Luka Doncic And the Prevailing Power of the Pass

[SleepingHero]

Before I begin on this rant, let me preface this and say I am as big of a Luka fan boy as there is. He is a golden child in my eyes, and he can rarely do anything wrong. He is a maestro. A savant. Probably the best young basketball prospect of the last 20 years.

Ok? We good? 

I want to turn our attention to the last PHX game. Specifically the final 3:31 of the third quarter. At this juncture, the Mavs were up by 8 (81-89), and Kyrie had just been subbed out by Holiday. With 3 minutes left, one would stand to reason the Mavs could close out the quarter at least up by 2 possessions. However, by the end of the third the final tally was 96-95. What went wrong as to the Mavs giving up 15 points in 3 minutes and only being able to score 6 themselves?

Chapter 1: Defensive Consistency

We're beating this drum to death again. I had to sneak in some defense even though I wanted to write about the offense. It has plagued the Mavs this entire season. This team just seems unable to get 2 or more defensive stops in a row. What's truly maddening is that the Mavs came in with a game plan and it was basically get anyone but KD or Booker to shoot it, and if it was a corner 3 they'd live with it. The Suns had 9 offensive possessions in the final 3:31. Here's how they shook out, 3 made corner threes, two 2 point shots, and a trip to the free throw line. 

What stood out to me was that 2 of these possessions were clearly preventable, either by not being able to box out (in this case Wood was the culprit), or miscommunication on defense with relaxed closeouts and rotations.

https://streamable.com/2t0dy4

First preventable possession: Holiday gets hung up by Landale and Wood and is late to closing out on Durant. He subsequently gets beaten off the dribble. Luka isn't really a rim protector, but he's late rotating over anyways. Wood tries but is also late. Easy Durant dunk. What could've prevented this? Holiday and Luka being earlier to their spots. Wood maybe sinking a bit deeper since Landale is not a 3 point threat. It's the small things that add up.

https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&GameEventID=424&GameID=0022200962&Season=2022-23&flag=1&title=Landale%20REBOUND%20(Off%3A2%20Def%3A0)

Second preventable possession: Wood falls asleep here. Landale gets an uncontested rebound off of a relatively wide open corner 3 for Ross (foreshadowing). A quick kick out to Durant and it's a foul and 2 free shots at the FT line. What could've prevented this? I mean it's obvious. Doing the little things. A rebound here actually closes out the possession. I hope I don't lose the Wood faithful here. I'm not trying to dog on the guy since this IS supposed to be about Luka. But I have to point out the mistakes as I see them.

Chapter 2: The Corner 3 Massacre

It's here where I start to question the coach and his game plan. The two possessions above still kept the lead at a relatively comfortable distance 85-91. But after this point, the Suns hit 3 straight corner threes to put them ahead. Now on the face of it, if you tell me that you made PHX beat you by not having Durant and Booker shoot it, I'd say you're doing probably playing the smartest option. But it's how PHX got these threes where I'm frustrated, because the players are basically resigned at letting them shoot it versus just going a little bit harder and preventing the shot. 

Here are the 3 threes:

https://streamable.com/um2ihn

First one, Holiday gets caught up quite comically on Landale. It leads to a free shot by Craig after the late contest. If Holiday was a bit more aware he shouldn't have been caught up by the back screen like that and he could've been there just a bit earlier.

https://streamable.com/lqh38y

Here Luka is just sunk too far into the paint, which leads to a lazy contest for an open Wainwright. Now this isn't that bad because Luka actually tries to close out here versus the effort he was giving earlier in the season. Still, if he was just in slightly better position and earlier, that could've made the difference.

https://streamable.com/igehlu

No I didn't upload the same clip twice. Literally the same exact play and the same exact mistakes by Luka. And it happened on back to back possessions. How Kidd doesn't make an in game adjustment here is baffling. 

At this point the score is 94-93 and a career 35% 3pt shooter has hit 2 in a row. All momentum is PHX's and they close out the quarter. But why did the Mavs offense suddenly die here? Before these uninspiring last 3 minutes, they had scored 27 points in 8 minutes. A good amount for any team. And here is the main point of my post.

Chapter 3: A Star or a Black Hole?

When Kyrie checked out, the players on the court were Luka-THJ-Holiday-Frank-Wood. THJ has had an incredible night thus far, hitting 5-6 of threes for 18 quick points. Wood also hasn't been bad at all with 6 points on 100% shooting. But it is here where the offense dies in the last 3 minutes. We get a hefty serving of Luka Ball. I actually rewatched all of the Mavs possessions to see if anyone else touched the ball, and in fact literally no one else did. Luka took all 7 possessions for the Mavs and no one else received a single pass. 

