Game 55: San Antonio Spurs (11-43) vs. Dallas Mavericks (31-23)

[surfpuckmd]

I also don't get the Gaffod "hate" around here. After he was hyped up as the next coming of Christ after the first game, people are now realizing, that an 11/8 startin Center of a shitty Wizard's team is not that? Wow.

So, to make it clear: He is here as a backup to Lively and some kind of insurance, because Lively is kind of injury-prone so far. Sure, we would be pretty much screwed if Lively went down in the playoffs but Gafford could maybe hold down the fort for a little while. Other than that he is one of the best real backup centers in this league and can also make his Free-Throws, wich Lively can't. This could be huge.

Gafford was NOT meant to be the answer at Center but it was still perfect to trade for him because it really solidifies our bigs rotation and options:

Need a small-ball big and play all-five-out basketball to most liekly finish games? We have Kleber.
Need a modern, mobile big that can protect the paint and defend at the perimeter due to lateral quickness and is a lob-threat on offense? We have Lively.
Need strong rebounding and more conservative center play? We have Gafford.

This is perfect, because everybody has his shortcomings. You can't play anyone of them for 48 minutes and under any circumstances. Kleber is too small and injury-prone to play him heavy minutes, Lively is inexperienced, a little frail and can't hit Free-Throws. Gafford is too slow do defend and kind of an empty-stats-guy.

Much more important: Washington can not hit anything, he is not scoring yet but he is still part of our good lineups. Scrazy to think if he turns the corner on offense. My prognosis: Our best lineup will consist of Luka, Kyrie, Green, Washington and Lively/Kleber. Maybe Exum sees some minutes here or there. Having Gafford, Timmy, DJJ and Hardy as serviceable options is a luxury. This team will be great if we stay healthy.

I like this post a lot except for the Gafford "empty stats" declaration.

Rebounding, high efficiency finishing at the rim and rim protection are all valuable.  We're also 3-0 since the trade despite Lively only playing 17 minutes total in those 3 games.  I think we both agree that it was a good trade.  I will just protest the empty stats label on Gafford as long as we're winning.

[surfpuckmd]

Combining THJ and DJJ seems like the upgrade. I’m struggling to come up with any names that bring everything to the table

We want the size/length/athleticism of DJJ along with his perimeter/on ball defense. Combine that with a lights out shooter. 

Creation/distribution and dribble penetration seem like wishful thinking for this player. Also, a volume 3 level 3rd scorer that averages 25 seems like too much to ask. A player who can do everything is an all star. 

Bruce Brown is an available name i keep coming back to. There’s multiple players in that size/ability range that could be options. Are those players big enough? Green is undersized, so it would be nice to have someone closer to the size of DJJ 

I hope we stay patient. Running it back with THJ and DJJ is a good option as well to give us more time to find the right deal. Also, long term it’s possible Omax grows into that role

The player you seek is hopefully DJJ in 2025-2026 as a Dallas Maverick.  Despite the recent cold stretch, he's still hitting a career-high from 3.  He's also shooting quite a bit more often than in previous seasons.  He's improved his 3-point percentage every year for the past 5 years.  Hopefully, with continued practice, he can improve a little more.  Although I don't actually think he'll ever hit 40 %, I think he can get to 37-38%.  That would make him an elite bench role player.  I hope they can figure out how to keep him.  I like players who improve every season.

[HoosierDaddyKidd]

I’m not sure if you’re being sarcastic or not, but I’ll respond.

it is beyond obvious that I am talking about my projection of O-Max. The fully developed version, not the current. You do realize that there is literally not a single other player in the NBA at that size who can move the way he does, correct? Maybe Patrick Williams, but he never really developed. Maybe Jonathan Isaac, if he can stay healthy.

I get it, you have already decided he sucks. I think you’re wrong, so let’s just leave it at that. No need to chase all of my O-Max posts around, because trust me, there are going to be a lot of them! I’m sorry if my excitement about the future of a young Mavs player annoys you, but I don’t know what I can do about that, if anything.

