Wood You Consider Spending Over the First Apron

[DanSchwartzgan]

Now I am a dummy, but it seems possible that they could have agreed to a sign and trade with someone at the deadline.

He did say he'd tell us the real story at a more appropriate time (tweet since deleted).  He also said he "beat ya'lls trade rumors" right after the TDL.  Who freaking knows.

If there is an Over-MLE market for Wood, Dallas could benefit.  If there isn't, this was just a waste of a late first.  If you presume Lopez, Vuc and Poeltl return to their teams, the FA class at center is just awful. So, you never know.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Schwartz doesn't have much at the top of this draft class that I can see.  Cason Wallace and Darik Whitehead is about all I've found. .

Free agents and trade targets who've gotten some discussion time around here and are Schwartz (Excel) guys include Collins, Poeltl, Middleton, Herro, Olynyk, Bagley, Nick Richards, Harrison Barnes, Bitadze, Naz Reid, Bey, Drew Eubanks, DFS and Okongwu.

BTW, if I was going to go to the trouble of a full-on “Summer of Schwartz”, it would probably include Poeltl and Collins up front and selecting Wallace with the pick.

Unfortunately, that scenario probably means moving on from Kyrie (maybe to Toronto as they can get to $40mm if they move on from Poeltl, Trent and FVV).  I wonder if that is the team Chris Haynes is talking about having interest in Kyrie.  Another option might be FVV/Poeltl for Kyrie (now we’ve left the Summer of Schwartz discussion as Wallace and FVV would make no sense).

[Jakeospikez]

Nice post, definitely seems like a plausible outcome. Makes sense to base something around the interest in THJ from the Cavs at the TDL plus their huge need for volume 3pt shooting from bigs/wings. Wood was showcased quite a bit before the TDL and then the playtime went way down after it so maybe there is something to the theories that some deals are already sort of in place prepped for the offseason. I'd like it even more if they could do one of those draft day agreements with a 3rd/4th team to accommodate a trade down with the players actually moving once FA starts up so the Mavs can make use of the Bertans/Bullock expirings.

[SkenfromLMF]

With this process in mind...

Dallas trades McGee Bertans and Bullock to PHX; Hardaway to ATL
ATL trades Cappella, Collins, Bey and #15 & #46 to Dallas
PHX trades Ayton to ATL; #52 to Dallas

Phoenix creates the space they need by letting go of Bertans (S.W) and Bullock (guaranteed amount); probably real light on this part of the deal: (See Below)
Atlanta saves nearly 5 million and gets the two best players in the trade
Dallas takes a bath financially from the non-guaranteed amount, but is relatively even if they would not cut those salaries.

Holding 15 would allow Dallas to flip it to Brooklyn for 21, 22, and 51 (owing Brooklyn ~ 670 in value)
Dallas flips 21 to Indiana for 29* & 32 and 55 (29 goes to PHX above) Indy loses about 80pts in value
Dallas flips 22, 46, 51, 52, 55 to Charlotte for 27, 34, 39, 41 Charlotte loses about 40 pts in value
Dallas sends BRK 34 & 39 for a loss of ~100 pts in value but gets the Nets the best pick in the process at 15

Dallas holds 10, 27, 32, 41 at the draft.

Damn my head hurts

[Jym]

With this process in mind...

Dallas trades McGee Bertans and Bullock to PHX; Hardaway to ATL
ATL trades Cappella, Collins, Bey and #15 & #46 to Dallas
PHX trades Ayton to ATL; #52 to Dallas

Phoenix creates the space they need by letting go of Bertans (S.W) and Bullock (guaranteed amount); probably real light on this part of the deal: (See Below)
Atlanta saves nearly 5 million and gets the two best players in the trade
Dallas takes a bath financially from the non-guaranteed amount, but is relatively even if they would not cut those salaries.

