Poll: What is the probability that Kyrie will be a Mav next season?
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0% < P < 10%
4.76%
1 4.76%
10% < P < 20%
9.52%
2 9.52%
20% < P < 30%
0%
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30% < P < 40%
0%
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40% < P < 50%
4.76%
1 4.76%
50% < P < 60%
4.76%
1 4.76%
60% < P < 70%
9.52%
2 9.52%
70% < P < 80%
19.05%
4 19.05%
80% < P < 90%
0%
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90% < P < 100%
47.62%
10 47.62%
Total 21 vote(s) 100%
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What is the probability that Kyrie will be a Mav next season?
#21
Max years, max money, Maxi Kleber's parking spot and first child.
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#22
(04-05-2023, 12:39 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: I’m basically at a 100% he’ll re-sign, right where I’ve been since the second the trade went down. He demanded a trade specifically because the Nets didn’t want to give him his long term, guaranteed deal (can’t blame them), NOT because he didn’t want to finish the season there. It was about getting his bird rights to a team willing to pony up. 

We know Dallas will offer the max because of what they gave up to get him. They decided to do that BEFORE making the trade. Kyrie’s attitude about being here is indicative of his understanding that the offer he wants is coming. If Dallas hadn’t decided long ago to make the offer he wants, he’d be on a different team right now.

The only suspenseful detail of the deal is: 3, 4 or 5 years? Knowing Cuban as a negotiator, I’m guessing at least 4 and probably all 5. 

Then, with the ink dry, the clock starts running on how long Kyrie is happy here before he forces his way out. Could be a year, could be two. He could be gone by the very next trade deadline - who knows? 

My favorite part is that Luka will get a front row seat to the “how to make this all about me” master class Kyrie is about to put on.

Feel differently after Cubans comments yesterday?

He talked about the new CBA and hinted there’s probably a number where they have to walk away.

I'd love to have him stay for sure," Cuban said, via ESPN's Tim MacMahon. "I'd love to have him. I want him to stay for sure, and I think we have a good shot. I think he's happy here. He tells me he's happy here, and I get along great with him. I think he's a good guy. All I can tell you is everything I thought I knew about Kyrie because of everything I read was 100% wrong."
Dallas can offer Irving as much as $272 million over five years, more than any other team due to possessing his Bird rights.
Cuban was not willing to confirm whether or not the Mavericks would be able to secure Irving's services in free agency, and whether or not they would be outbid by another team.
"I don't know," Cuban stated. "I guess there's always too high a price, depending, but now with the new CBA, it's a different world."
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#23
(04-05-2023, 04:52 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: You’re definitely not a moron, and there’s a chance you are right on the money.

However, fans in Cleveland, Boston and Brooklyn were all singing the same tune in this same key early on, too. The smart money says he is angling to get his last contract, not suddenly a completely different person.

I get what your saying and you may be right.  As I said, I don’t know the specifics of why he left other teams.  I’m also not suggesting that things are not going to end poorly here as well. 

Like you, I also don’t believe he has suddenly become a different person.  I personally can’t see Kyrie changing who he is for anyone.  I am actually suggesting that the person Kyrie is has remained consistent but has been misinterpreted and misunderstood.  As I said, I believe Kyrie is an extremely prideful person and has a lower than normal tolerance when he feels disrespected.  I also believe that while money is likely a motivator, the greater motivator for him is happiness and respect.  I would be willing to bet that at the root of every fallout lies a feeling of disrespect.  Mix in a heavy dose of extreme pride, a dash of low tolerance, a pinch of a lack of a personal filter, a dab of a method to communicate to the masses, and a splash of non-contextual social media forums and you have a train wreck when things go sideways.  In my experience, working with a person like Kyrie is not that difficult as long as you know who you are dealing with and are willing to invest the time to better understand the drivers.  

Kyrie is not a unique outlier…just look out the window.  He just chose employment in an industry followed by people who take a personal, often unhealthy, and occasionally borderline psychotic interest in his profession.  I don’t think Kyrie is a bad person, I just think he is misunderstood.  Unfortunately, in a world predicated on short cuts, we choose simplified labels to define a person instead of trying to better understand that person.  At the end of the day, it is just more expeditious to label him as a selfish, money hungry nut job motivated by self interest, it can be comforting and therapeutic in a twisted sort of way.  Externally we get twisted in knots but deep down people thrive on this shit…it connects and unites.  To quote the lyric’s from the TOOL song Vicarious, “I need to watch things die…from a distance”.