Meant no disrespect and I'm not being sarcastic.  But I'm trying to see what you're seeing, but I don't. Is he some type of special physical specimen that we've never seen before, like LeBron when he came into the league?  If the Kings saw what you did, don't you think they would have kept him?  Honest question. And I don't chase your posts about him around. I was fine with what you said until you proclaimed O-Max to be a "Wemby Stopper" I hope he turns out like you want him to in all sincerity.

[KillerLeft]

Meant no disrespect and I'm not being sarcastic.  But I'm trying to see what you're seeing, but I don't. Is he some type of special physical specimen that we've never seen before, like LeBron when he came into the league?  If the Kings saw what you did, don't you think they would have kept him?  Honest question.

As a DEFENDER, yes - I think he’s a physical specimen with singular, unique attributes. You realize Dallas wasn’t the only team trying to get him at that spot. Right? Boston was pissed that the Mavs snaked him. 

I’m not saying it’s a forgone conclusion that he’ll be Dennis Rodman, but I am surprised that more people aren’t giving him a little more patience. Seriously, outside of Isaac and Patrick Williams, both of whom I mentioned in the last post, I don’t know of anyone currently in the league who compares, physically. He’s big, but without all that counterproductive bulk that makes players so useless. He’s almost 7’, with a 7’2” wingspan, but moves like a 6’5” guy! That’s not intriguing to you???? That’s the prototypical dream 4, to me.

---

Look at the difference PJ Washington is making out there on defense (the truly impactful result of the trade, so far) - and realize that he’s not nearly as physically imposing as O-Max.

[dirkfansince1998]

I like this post a lot except for the Gafford "empty stats" declaration.

Rebounding, high efficiency finishing at the rim and rim protection are all valuable.  We're also 3-0 since the trade despite Lively only playing 17 minutes total in those 3 games.  I think we both agree that it was a good trade.  I will just protest the empty stats label on Gafford as long as we're winning.

I am talking about things like DFG% compared to his block numbers. 5blk in a game. One would think that he is an elite rim protector. But his DFG% around the rim is average for a big. Add a below average DFG% outside the paint. Especially from 3 and the defensive impact probably isn't as high as blks+reb indicate.
That goes along with the +/-. Mavs are winning but looking at the lineup data Gafford's minutes have been among the worst. Looking at the first five games of the winnning streak Maxi lead the team in +/-. Yesterday it was Lively.

That's not Gafford bashing. Just factual information. What people do with it is up to them. For me it indicates that Gafford probably isn't as good as the boxscore suggests.

Doesn't mean that I am completly out on him. He is the big bruiser type that can give them 10-20 minutes per game depending on the matchup. Instead of having a fatal flaw that could be exposed the Mavs finally have a counter. I just don't think he is even in the same conversation as Lively (or even Maxi) when it comes to on court value for the Mavs.

[HoosierDaddyKidd]

As a DEFENDER, yes - I think he’s a physical specimen with singular, unique attributes. You realize Dallas wasn’t the only team trying to get him at that spot. Right? Boston was pissed that the Mavs snaked him. 

I’m not saying it’s a forgone conclusion that he’ll be Dennis Rodman, but I am surprised that more people aren’t giving him a little more patience. Seriously, outside of Isaac and Patrick Williams, both of whom I mentioned in the last post, I don’t know of anyone currently in the league who compares, physically. He’s big, but without all that counterproductive bulk that makes players so useless. He’s almost 7’, with a 7’2” wingspan, but moves like a 6’5” guy! That’s not intriguing to you???? That’s the prototypical dream 4, to me.

---

Look at the difference PJ Washington is making out there on defense (the truly impactful result of the trade, so far) - and realize that he’s not nearly as physically imposing as O-Max.

Fair enough. We'll see if he becomes this defensive demon you're forecasting for him.

[KillerLeft]

@HoosierDaddy…remember how we used to look at Jonathan Isaac before he was hurt all the time? That’s what I hope O-Max can be: Jonathan Isaac without the he injury history.

He might never get there, but physically, he is one of maybe 3-4 players to enter the league since then with any chance to become that guy. That’s not something to take for granted, imho.

[HoosierDaddyKidd]

@HoosierDaddy…remember how we used to look at Jonathan Isaac before he was hurt all the time? That’s what I hope O-Max can be: Jonathan Isaac without the he injury history.