Holding 15 would allow Dallas to flip it to Brooklyn for 21, 22, and 51 (owing Brooklyn ~ 670 in value)
Dallas flips 21 to Indiana for 29* & 32 and 55 (29 goes to PHX above) Indy loses about 80pts in value
Dallas flips 22, 46, 51, 52, 55 to Charlotte for 27, 34, 39, 41 Charlotte loses about 40 pts in value
Dallas sends BRK 34 & 39 for a loss of ~100 pts in value but gets the Nets the best pick in the process at 15

Dallas holds 10, 27, 32, 41 at the draft.

Damn my head hurts

Still don't get why people think the Suns will dump Ayton for trash 
Not happening

[DallasMaverick]

Still don't get why people think the Suns will dump Ayton for trash 
Not happening

Maybe a couple of reasons:

1. He's overpaid by $15m / year.  Big, negative contract vs. on-court production.  Think Bertans, but twice as much money.

2. The new CBA really, really penalizes under-performing contracts.  You can't just overpay players and build a contender.  It requires a new kind of finesse.  Essentially, Ayton's contract is severely hampering any hope of improving their roster.

[Jym]

Maybe a couple of reasons:

1. He's overpaid by $15m / year.  Big, negative contract vs. on-court production.  Think Bertans, but twice as much money.

2. The new CBA really, really penalizes under-performing contracts.  You can't just overpay players and build a contender.  It requires a new kind of finesse.  Essentially, Ayton's contract is severely hampering any hope of improving their roster.

By that talk I was expecting his contract to max out at like 45 million or something 
30 mil this year and 35.5 mil in 25-26 
Maybe I'm crazy but that seems perfectly reasonable for a 18/10 big man with more than adequate defense. Actually one of the better defending big men that can score

[Scott41theMavs]

By that talk I was expecting his contract to max out at like 45 million or something 
30 mil this year and 35.5 mil in 25-26 
Maybe I'm crazy but that seems perfectly reasonable for a 18/10 big man with more than adequate defense. Actually one of the better defending big men that can score

Um, with all due respect, did you watch him in the playoffs the past two years? 

I just can't fathom this narrative of Ayton as being a defensive plus at the center position, especially given that salary. And while I think 2021's comment about drafting centers was a little over the top, if you're paying a center that much in 2023, it had better be for the reincarnation of Tim Duncan (who would be a center in today's game) with a 3-pointer. That's not Ayton.

[Jym]

Um, with all due respect, did you watch him in the playoffs the past two years? 

I just can't fathom this narrative of Ayton as being a defensive plus at the center position, especially given that salary. And while I think 2021's comment about drafting centers was a little over the top, if you're paying a center that much in 2023, it had better be for the reincarnation of Tim Duncan (who would be a center in today's game) with a 3-pointer. That's not Ayton.

Defense seemed fine to me.
The bigger fail with him was his lack of aggression to score when he had a clear mismatch

[The Jom]

Um, with all due respect, did you watch him in the playoffs the past two years? 

I just can't fathom this narrative of Ayton as being a defensive plus at the center position, especially given that salary. And while I think 2021's comment about drafting centers was a little over the top, if you're paying a center that much in 2023, it had better be for the reincarnation of Tim Duncan (who would be a center in today's game) with a 3-pointer. That's not Ayton.

This is the majority view here. Even Tim Duncan isn’t worth real money in today’s nba unless he learns to play 5 out. I can’t agree. But we’ll see.

[Jym]

This is the majority view here. Even Tim Duncan isn’t worth real money in today’s nba unless he learns to play 5 out. I can’t agree. But we’ll see.

I guess it's easy for people to forget that the Suns nearly won a title in 20-21 with a 22 year old Ayton 
By a lot of the measures he was their best and most impactful player during that run

[DallasMaverick]

I guess it's easy for people to forget that the Suns nearly won a title in 20-21 with a 22 year old Ayton 
By a lot of the measures he was their best and most impactful player during that run

Right.

And two years ago, when the Mavs almost made it to the finals, Dwight Powell was their starting center.

[Jym]

Right.

And two years ago, when the Mavs almost made it to the finals, Dwight Powell was their starting center.

Seems a little silly to compare the impact of 16 & 12 in 36 mpg to 3 & 3 in 14 mpg

[SkenfromLMF]

I guess it's easy for people to forget that the Suns nearly won a title in 20-21 with a 22 year old Ayton 
By a lot of the measures he was their best and most impactful player during that run

Rumors are those people would include the Suns F/O

[Hypermav]

Right.