The results? 6 points on 1-3 FG, 4-4 from FT, 2 turnovers, 2 missed threes. 

Now 6 points in 3 minutes isn't that bad, but one has to wonder why would literally no one else touch the ball? Especially if they're shooting well. Luka tries to one man army this when he doesn't have to. No plays are ran besides a pet favorite of Luka's- Spain PnR. Is Kidd fine with this? If you're THJ or Wood, are you fine with this?

Again, do not get me wrong. Luka is fully capable of beating teams on his own, but such a strategy is rarely the best conventional option. That game definitely did not qualify for Luka to try and take it over given his hurting thigh and poor shooting thus far. 

And this is quite jarring for me, because Luka has ALWAYS been a fantastic distributor. Stealing my title from J.Kyle Mann's old article before Luka entered the league (https://www.dimedrop.net/playerdeepdives...-deep-dive), Luka's brilliance has always been his ability to dictate defenses not only with his shot, but his pass.

I do not care if Luka shoots twenty shots, but they need to come within the offense, and this team's ceiling will be locked if Luka can't recognize when to get others involved vs. taking the do it all yourself approach.

Right now the on/off numbers (on super low sample sizes) are painting that teams are starting to figure out Luka's offense and it isn't working. I hate using net rating without context, but after watching that PHX game and seeing how Luka is trying to operate without Kyrie, and seeing these numbers, I'm getting a bit worried. 

Kyrie on Luka off +14.44 net rating (80min)

Luka on Kyrie off -22.99 net rating (70min)

Both of them on +6.65 net rating (186min)


In any case, I fully believe this team can work it out, because I believe in Luka. I'm interested to see if anyone else noticed this and what their thoughts are.  Looking forward to the game against UTA tomorrow!

[Chicagojk]

Nice post.  It appears the mavs have solved the non Luka minutes with Kyrie.  It was a strong point with Jalen last year but a disaster with Din.  So far it looks like Kyrie has solved this.  The end of quarter Luka minutes are a concern.  If I was another team, I would be targeting those minutes when Luka is tired and late in the quarter.  By being aggressive, driving and pushing the pace you can really make headway in Dallas late in these stretches.  

My hope is next year Jaden is ready and develops some chemistry with Luka.  Right now he doesn’t have any.  If Luka let’s him cook, it may be a good time to give Luka some rest.  

You can see a vast difference with the Luka only minutes vs the Kyrie only minutes.  Not saying one is better than the other but when it is a tired ball dependent Luka, the results have much less variance imo.

I have other comments but I am on my phone and probably have enough grammar mistakes as is.

[vfromlmf]

First of all, great analysis. Draws me back in. 

Those defensive possessions are tough to watch but it looks like they were baiting the corner threes. You'd expect Wainwright to make one or two, not four. The Durant and Lindale dunks were 100% on Wood.

The offensive possessions were eye opening. I didn't realize Luka dominated the ball to that extent, but it certainly feels different when Kyrie runs the show. The on/off metrics match the eye test. Something to watch.

[SleepingHero]

My hope is next year Jaden is ready and develops some chemistry with Luka.  Right now he doesn’t have any.  If Luka let’s him cook, it may be a good time to give Luka some rest.  

You can see a vast difference with the Luka only minutes vs the Kyrie only minutes.  Not saying one is better than the other but when it is a tired ball dependent Luka, the results have much less variance imo.

First off thanks for the thoughts.

I'm not so sure if just adding more creators will fix this issue with the non-Kyrie minutes. He had 2 hot scorers with him on the court against PHX and it didn't matter. I think it has to come from Luka with a mindset change. Thing is, it's hard to argue against a guy averaging 34 points a game on 50% shooting. Luka's offense IS efficient. It does work. But it does have some major downsides, and we saw that in this PHX game. This is sort of dealing with the game within the game that many great point guards like to allude to. I think Luka already knows how to play that game, and right now it's up to Kidd to get him to recognize these moments. 

First of all, great analysis. Draws me back in. 

Those defensive possessions are tough to watch but it looks like they were baiting the corner threes. You'd expect Wainwright to make one or two, not four. The Durant and Lindale dunks were 100% on Wood.

