What is the probability that Kyrie will be a Mav next season?

[Hogmelon]

https://thespun.com/more/top-stories/kyr...ext-season  

https://twitter.com/Foxmayne/status/1643323533441810434  

https://twitter.com/CarringtonGupte/stat...3703404544  

https://twitter.com/TheNBACentral/status...33890?s=20

If this rumor is to be believed, it definitely tells me the Mavs have assured Kyrie he's getting his full max. The fact other teams can't match that means Kyrie is telling them don't bother, I'm getting what I want here.

What is the probability that Kyrie Irving will be on the Dallas Mavericks' roster at the beginning of next season (2023-24)?

[ballsrchr]

I don't think Kyrie will be a Dallas Mavericks next season.  He didn't find what he expected on the Mavs...which is to be a big dog on a powerful team entering the dynasty years while he effortlessly slices, dices, and does the general manager role.

I like Kyrie as a player, and I have seen him coaching other players while they played.  Sometimes he speaks well and coherently...most of the time bluntly forthright.  Other times he speaks in a language that I don't understand.  I don' t know how smart he is, but I sometimes think he is out of his depth in life simply because he has superior talent playing basketball.  More power to him.  He has opportunities that few of us will see--I wish him well.

There's always a chance for anything so I had to check mark the 10% to 20%.  I, at least, hope there will be a sign and trade with Kyrie.

[omahen]

I put it at max possibility. If Mavs managed to screw this one up and Irving doesn't resign, there is no redemption for this team.

I think he stays, because Mavs will give him whatever he wants. He will likely be a bad contract going forward, but Mavs really don't have a feasible alternative if the goal is to compete in a short term.

[Mavs2021]

They are the only team that will grossly overpay him, so the probability that he stays is >90%.

The more interesting poll would be what, when and which will be the consequences of his meltdown.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

If he's just playing for money, I mean what's the point?  He's been on two contending teams in Boston and Brooklyn after winning a chip in Cleveland with much better players and still wasn't happy. If he re-signs here, I guess he's content with not winning anytime soon, as this team is hog-tied from making significant moves on the fly like the Lakers just did. I'm not sure other teams think their players have the value they think they do. Again, JMO.

[Mavs2021]

If he's just playing for money, I mean what's the point?  He's been on two contending teams in Boston and Brooklyn after winning a chip in Cleveland with much better players and still wasn't happy. If he re-signs here, I guess he's content with not winning anytime soon, as this team is hog-tied from making significant moves on the fly like the Lakers just did. I'm not sure other teams think their players have the value they think they do. Again, JMO.

The point is to get the most money available first, then go home, cause your body is hurting and yo do not care.

Who has traded for suicidial drug addicts, given five year max extensions without any injury clauses to a 7´4 spare parts and has a larger retirement community than Jacksonville? The Dallas Mavericks.

Irving is at the perfect team to make all his dreams come true. And the best part is he´ll literally be untradeable, once the Mavs give him that max extension.

There is absolutely nothing re-deemable about 200/4 on a 31 year old body with plantar fascitis and flat earth syndrome. We couldn´t even trade him away, cause we don´t have neough 1st round picks to do it.

Oh sorry the best part is we give him twice the money to be half the player that Jalen Brunson is.

Cuban has always been Vivek/Dolan with better PR and a top 20 player of all-time. That´s probably about to change. At least we have that.

[SleepingHero]

I think Kyrie is an enigma and will probably decide July 1st where he wants to go. If Dallas throws a max at him I'll give it 75% (a number I am pulling out of my butt) chance that he stays. 

If anything the Mavs can't let Kyrie walk for free. Doing so would literally destroy the rest of the Luka-era and would cement Cuban as the worst owner in the entire league (if he isn't already there).

[Mavs2021]

I think Kyrie is an enigma and will probably decide July 1st where he wants to go. If Dallas throws a max at him I'll give it 75% (a number I am pulling out of my butt) chance that he stays. 

If anything the Mavs can't let Kyrie walk for free. Doing so would literally destroy the rest of the Luka-era and would cement Cuban as the worst owner in the entire league (if he isn't already there).

I geniunely have no idea whether I would prefer Irving to leave for nothing or give him the 200/4 extension. I think either outcome is bad for the Mavs. I just have no idea which one is worse.

I would jump on almost any S&T scenario.

CP3 + Ayton for Irving.

Lowry + Robinson + Heat 20th pick this year + plus the Heat 2027 1st protected for Irving.