And two years ago, when the Mavs almost made it to the finals, Dwight Powell was their starting center.

Sad but true.

[Dahlsim]

DallasMaverick Wrote:
Right.

And two years ago, when the Mavs almost made it to the finals, Dwight Powell was their starting center.

Seems a little silly to compare the impact of 16 & 12 in 36 mpg to 3 & 3 in 14 mpg

It's all about the chosen style of play as to which players and positions are leveraged and featured, especially in the offense.

Not many people thought in or out of the NBA thought a center with Nikola Jokic's athleticism and body type could be the dominant force in today's NBA. In terms of projecting value, I mean he was drafted #41   
Why was Nikola Jokic drafted so low in the NBA Draft? | Marca

If Jokic wasn't utilized the way he is so well featured in Denver's offense he might not ever have become as dominant a force as he is not.  Big props and credit to Mike Malone and his coaching staff. 

Not every NBA coach today has made the adjustment to how to use a given center's talent in the new 3-point space and pace era.  In fact my observation is most have not but this new Jokic era will probably cause a few coaches to consider the possibilities in how to use a particularly talented BIG at the 5.

The Warriors caused a shift in NBA coach think similarly with the way they leveraged the talent of Curry and Klay along with Draymond.  Most people missed however the high quality of big men and size the Warriors went out and kept behind and around Draymond so they could hold their own against quality size.

Let's look at the big men, the centers that played key roles on the 4x modern 'small ball' championship rosters.
Their big men men in the middle besides small ball Gree included guys like Andrew Bogut, Festus Ezeli, Marreese Speights, David West, David Lee, Kevon Looney, and yes even Mav's washout-turned-NBA-champions Zaza Pachulia and Javale McGee had huge impact supporting the GSW championship rosters.

That's represents a team that never featured or leveraged their center. Still the quality of centers they pursued and the way they leveraged them so well is outstanding.

If on the other hand you have a talent at center than can be featured more it's been more of a question mark as to his value.  I think Nikola Jokic just forced a rethink of that and a players like Ayton can make the case that their value is all about how they are used, or not used.

[Dahlsim]

Wood might create a path to maximizing what we have left after making trades., but it requires that we not bring back anyone in a S&T or have a trade match greater than 10% above our outgoing.  It also requires a trading partner who can stay under the first apron after such a deal.

Great thread and post Dan!   

The Mavericks entire Luka era and relevance as an NBA contender or not for the foreseeable future hinges very heavily on how they manage the current CAP and talent predicament they have placed themselves in.  

Cuban and company not only can't afford another epic fail like the Brunson Blunder but they really need to score on a solid double or triple if not a home run to make up for the loss in roster value.  Has no one in their office called you to consult yet on the cap moves? 

The CLE trade sounds solid. 

I like Allen way better than Ayton.

 Allen, yeah, good stuff @chaparral. 
Not even sure how practical or feasible Ayton acquisition is but there is a part of me that is intrigued still with Ayton's potential if he were featured with Luka.  

I can see some similar potential in Luka/Ayton to Jokic/Murray dominance which is much more offensive dominance supported by smart hard working defense than it is based on a great defensive big man anchor.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

So, here is what we know about the first apron (about $170mm) for the 23/24 season.  You are Hard Capped if you:

Use the non-TP MLE
Make a trade with > 10% trade spread
S&T an incoming player.

That makes the first apron the presumptive cap for the Mav’s UNLESS they can avoid doing any of those things.  The problem with avoiding all three is it is hard to imagine off-season upgrades that don’t either involve the MLE or a large trade package.

Quite often FG will talk about the MLE….OR…a Wood S&T.  It is hard to imagine the reasonable deal that allows for both.  But, if you didn’t use the MLE (the FA class is crap anyway) and could construct a deal that doesn’t exceed the 10% trade spread, $170mm is no longer your spending limit.  It is now $179.5mm.  The key is the flexibility of setting a Wood salary in an outgoing S&T if you can find a team that isn’t going to be over the first apron after the trade.