Again, just my opinion.
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#24
(04-06-2023, 02:54 PM)RoyTarpleysGhost Wrote: Feel differently after Cubans comments yesterday?

He talked about the new CBA and hinted there’s probably a number where they have to walk away.


"I don't know," Cuban stated. "I guess there's always too high a price, depending, but now with the new CBA, it's a different world."


So, we now have Cuban's first read of the impact of the new CBA.  He's basically saying teams need to make sure they avoid the "super-tax" (or second apron) which is $17.5mm over the tax line.  It isn't the financial penalty so much.  Those haven't changed and in fact have eased just a bit.  It is the competitive penalties for teams that cross the line:

1.  No TP MLE use
2.  Can't participate in the buyout market
3.  Can't trade picks 7 years out
4.  Can't take back excess money in trades (no 125% rule).

There is reporting, but no details yet on some of these.  The Kyrie trade would have violated two of these and would have been illegal if it were made under the new CBA.  We took on 8 million in excess salary which put us over the second apron for 22/23.  Since it happened in a year we used the TP-MLE, it would not have worked (violation 1).  Since it put us $17.5mm over the tax with the incoming excess salary, it would not have worked (violation 2).

So, if you are trying to figure out the summer plan, plug in ~$190mm as a hard cap for Cuban.  Oh, and not just this year, but going forward as Green and Hardy are eligible for extensions.  Plug in also his belief that other teams will feel the same way creating opportunities that may or may not materialize (Draymond Green).
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#25
Thank you Dan

Is $190 million the penalty trigger for next season? Is it increasing every season?

That still seems like a really large number that they could sign Kyrie and make other moves, no?
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#26
Love the optimism on this site.
Combination of the worst FO and the biggest fruitcake in the game, and yet most people think the boy will sign. That is some proper masochism.
I mean I kinda agree with people that he will sign based on a fact that no other team will offer more, but he will be gone by the next trade deadline for peanuts. So what difference does it make. Not even mediocre players dont wanna sign here, never mind Kyrie.
Either way, Mavs are on road to sucking for the foreseeable future. If this was career mode on 2k I would be trading both Luka and Kyrie this offseason and starting fresh, because with this roster and remaining assets you are not getting anywhere near the top tier in the next 3, 4 years. Time and assets were wasted in the last 4 years. Kyrie trade was just the final nail.
If they sing him they are fudged.
If he leaves for nothing they are proper fudged.
No way out boys.
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#27
(04-06-2023, 05:36 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: So, if you are trying to figure out the summer plan, plug in ~$190mm as a hard cap for Cuban.  Oh, and not just this year, but going forward as Green and Hardy are eligible for extensions. 

Thanks for your views.

I don't understand why you landed on 190M in your projection. That's well over the 2nd apron (which you seem to think Cuban will stay below) and not sure what it represents (if anything). (Was it perhaps meant to be written as ~180M, ie the 2nd apron?)

I'm not optimistic that Cuban has the new CBA "figured out" or that he will be ahead of the class. From past experience, I think he will LOOK FOR some edge, but his grasp on the league's working economics tends to misread how OTHERS will think and respond (both players and teams).

AS AN ASIDE - I think the league is gradually FORCING teams to use the draft and player development to create a pipeline of less expensive, bargain priced talent that can play. If you can't do that well, and (like Cuban) have it as an afterthought, you will be very handicapped. There's just not enough money to go around and fill all the needs. The sooner that Cuban gets it, and pivots his organization to prioritize elite talent evaluation, elite drafting, elite development, and elite negotiation, the sooner they will become what is needed. Until then, they'll be continuing to waste Luka's career.
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#28
I'm struggling to think of what Cubes does well in the first place that would lead him to believe he can find an edge in the new CBA.
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#29
(04-06-2023, 08:19 PM)F Gump Wrote: The sooner that Cuban gets it


So the Mavs are doomed is what you're telling me? 

I have no faith in Cuban and his ability to adapt. He is a buffoon of epic proportions. I would love nothing more than for him to be gone. He does some things great, and I do credit him for helping the Mavs turn the franchise around (although they basically already had all the building blocks there when he bought the team). 

Today? He's done nothing but help the Mavs tread mediocrity and his gigantic ego has been the biggest roadblock for the last 12 years. I am just waiting for the day for fans to hold up signs en masse during a Mavs game all saying "Mark Sell the Team"

His ego needs to be destroyed.
14x All-Star, 12x all-NBA, 1x MVP, 1x Finals MVP, 1 NBA Championship: Dirk Nowitzki, the man, the myth, the legend.
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#30
(04-06-2023, 10:56 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: His ego needs to be destroyed.