Russell + Bamba for Irving.

Vucevic + White + Ball + Bulls 2027 1st for Irving + Bertans + THJ.

Gafford + Morris + Wright + Wizards 2023 pick for Irving.


Not trying to work out the cap legalities. Just roughly looking at teams that I think might be interested in Kyrie.

I´d prefer any of these as addition by subtraction scenarios over the stupid contract Cuban will offer or him walking for nothing.

[SkenfromLMF]

I don't think the interesting question is necessarily where he is when the season starts... I'd say 60-70% with the Mavs, pending a team creating the space needed - looking at you NY KNICKS.

The more intriguing process will ultimately be "where is he when 23-24 ends?" I'd cut those odds in half with Dallas (~30%) and then figure out who might want Kyrie enough to work out a trade.

[KillerLeft]

I’m basically at a 100% he’ll re-sign, right where I’ve been since the second the trade went down. He demanded a trade specifically because the Nets didn’t want to give him his long term, guaranteed deal (can’t blame them), NOT because he didn’t want to finish the season there. It was about getting his bird rights to a team willing to pony up. 

We know Dallas will offer the max because of what they gave up to get him. They decided to do that BEFORE making the trade. Kyrie’s attitude about being here is indicative of his understanding that the offer he wants is coming. If Dallas hadn’t decided long ago to make the offer he wants, he’d be on a different team right now.

The only suspenseful detail of the deal is: 3, 4 or 5 years? Knowing Cuban as a negotiator, I’m guessing at least 4 and probably all 5. 

Then, with the ink dry, the clock starts running on how long Kyrie is happy here before he forces his way out. Could be a year, could be two. He could be gone by the very next trade deadline - who knows? 

My favorite part is that Luka will get a front row seat to the “how to make this all about me” master class Kyrie is about to put on.

[Mavs2021]

I’m basically at a 100% he’ll re-sign, right where I’ve been since the second the trade went down. He demanded a trade specifically because the Nets didn’t want to give him his long term, guaranteed deal (can’t blame them), NOT because he didn’t want to finish the season there. It was about getting his bird rights to a team willing to pony up. 

We know Dallas will offer the max because of what they gave up to get him. They decided to do that BEFORE making the trade. Kyrie’s attitude about being here is indicative of his understanding that the offer he wants is coming. If Dallas hadn’t decided long ago to make the offer he wants, he’d be on a different team right now.

The only suspenseful detail of the deal is: 3, 4 or 5 years? Knowing Cuban as a negotiator, I’m guessing at least 4 and probably all 5. 

Then, with the ink dry, the clock starts running on how long Kyrie is happy here before he forces his way out. Could be a year, could be two. He could be gone by the very next trade deadline - who knows? 

My favorite part is that Luka will get a front row seat to the “how to make this all about me” master class Kyrie is about to put on.

100% accurate, except there will be no trade. Once Kyrie signs anything that says 3+ years maximum, he´s retiring in Dallas. We literally do not have enough assets to get rid of that contract.

[Jym]

Probably pretty good but do we actually want that? 
Reminds me too much of the KP situation where we were roped into a max deal when we all knew it was a questionable idea. I'm still shocked that deal was fully guaranteed. Even Embiid's deal at around that same time was only about 50% guaranteed

[RDB]

I’ll preface this by saying I know few specifics about Kyrie’s history regarding trade requests and overall happiness, so my opinion may be way off base.  However, the Kyrie I have seen since he has been here is very different than the one I was expecting after reading this board.  I have seen a person who is consistently supportive of his teammates, seems to have willingly accepted his role alongside a ball dominate teammate, and has been a model player so far.  I love everything about his respectful, positive on court demeanor, whether it is with his teammates, opposing players, and even refs.  I LOVE Luka but I feel like I need to pop an antidepressant after watching him play.

I’m no psychologist but based on what I have seen during his time in Dallas and what I do know of his history, I see Kyrie as selfless, not selfish.  However, I do see Kyrie as a VERY prideful person who demands respect…a trait that he is uncompromising about.  I could even see Kyrie trying to get a fan thrown out of a game for being overly disrespectful.  Is that a personality flaw?  Maybe…but I think there are many pro athletes who share this flaw, though I think it is probably more pronounced with him than most.

