In Nico We Trust

[DanSchwartzgan]

I'm making this a thread because I want to concentrate more on the "how" of last night than the "who".  We can debate the "who" of things other places (and probably will  for years to come).  But the "how" was amazing.  It was creative.  It used the rules well.  It understood the needs of the teams they dealt with.  It was non-linear and it didn't burn a single asset (in fact, it added the ability to use the MLE or stay far enough below the 1st apron to do S&T's).

If you break things down, this was 10 for 12/24 (and they got their guy anyway) plus Bertans for Holmes.  

I do either of those deals all day.  It is incredible value for 10...hard stop.  Plus, Holmes has a chance at helping the rebounding/paint defense need we have and Bertans stood no chance of doing that.  We turned 10 and a trash contract into two guys with top 20 grades on some boards and a center who will get minutes.  It was probably better than any of the realistic trade down scenarios anyone here posted.

Many hated the idea of a trade-down for the sake of dumping a contract. (this is the creative and the non-linear part).  I said several times that you have to paint the entire picture that results from such a trade down before I pan the idea.  Doing this as a July deal was very creative.  It opened a whole world of possibilities either on draft night or going forward.  

They understood perfectly what OKC wanted and felt good that Orlando wouldn't scuttle their plan.  They also understood what Sacramento wanted and trade-one set them up perfectly to get an asset for eating a contract Sac needed to move, but also one Dallas could use.  Relationships baby.

You can tell from the interviews that this was Nico's baby.  He was the engineer of 10 for 12 and he told Prosper "I told you I would make this happen".  It was a well thought out plan and it fell into place perfectly.

Nico apparently has a type...heralded HS player who falls because he's not as effective as the hype in his year after HS.  It worked with Hardy and there really isn't any reason it won't work with Lively.  Drafting an older role player once you get to the 20's is a trend that will continue under the new CBA.  Prosper has a shot at being a premium role player.  No matter who you think they might have gotten instead, Lively, Prosper and Hardy make it look like the Mav's are taking the draft seriously and are competent at it.

Looking ahead, I take Nico at his word that they aren't done.  The way I look at this, a playoff team probably can't rely on Lively, Prosper and even Hardy yet.  So, the only playoff ready grown-ups are 

Bigs:    Maxi, Holmes
Wings: THJ, Green, Reggie
BH's:    Luka, Irving

Until the kids are more seasoned, we probably need one more grownup.  Next up...the Reggie guarantee decision.

[ItsGoTime]

Great post Dan. Something else that needs to be said is Bertans, in order to non-guarantee his contract has to sit the bench for most of the season. That means he’s as good as dead money taking up a roster spot all season. That adds to the de-valuing of Bertans and makes the trade more reasonable.

I thought that he would be much better trade bait at the TDL after WE used up all his sitting time and the new team could kick the tires on him to evaluate if they want to keep him and what size contract he would command.

Wish we could’ve extracted at least 1 SRP out of the trade cause I think we could use a few to sweeten some pots next week, but I still like the deal!

[Chicagojk]

Big props to the whole organization last night. I made a comment a week ago saying I just want to say "boy, that was creative". It has been a long time, but last night they did it.

Time will tell if their path was the right one and if they made the right picks. But for last night, they get a job well done from me.

[Nowitzki Way]

Excellent write up DanS.

Last night was a masterclass by the Mavs. Well thought out plans that were executed to perfection.

When you look at the HOW and not the WHO, i dont see why any Mavs fans would be upset.

I kept seeing people in the thread upset and say things like, "Lively is raw. Lively will be a bust." Then we have," Whitmore was there and we blew it."  Or "Leonard Miller was there, we should have taken him instead of O-Max." Etc. Etc.

The truth is, its a draft. 19 and 20 year olds. They are all raw. No one knows how these guys will play out. But they drafted the types of traits and body types they needed for the modern NBA. Excellent job by this front office last night.

[Mavs2021]

One thing I´ll disagree with. I think Hardy will be firmly in the play-off rotation.

Also he has to be for the Mavs to be a contender. He´ll have to make the 2nd year leap.

I think trading THJ to clear minutes for Hardy is the only path to contention. Not sure it will succeed, but it´s the only logical path.

[DanSchwartzgan]

One thing I´ll disagree with. I think Hardy will be firmly in the play-off rotation.

Also he has to be for the Mavs to be a contender. He´ll have to make the 2nd year leap.

I think trading THJ to clear minutes for Hardy is the only path to contention. Not sure it will succeed, but it´s the only logical path.

First of all, I like the "new" Mavs2021.  Hope it lasts.

I hope you are right, but suspect the role will be a smaller one.  I'd expect the bigger pop for Hardy the year after.

The main thing I wanted to address was the "only logical path" comment regarding Hardaway.  I'm torn here.  He played well last season and I like his contract term as an asset next summer.  I'm certainly not heartbroken if he's moved, but my leaning is if they do something to clear minutes for Hardy, moving Reggie is also a viable path.