He might never get there, but physically, he is one of maybe 3-4 players to enter the league since then with any chance to become that guy. That’s not something to take for granted, imho.

Issac is slowly working his way back. He looked pretty good vs the Knicks last night. (Knicks are really banged up, however) He's a difference-maker when healthy.

[SleepingHero]

C'mon man, how is OMax going to stop Wemby when far better players can't? I can understand rooting for the guy, but sheesh, hyperbole much?

Omax has the prototypical archetype of a player who CAN stop Wemby. He's large enough to contest but fluid enough to stop his guard skills.

If OMAX gets better, I don't see why it's unreasonable to believe he can be a Wemby stopper. Hell Lively and PJ already stopped Wemby last night.

He was 3/9 when guarded by both of those two.

[Scott41theMavs]

I am talking about things like DFG% compared to his block numbers. 5blk in a game. One would think that he is an elite rim protector. But his DFG% around the rim is average for a big. Add a below average DFG% outside the paint. Especially from 3 and the defensive impact probably isn't as high as blks+reb indicate.
That goes along with the +/-. Mavs are winning but looking at the lineup data Gafford's minutes have been among the worst. Looking at the first five games of the winnning streak Maxi lead the team in +/-. Yesterday it was Lively.

That's not Gafford bashing. Just factual information. What people do with it is up to them. For me it indicates that Gafford probably isn't as good as the boxscore suggests.

Doesn't mean that I am completly out on him. He is the big bruiser type that can give them 10-20 minutes per game depending on the matchup. Instead of having a fatal flaw that could be exposed the Mavs finally have a counter. I just don't think he is even in the same conversation as Lively (or even Maxi) when it comes to on court value for the Mavs.

The bottom line of all this for me is that Gafford is a great backup for Lively. I think he's so good at it that he really isn't overpaid as such. 

On the BR board, there was this huge debate about whether Gafford should start over Lively. Thankfully, folks on this board are a lot smarter than that. 

Man, do I love me some Dereck Lively. How many people thought he would be a majorly difference-making rookie? Many thought he would be a complete bust. Oops.

[surfpuckmd]

I am talking about things like DFG% compared to his block numbers. 5blk in a game. One would think that he is an elite rim protector. But his DFG% around the rim is average for a big. Add a below average DFG% outside the paint. Especially from 3 and the defensive impact probably isn't as high as blks+reb indicate.
That goes along with the +/-. Mavs are winning but looking at the lineup data Gafford's minutes have been among the worst. Looking at the first five games of the winnning streak Maxi lead the team in +/-. Yesterday it was Lively.

That's not Gafford bashing. Just factual information. What people do with it is up to them. For me it indicates that Gafford probably isn't as good as the boxscore suggests.

Doesn't mean that I am completly out on him. He is the big bruiser type that can give them 10-20 minutes per game depending on the matchup. Instead of having a fatal flaw that could be exposed the Mavs finally have a counter. I just don't think he is even in the same conversation as Lively (or even Maxi) when it comes to on court value for the Mavs.

This is an interesting discussion.  

I think Gafford will have a positive impact for us defensively because of a different reason.  He isn't as quick as Maxi or PJ and so won't be able to contest as effectively.  He will, however, be in better rebounding position to secure the defensive rebound.  We were the league's 2nd-worst rebounding team prior to the trade.  It was a huge liability.

Since the trade, we have secured 31 more rebounds than our opponent. Gafford is why.  Gafford is averaging 12 boards per 21 minutes for us.  Gafford won't be able to guard the perimeter like our other rotation bigs.  He'll be the best defensive rebounder we have though and that will make him a net positive on defense.  He will also guard the rim significantly better than DP.  We acquired him to be a backup center and I think he'll thrive in that role.  He's held his own as a starter so far.

[Scott41theMavs]

This is an interesting discussion.  

I think Gafford will have a positive impact for us defensively because of a different reason.  He isn't as quick as Maxi or PJ and so won't be able to contest as effectively.  He will, however, be in better rebounding position to secure the defensive rebound.  We were the league's 2nd-worst rebounding team prior to the trade.  It was a huge liability.