Keith Smith at Spotrac has Wood as the 4th most attractive FA at center.  I’ve seen various estimates elsewhere that he might be worth something in the $16mm-$17mm area.  All theoretical since so few teams can spend over the MLE (and many of those don’t need what Wood provides as they are bad because they are really bad at D).  So, a Wood S&T could be mutually beneficial to Wood and Dallas if we can find the right team.

We’ve spent a lot of time trying to design a deal for Allen.  Cleveland’s O is horrendous.  So is it’s TS%.  Wood could single handedly fix that.  He could start next to Mobley and either he or Mobley could play without the other (Mobley probably in closing lineups).  Depending on what it does with LaVert, Cleveland can take on salary in a trade AND use the MLE AND be well under the tax line.  We can mix and match all sorts of other things like Reggie and THJ and McGee and Okoru or Cedi, but at the core of all of this is Wood S&T for Allen and the Dallas 2027 (they aren’t giving up Allen without a big time asset coming back).

One benefit of such an approach would be that this can’t be done prior to 7/1.  So, Dallas can keep its pick.  A front court rotation of Allen/Powell with Maxi/Hendricks at PF is pretty darn strong.  If we have $179.5mm to spend, we don’t have to worry nearly as much about jettisoning salary in a draft day trade.  So, keeping #10 becomes much more likely if the rest of your summer is based around finding a deal for Wood and 2027.

Mobley/Wood would be an amazing frontcourt.  As would Allen/Wood.  This said, I think Allen is a must.  If we can get him with Wood in a S&T, great.  If it takes other assets and we pair Allen/Wood, great.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Great thread and post Dan!   

The Mavericks entire Luka era and relevance as an NBA contender or not for the foreseeable future hinges very heavily on how they manage the current CAP and talent predicament they have placed themselves in.  

Cuban and company not only can't afford another epic fail like the Brunson Blunder but they really need to score on a solid double or triple if not a home run to make up for the loss in roster value.  Has no one in their office called you to consult yet on the cap moves? 

The CLE trade sounds solid. 

 Allen, yeah, good stuff @chaparral. 
Not even sure how practical or feasible Ayton acquisition is but there is a part of me that is intrigued still with Ayton's potential if he were featured with Luka.  

I can see some similar potential in Luka/Ayton to Jokic/Murray dominance which is much more offensive dominance supported by smart hard working defense than it is based on a great defensive big man anchor.

Ayton/Luka is positively nothing like Jokic/Murray.  Luka is tremendously more like Jokic than Ayton is.  A much more comparable pair is Luka/Kyrie.

[Dahlsim]

Ayton/Luka is positively nothing like Jokic/Murray.  Luka is tremendously more like Jokic than Ayton is.  A much more comparable pair is Luka/Kyrie.

I understand from that perspective.  That's a surface player to player comparison. 

I'm referring to building around a star combination at guard/center where the dominance comes from unstoppable offense even when their defense is average at best.   

In that respect I think Luka/Ayton would be very similar to Jokic/Murray in terms of what the Maverick coaching stuff would build their style of play and supporting roster around.  

I do agree that Luka/Kyrie is also an offensive fulcrum to build around.  I think Luka/Ayton as a pair could get to average level defensively on a roster much easier than Luka/Kyrie which always looks like it will be a massive challenge to build defense around. 

In addition there will always be Kyrie's commitment level question marks even when he's full in a contract commitment.  He may just 'retire' at any time leaving your 1/2 punch to just one.  I like the idea of an inside star and outside star a bit more and I think Ayton may still have untapped potential.    Kyrie's potential is great but its pretty much also more fully tapped.  I've read for example that Ayton's 29.2% 3 point shooting shows signs in practice that it could get much better if it were a focus and setup better.  Doubt he would ever reach Jokic level but he could be coached up to be a better defender than Jokic. 

Anyway, I don't know that Ayton is even in play of the Mavs so not to derail the OP.  The proposed CLE trade sounds great and tbqh I think with Kidd as coach Allen sounds much better as a fit to the defensive style Jason seems to be gunning for in Dallas.