It's coming.  While I think Luka is loyal and patient, he isn't going to be a saintly as Dirk and allow Cuban to waste years of his prime hoping for a contender to be built around him.  And honestly, the sooner that happens the better.  I think Luka is going to be difficult to build around in the first place, especially for an inept organization like the Mavs.  

It will never happen in a million years, but I've thought about the possibilities of moving Luka if it would allow you to draft Wemby.  Would someone with the #1 pick consider it?  No idea.  Wemby could be a generational talent but his height and build are some major red flags.  The Mavs need to bottom out and do a complete rebuild and I'm not sure Luka is going to be okay with that.  Resigning Kyrie isn't going to allow this team to look a whole lot different last year and I'd describe the team as dreadful in its' current state.
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#31
Can you imagine if the Mavs don’t sign Kyrie how much they’ve traded away for nothing, after gifting a similar player to the Knicks for free and giving up assets for Wood with still no real path to acquire anyone else?  It would be the most hilariously inept management of a franchise in professional sports history. 

The Mavs pretty much have to sign Kyrie and figure the rest out.  The only viable alternative would be to trade Luka, bottom out, and start again — unless the Mavs keep their pick this year.
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#32
(04-06-2023, 08:19 PM)F Gump Wrote: Thanks for your views.

I don't understand why you landed on 190M in your projection. That's well over the 2nd apron (which you seem to think Cuban will stay below) and not sure what it represents (if anything). (Was it perhaps meant to be written as ~180M, ie the 2nd apron?)

Yes...math error.  Should have been $162mm (though that could go up a little) plus $17.5mm = ~$180mm.  If we max out Kyrie and use the TP-MLE and do nothing but bring back the players who are under contract and sign minimums, we are at $170mm already.  That doesn't leave much room for a 125% trade match (like Bertans for Turner) or for the retention of either Powell or Wood if that is something they want to do.  And what if they somehow keep a top 10 pick?

I'm not sure why Kyrie has to be paid $47mm when Luka is making $40mm.  Is Harden a precedent for something more like $38mm-$40mm?  If you S/W Bertans (you really need to if he isn't being traded with a pick for an upgrade) and get Kyrie to take $40mm, it would save $20mm off of that $170mm number.  Now you have some room to maneuver.  If you trade Bertans for a more expensive player, but get Kyrie for $40mm, you may have room for Wood and the TP-MLE if you don't get a top 10 pick.  They aren't totally screwed, but they are limited.

I agree with your comment about drafting well.  We continue to hand out picks like a Pez dispenser.  I will point out though that our last three non-Luka picks have been Brunson, Green and Hardy.  All three look like to be really good value for the slots they were taken.  What happens afterwards is obviously a different and painful story right now.
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#33
Dan, I am afraid you missed Bey the lesser and Tyrell the Forgotten in your last Non-Luka picks.

Still 60% but not enough to overcome 20 years of non-top5 misses
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#34
I have no doubts Kyrie will be back. 90% plus chance. He'll get max money here and I don't think they shut down these last 2 games without having an idea about him resigning. He'll be back. The question is how do they build around him and Luka.
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#35
Pretty high. I don't see another team with cap space who would throw the kind of money at him we will
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#36
So Cuban has an opinion about the new CBA when his 'nuclear winter' prognostication on the last one was so on point?  Another thing, do we really want to sign a 31 y.o. Kyrie to a max 5 year contract?  If he's fighting nagging injuries now, what does he look like in the last half of that contract?  At least Westbrook on that monster deal was still able to play on a regular basis, all his other warts aside.
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#37
(04-08-2023, 01:37 AM)MrGoat Wrote: Pretty high. I don't see another team with cap space who would throw the kind of money at him we will

I think Kyrie is using money as a facade. Look at all the money he gave up sitting out games because he wouldn't get vaccinated.  Sure, he says he wants a max extension and has been the model citizen his short time here, but do we know what's going through his cranium at any given moment?  At this point, I'd say his chances of walking are 50/50. Your reputation precedes you.
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#38
(04-08-2023, 10:14 AM)HoosierDaddyKid Wrote: I think Kyrie is using money as a facade. Look at all the money he gave up sitting out games because he wouldn't get vaccinated.

Or he used it as a decoy to sit out a lot of games to massage his broken down body toward his last big contract. When the Nets called his bluff and the Lakers only wanted two years, the NBA retirement home called and Uncle Drew threw a party.
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