Since the trade, we have secured 31 more rebounds than our opponent. Gafford is why.  Gafford is averaging 12 boards per 21 minutes for us.  Gafford won't be able to guard the perimeter like our other rotation bigs.  He'll be the best defensive rebounder we have though and that will make him a net positive on defense.  He will also guard the rim significantly better than DP.  We acquired him to be a backup center and I think he'll thrive in that role.  He's held his own as a starter so far.

I think PJ has a big role in the improved rebounding as well with his boxing out. 

And you alluded to what so many of us Mavs fans have been waiting for for years - Powell as a garbage time/injury player only. Tears of joy.

[surfpuckmd]

I think PJ has a big role in the improved rebounding as well with his boxing out. 

And you alluded to what so many of us Mavs fans have been waiting for for years - Powell as a garbage time/injury player only. Tears of joy.

No doubt.  Having PJ as the starting 4 helps us in rebounding as Grant Williams and DJJ are just too small to effectively rebound.

[dirkfansince1998]

This is an interesting discussion.  

I think Gafford will have a positive impact for us defensively because of a different reason.  He isn't as quick as Maxi or PJ and so won't be able to contest as effectively.  He will, however, be in better rebounding position to secure the defensive rebound.  We were the league's 2nd-worst rebounding team prior to the trade.  It was a huge liability.

Since the trade, we have secured 31 more rebounds than our opponent. Gafford is why.  Gafford is averaging 12 boards per 21 minutes for us.  Gafford won't be able to guard the perimeter like our other rotation bigs.  He'll be the best defensive rebounder we have though and that will make him a net positive on defense.  He will also guard the rim significantly better than DP.  We acquired him to be a backup center and I think he'll thrive in that role.  He's held his own as a starter so far.

A big rebounder can help but it only matters if you can actually force misses. It's a trade off. Sometimes it might be worth it. In others games it is going to be a big issue. So far undersized lineups with Kleber at center are way better on defense. Even if the rebounding is worse.
I think the Powell comparisation is a good one. Gafford brings Powell's hustle and motor but in a bigger body. With more upside because he still has a lot of room to improve when it comes to the execution of the scheme.

[mvossman]

This is an interesting discussion.  

I think Gafford will have a positive impact for us defensively because of a different reason.  He isn't as quick as Maxi or PJ and so won't be able to contest as effectively.  He will, however, be in better rebounding position to secure the defensive rebound.  We were the league's 2nd-worst rebounding team prior to the trade.  It was a huge liability.

Since the trade, we have secured 31 more rebounds than our opponent. Gafford is why.  Gafford is averaging 12 boards per 21 minutes for us.  Gafford won't be able to guard the perimeter like our other rotation bigs.  He'll be the best defensive rebounder we have though and that will make him a net positive on defense.  He will also guard the rim significantly better than DP.  We acquired him to be a backup center and I think he'll thrive in that role.  He's held his own as a starter so far.

Its interesting because Iztok's article on the trades mentioned defensive rebounding being a negative of Gafford.  He is an elite offensive rebounder, but the team is worse defensive rebounding when he is on the court, partially due to his intent to contest every shot in the paint.  We have not seen that issue yet as he is averaging 20 rebounds per 36 and 13 on the defensive end, which are both insane numbers.

[HoosierDaddyKidd]

Its interesting because Iztok's article on the trades mentioned defensive rebounding being a negative of Gafford.  He is an elite offensive rebounder, but the team is worse defensive rebounding when he is on the court, partially due to his intent to contest every shot in the paint.  We have not seen that issue yet as he is averaging 20 rebounds per 36 and 13 on the defensive end, which are both insane numbers.

He's been great. Need to find out if it's sustainable. Especially when Lively gets back to 100%. His minutes might decrease.

[mvossman]

He's been great. Need to find out if it's sustainable. Especially when Lively gets back to 100%. His minutes might decrease.

For energy guys like Gafford reduction in minutes and second unit duty only make them better. There has to be some degree of regression from a rebounding standpoint. He is nearly double his career rate

[SleepingHero]

For energy guys like Gafford reduction in minutes and second unit duty only make them better. There has to be some degree of regression from a rebounding standpoint. He is nearly double his career rate

It's certainly likely his rebounding rate will fall. But I don't know, I think there's an outside chance that Gafford filled this desperate need for a high energy rebounder the Mavs have lacked since 2011. 