I think Kyrie is just one who needs to be managed a little differently.  We have all likely dealt with his type and IMO, it’s not about walking on egg shells or allowing them to get their way every time.  It’s about being mindful of how you are navigating potentially challenging situations, both in the lead up to and the resolution.  Is it a pain in the ass?  Sure, but if you want the good, you have to work with the bad.  You know who he is and what he demands.  I don’t think Kyrie would respond well to getting sent to the asthma field (any Cowboys fans).  My hot sports opinion is that anyone who signs up for the challenge only has themselves to blame if they are not able to manage his personality type properly.  Ultimately, if signs and stays here long term, I believe it will be a direct result of how we have managed the relationship, not some dollar figure or other selfish motivation.

Then again, I could just be a moron.

[KillerLeft]

I’ll preface this by saying I know few specifics about Kyrie’s history regarding trade requests and overall happiness, so my opinion may be way off base.  However, the Kyrie I have seen since he has been here is very different than the one I was expecting after reading this board.  I have seen a person who is consistently supportive of his teammates, seems to have willingly accepted his role alongside a ball dominate teammate, and has been a model player so far.  I love everything about his respectful, positive on court demeanor, whether it is with his teammates, opposing players, and even refs.  I LOVE Luka but I feel like I need to pop an antidepressant after watching him play.

I’m no psychologist but based on what I have seen during his time in Dallas and what I do know of his history, I see Kyrie as selfless, not selfish.  However, I do see Kyrie as a VERY prideful person who demands respect…a trait that he is uncompromising about.  I could even see Kyrie trying to get a fan thrown out of a game for being overly disrespectful.  Is that a personality flaw?  Maybe…but I think there are many pro athletes who share this flaw, though I think it is probably more pronounced with him than most.

I think Kyrie is just one who needs to be managed a little differently.  We have all likely dealt with his type and IMO, it’s not about walking on egg shells or allowing them to get their way every time.  It’s about being mindful of how you are navigating potentially challenging situations, both in the lead up to and the resolution.  Is it a pain in the ass?  Sure, but if you want the good, you have to work with the bad.  You know who he is and what he demands.  I don’t think Kyrie would respond well to getting sent to the asthma field (any Cowboys fans).  My hot sports opinion is that anyone who signs up for the challenge only has themselves to blame if they are not able to manage his personality type properly.  Ultimately, if signs and stays here long term, I believe it will be a direct result of how we have managed the relationship, not some dollar figure or other selfish motivation.

Then again, I could just be a moron.

You’re definitely not a moron, and there’s a chance you are right on the money.

However, fans in Cleveland, Boston and Brooklyn were all singing the same tune in this same key early on, too. The smart money says he is angling to get his last contract, not suddenly a completely different person.

[cow]

I don't see any chance that he isn't a Mav.  I don't think they could recoup what they spent in a sign-and-trade.  They are already married to him so to speak.

[LukaMVP]

kyrie will stay mostly for money's sake. sign and trade him to a contender would be the best both for him and the team, but i doubt his potential buyers would offer us the package matching our expectation. so i guess kyrie will remain a mav next season.

[DallasMaverick]

It's one thing to have Russell Westbrook or John Wall or Chandler Parsons on a max deal.  Guys that significantly underplay their massive contracts.  I'd maybe even throw Porzingis in that pot.

But paying Kyrie a max contract is only a bad deal if he gets injured, or his performance falls off a cliff.  He's just a really good player, absolutely worth the money.

[dirkfansince1998]

It's one thing to have Russell Westbrook or John Wall or Chandler Parsons on a max deal.  Guys that significantly underplay their massive contracts.  I'd maybe even throw Porzingis in that pot.

But paying Kyrie a max contract is only a bad deal if he gets injured, or his performance falls off a cliff.  He's just a really good player, absolutely worth the money.

That´s the lesson they should have learned after the KP disaster. Two year max is a controlled risk. If it doesn´t work out they can stilll recover. Four year max is a giant gamble. Hoping that a 31 year old guard with various injury issues isn´t going to decline. Hoping that he won´t create more off court drama.

[Chicagojk]

This team has proven they cannot negotiate trades/contracts.  Everyone can smell the desperation.  I would assume three years but will probably be four with a player option at the 4th year.  If they can mimic, I would assume Bradley Beal is the benchmark of the type of deal we will see.  If that is possible.

Regardless, Kyrie will get almost everything he wants and the Mavs will get very little if any discounts.

[SwisherPrice]

Very high chance now that Cuban has backed Kidd. They know Kidd's "system" (or lack of) requires Kyrie's shot-making/shot-creating skills...as we've seen the last 2 games. Cuban will cave to whatever Kyrie wants, even build him a statue next to Dirk if needed