out.

[KillerLeft]

Great discussion here about what to expect between Dal/OKC in round 2. I agree with most of this, and with those on this board who expect to see the bigs on Giddey at some point. 

https://youtu.be/5c0ZWUhT2lY?si=UYuAfHWBd1qB0ubH

[KillerLeft]

I know better than to write this post as I'm doing it, because minds have never been more closed about Hardaway, but...

...I'm low-key hopeful that he can make a difference in this series. Obviously, he won't help much if he's still in that awful slump, but if he's NOT, then the team sure could use the shooting. Like, a LOT. Even if he's not hitting, he's at least willing to attempt open shots, which is more than I can say for Exum in round 1. That's why I don't get down on Washington every time he misses - because just knowing their man is willing and unafraid to shoot keeps defenders honest. Hardaway will FOR SURE be another to check that box, and consequently must be accounted for in game plans, even more than DJJ, who has been hitting his fair share of open shots.

Green looks like his rhythm is starting to come around, and I'm all for that. But, the goal should kind of be for DJJ to be the ONLY guy out there the defense thinks they can get away with not guarding (kind of like what we're expecting with the Mavs and Giddey). If it's just him (DJJ), then I have a fair amount of confidence that he'll hit enough of the open ones, along with finding creases to cut into from time to time, that he'll be able to stay out there and keep playing his stellar defense. But, if they're having to play Exum and DJJ together, which seems more likely now that Kleber is out of the mix, AND Washington isn't hitting, well...that's a recipe for OKC to take the entire pick and roll away from Dallas.

Like it or not, we should all be hoping Hardaway is able to remedy that to some useful extent.