[Scott41theMavs]

First of all, I like the "new" Mavs2021.  Hope it lasts.

I hope you are right, but suspect the role will be a smaller one.  I'd expect the bigger pop for Hardy the year after.

The main thing I wanted to address was the "only logical path" comment regarding Hardaway.  I'm torn here.  He played well last season and I like his contract term as an asset next summer.  I'm certainly not heartbroken if he's moved, but my leaning is if they do something to clear minutes for Hardy, moving Reggie is also a viable path.

I think that Prosper is a bust if he isn't in the 8-man rotation by the playoffs, and - hint - I don't think he's a bust.

Hardy is the closest thing to a potential star that the Mavs have on their roster outside of Luka and Kyrie. Once again, he, too, should be in the playoff rotation. The one thing Kidd is good at is developing... kids. The only way I see Hardy not being in the playoff 8-man is if he's injured.

Of course Lively isn't going to be ready for 8-man minutes this season, but if he gets meaningful minutes in the playoffs, that means Kidd did great work.

Not sure what the Mavs are going to end up doing in the next two weeks, but I think most of the "grown-ups" currently on roster - Reggie, THJ, McGee, maybe even Powell if he won't take the minimum - are gone. Nico did well on draft night, but there's a lot more work to do in trades and free agency. Kyrie is the key. If they throw all of their money out the window by giving him a full 4-5 year max, that's going to be killer. $40 mil a year is way more than enough and already makes his contract arguably the single worst in the NBA given his reputation. If they keep Kyrie going less than that amount, Nico should be the frontrunner for GM of the year. The problem with Kyrie is that 1) he doesn't fit with Luka, and 2) that contract is going to be untradeable. A creative and intelligent coach could figure out the Luka/Kyrie mesh, but that's not Kidd. The smartest move right now would be 1) to hardball Kyrie down to a much, much smaller yearly number, 2) if he doesn't like that, tell him to go find his team and work out a sign-and-trade, 3) if he does accept it, start the season with Kidd as coach, fire him mid-season, and go get the coach that can make Lukai work.

[Jakeospikez]

Yup this was some big brain GMing regardless of the outcome of the players. The trade back taking advantage of a high priority player in Wallace was great and taking advantage of the new CBA to buy back into the mid 20s in a deep draft was top tier. The player picks are more on the scouts plus coaches finishing the job but all signs point to the 2 picks killing their private workouts and having great work ethic so I don't really see either busting. The only way I don't see Lively get playtime midway through the season is if it takes him a long time to pick up the defensive assignments. His role on offense should be pretty simple early on. His rim protection is nba ready and both players have nba ready bodies already.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I think that Prosper is a bust if he isn't in the 8-man rotation by the playoffs, and - hint - I don't think he's a bust.

Hardy is the closest thing to a potential star that the Mavs have on their roster outside of Luka and Kyrie. Once again, he, too, should be in the playoff rotation.  

I'll root for you to be right on both and totally disagree with your bust-or-not timeline on Prosper.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Every year during draft time, people get so hyped on prospects it seems they forget what has happened for the last 20-30 years they've been following the NBA.

Lively and Prosper will get on the court but if you're counting on them to be in the top 8 man rotation next year...you're not living in reality. It would be a pleasant surprise if they're big contributors even in their second season (the 2025 season). These guys are gonna be on the Josh Green timeline.

In a vacuum, I love what the Mavs did last night. However, I dont expect the two picks to make much difference for the Mavs 2024 chances.

[michaeltex]

The FO pulled a night that was "Draft Day"-esque in my opinion. Took an uninspiring draft position and turned it in to (potentially) three significant contributors that all address a significant area of need. I have some hope that maybe it won't be business as usual after all.

I, for one, am happy with the new blood and potential. I'm looking forward to seeing what FA moves are on tap and how the new team blends together.

[SleepingHero]

are we allowed to say that Kristaps Porzingis turned into Kyrie Irving, Dereck Lively II, Richaun Holmes and OMax Prosper

https://twitter.com/all_things_mavs/stat...62433?s=46&t=4w35gotNXtBJnqxbaL7e9w


-----------------

Taking it a step further, Kristaps+DFS+2029 FRP turned into Kyrie, Lively, OMP, and Holmes.

[MFFL]

First of all, I like the "new" Mavs2021.  Hope it lasts.

The "new" Mavs2021 is pretty awesome!

[mvossman]

I loved the trade down and the follow up Holmes trade. That was quality GMing, which we have not seen a lot of. But I am struggling with what the direction is. It does not seem like Kyrie and Lively are on the same timeline. Kyrie is a win now player, and Lively is a win later player. Do we really have enough assets to go both ways? If Holmes can play like he did a couple of years ago and start for us, then things make more sense, but I am skeptical that is the case. Right now Powell seems like the best bet to start at center and we still desperately need a starting 4. If we are going to take a couple of seasons to fill those holes, then I don't really understand what the point of Kyrie is?