There were so many times over the years I remember watching and thinking that there were a ton of rebounds available but the Mavs couldn't get either due to lack of size or hustle. 

Maybe Gafford's powers are just so amplified here that his rebounding rate has soared and will stay there.

Unlikely, but who knows?

[mvossman]

It's certainly likely his rebounding rate will fall. But I don't know, I think there's an outside chance that Gafford filled this desperate need for a high energy rebounder the Mavs have lacked since 2011. 

There were so many times over the years I remember watching and thinking that there were a ton of rebounds available but the Mavs couldn't get either due to lack of size or hustle. 

Maybe Gafford's powers are just so amplified here that his rebounding rate has soared and will stay there.

Unlikely, but who knows?

Unlikely he can possibly stay at the current rate, but god news this team has left a lot of rebounds on the table and I would expect Gafford to have a higher rate here than in the past.  Its not just rebounds, he is scoring nearly 10 points more per 36 than his career average.  Thats another thing that will probably regress some, but will likely be higher here due to the Luka effect.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I will say that Gafford has a history of his on court impact trailing his prolific stats.  Its not just 3 games, its a career trend.  Does not mean it will play out that way here, but it is something to keep an eye on.  Is that bashing?

I don't think its bashing.  I do wonder if it is true.  I think 82 games is a better way to look at this than B-Ref. because you get more context.

For instance, 82 games shows the O-Rating/D-Rating and Net, which this year is 117.7/125.2 for a net of -7.5.  But, they also show that when he's ON Court the team scores 4.9 more points per 100 possessions and gives up 1.8 points more per 100 possessions.  The team ON nets out to -7.7 scoring 115 and giving up 122.7 (so similar to the O-Rating methodology).  But, we also get to see what it looks like when he's off.  The team is -10.9 when he's off.  So, Washington just sucks.  They suck less by 3.1 points per 100 possessions when Gafford plays.  His history is one where that ON number has been bad most seasons (in fact, the last time it was good was his first 1/2 season in Washington).  But, that Net number has been more positive than negative during his time in Washington.

They also attempt to track what they call his 'net positional production'.  The last four seasons they think he outperforms his direct opponent +7.3, +2.6, -0.7 and -4.5.  As you point out, his own production is just massively good every year (like top decile).  But, his opponent production is also high (also top decile...in the wrong direction).  He's managed to hold his own net-net on this metric until this season, but opposing bigs put up good numbers against him

I think you have to put all of this together to try to get some context.  Washington has tended to be bad when he's on the court (but worse than bad when he's off).  He's capable of dominating his direct matchup and put up big numbers.  But he often gives up big numbers (and this season, he's giving up bigger numbers than he gets).  We don't know if that is an effort issue or maybe he's spending so much time cleaning up messes elsewhere that his direct matchup goes to town.  Or, maybe it is 'empty stats' as I've read a little here.

What we do know is so far in Dallas, the team is +3.4 when he's out the court...great, we've closed a huge gap that existed in the non-Lively minutes.  BUT, he's only +2.2 net (which means Lively and Maxi have been even better through three games).  In Washington he was bad (on a bad team), but not as bad as his backup.  Here, he's been good on a 3-0 team, but not as good as the player in front of him.  82 games only has his first two games so far, but they show he's destroying his direct opponent 52.6 (which is off the charts) to 25.6 (which is too high).  It will be interesting to see if he continues to be 'energized' here like he was when he was traded to Washington, or whether that will wear off over time.  

I suspect it will be possible to play him off the court against certain matchups in the playoffs (but we have Maxi).  But, there are certain matchups where his bulk (compared to Maxi) might be valuable.  I suspect Kidd will do a little bit of test-driving to see what he has exactly and it won't put Gafford in the best light while this is going on.  It is nice to have the optionality he brings and to have an answer for certain matchups that we just didn't have before.  I also think playing more against backups and with Lu-Kai will be very beneficial.  But, he's not going to threaten Lively once Lively is healthy.  Lively is the savior.  Gafford is a top-five backup centers (which is by nature a flawed position or they wouldn't be backups).