[Tyler]

Kyrie is a win now player, and Lively is a win later player.  Do we really have enough assets to go both ways?  

I know it's fashionable to MinMax rosters by either going all-in on tanking (OKC) or all-in on win-now trades (Phoenix). But to me, the mark of a truly good GM is to find that balance between winning now AND later. With moves like this draft night for the future and Kyrie/FA for the present, I think Nico is proving that he's got the right mindset. We're lucky to have him.

[omahen]

I loved the trade down and the follow up Holmes trade.  That was quality GMing, which we have not seen a lot of.  But I am struggling with what the direction is.  It does not seem like Kyrie and Lively are on the same timeline.  Kyrie is a win now player, and Lively is a win later player.  Do we really have enough assets to go both ways?  If Holmes can play like he did a couple of years ago and start for us, then things make more sense, but I am skeptical that is the case.  Right now Powell seems like the best bet to start at center and we still desperately need a starting 4.  If we are going to take a couple of seasons to fill those holes, then I don't really understand what the point of Kyrie is?

These are my thoughts exactly. I totally agree moves were creative and addressed some issues. But, what is this teams general direction? They make a win now move for a player who you can't realistically count on for more than a couple of seasons. Rest of season clearly showed Mavs lack a couple of solid starters. Than Mavs suddenly do a 180 and start building for the future. I liked Holmes three years ago, but boy I was rejected here when proposing various Holmes trade ideas in past years. Now even I am not convinced he can return to be the starter level contributor he was. Getting that TE was great. Getting something for it was great. But cap space (or salary reduction capability) will have value this summer - is Holmes and 24 really the best possible outcome given Mavs needs.

I am not trying to condemn them, but I am far from declaring this summer a success, before seeing the final result. To address the thread title - Nico has not done much in his three years to have my trust. 

To be fair, there were literally zero player moves on draft night, outside the ones made by Dallas. A couple of (big) trades happened before draft. But, the FO is there to make things happen. Looking forward to see rest of the summer.

P.S.: I just don't share Dans belief Luka is here for four years no matter what. I think one more season like last year and he demands a trade.

[mvossman]

I know it's fashionable to MinMax rosters by either going all-in on tanking (OKC) or all-in on win-now trades (Phoenix). But to me, the mark of a truly good GM is to find that balance between winning now AND later. With moves like this draft night for the future and Kyrie/FA for the present, I think Nico is proving that he's got the right mindset. We're lucky to have him.

I think teams that have managed their assets competently over several years have the luxury of aiming at both win now and later.  But I don't think a team that has been mishandled as badly as the Mavs are in a position to effectively do both.  There is an argument to be made that if we can get a decent S&T haul for Kyrie (like an unprotected first and a decent young prospect) we should probably pull that trigger and plan on being good in two or three years.

[cow]

It worked with Hardy and there really isn't any reason it won't work with Lively. 

Like your post, Dan, and of course you.  I also like what the Mavs did last night.  I don't know why, but I really hate how you phrased this.  It just feels way too definitive and Lively could just as easily be starter, bench player, or bust as he could be star.     I don't have a dog in the Lively conversation as I know next to nothing about college hoops.  Maybe that's me overthinking what Hardy is or will become shortly, but that seems like some unfair pressure to put on the 12th pick in the draft.  Ditto for all the Tyson Chandler comparisons.

[audiosway]

I said last night just how shocked I was at the moves and that I loved them. Great writeup Dan. I love seeing them finally use the draft as an asset rather than a giveaway. Smart teams build through the draft. And Nico did it masterfully. As you said, even if the moves don't work out I'm totally fine with that. Not all of them will. But, to see them build this way if exciting.

I'm really excited about both of these young players. Lively really came on as an anchor later in the season. I think he could be that for the Mavs for many years to come. And I've wanted Holmes for a while. I have a feeling he just needs a change of scenery.

And yeah, the "new" Mavs2021 is definitely pleasant to see. He's always wanted to build through the draft so I can see why he's happy.

[Reunion Mav]

Dan I love the how of last night and the emphasis on the how. I enjoyed your public service announcement to refocus us that this was only the beginning of executing the plan….and that came before things went so well!
Following this site last night, speaking of how, was just the best way to keep informed. I turned off the TV and Mavs.com and just trusted our site. Many posters did great work as you Dan and others have acknowledged. I like Dallas Maverick who does seem pretty connected to an inside front office set of views and contributions. I don’t even need twitter to follow what I care about most on twitter.
Thanks Mavericks fans for a great night. I look forward to what comes next with more confidence in our leaders in the front office and on this forum.