The offensive possessions were eye opening. I didn't realize Luka dominated the ball to that extent, but it certainly feels different when Kyrie runs the show. The on/off metrics match the eye test. Something to watch.

I'm with you that it was 100% the game plan to give up those corner threes. Mavs tried their everything to make everyone but Durant and Booker beat them and lost. But it does stand to reason that those open corner threes didn't have to be that wide open. If they hustled just a bit more, those shots would've been a bit harder to knock down. Luka sank too far in on those Wainwright threes, but do I blame him for letting him shoot those? No! Not at all. Even Luka looked at the bench a bit confused that Wainwright sunk 2 in a row given the scouting report probably said "This dude sucks let him shoot"

The offensive possessions was my main gripe with this post, even though I dedicated 2 "chapters" to defense. I found it shocking how Luka didn't pass once in 3 minutes. It was totally out of character and something that has to be righted if this team wants to succeed. And I know Luka will do it, hence the title I grabbed from J. Kyle Mann

[F Gump]

Is it possible that, when Kyrie sits, Luka feels it's time to get his, and plays accordingly?

[SleepingHero]

Is it possible that, when Kyrie sits, Luka feels it's time to get his, and plays accordingly?

Absolutely possible.

Is it the most conducive playstyle to win is the question?

Can Luka not find pockets to get his while simultaneously generating looks for others? It's an absurd question because Luka has been able to do that his entire career I know, however, this year he's been doing it less and less. This PHX game is the first time I've noticed him literally not allowing anyone else to touch the ball for 3 and half minutes. Is that not egregious?

[LifeAquatic]

Thanks SH for the post. I remember posting in the game thread that the slow down ISO ball they were playing at the end of the 3rd hurt them on both ends as not only does the offense go stagnant, but its clear the whole team scrambles more on defense when they are more involved on the offensive end too. 

I didn't realize that he literally never passed the ball during that time. It felt like that was the case, but I didn't think it actually would be, so that was eye opening. 

I too believe Luka to have unbelievable offensive talents, but aside from LeBron, I can't think of a team that relies on a heliocentric offense winning many championships. Jordan was a dominant scorer and shooting guard (and the GOAT), but his teams had point guards and others were involved and had roles to play when they started winning rings.

And even with LeBron and his otherworldly athleticism, defensive ability, and BB IQ, it took a lot of adjusting, and acquiescing to LeBron, for teams to accommodate that style, and even when they did, they sometimes lost championships to teams with lesser overall talent but with better team ball play (Dallas, San Antonio).

I just don't think alot of players want to play on a team with that type of offense (see Brunson), where they have to stand and watch, and I don't think its conducive to championship level play overall.

[nirvana]

Harden ball (now Luka ball) is a terrible brand of basketball.  Sure Luka has nice stats, but I agree it's not championship basketball.  It's hard to watch someone pound the rock for 20 seconds before a play is made.  Luka is a great player, but Mavs need to get him in check.

[loki]

This type of thing should be easy to correct. I guess the coaching staff doesn't care to do it.

[DallasMaverick]

This type of thing should be easy to correct. I guess the coaching staff doesn't care to do it.

Yeah.  And Russell Westbrook's poor decision-making should have been easy to correct, too.

Except that multiple teammates and multiple respected coaches couldn't.

Sometimes we can't accurately pinpoint where the problem lies.  And sometimes we can.

[SleepingHero]

Harden ball (now Luka ball) is a terrible brand of basketball.  Sure Luka has nice stats, but I agree it's not championship basketball.  It's hard to watch someone pound the rock for 20 seconds before a play is made.  Luka is a great player, but Mavs need to get him in check.

I think you and I differ here. 

Harden ball, for as much as we all loathed watching it, was one of the most effective offenses of all time. They took the greatest team of all time to 7 games and were 1 average shooting night away from advancing to the finals. In fact the Harden Rockets were the only team that came anywhere close to beating the healthy GSW with KD.

But Luka ball isn't Harden ball. Luka doesn't rely nearly as much on getting to the FT line as Harden did (harden was fouled more per min than prime Shaq to put it into perspective). Luka is also more efficient from the field to make up for his lack of FT shooting. 

Despite this, Luka ball is also one of the most efficient offensive creators the league has seen. He is scoring an absurd 34 ppg on 50% shooting. That is good offense by any measure. My main point of this post though, was to show that a key facet of Luka's offense (his pass), seems to be withering away in favor of isos. Whether this be a one off thing, or a Kidd not being able to create on offense, I don't know. But this team can only go so far if Luka can't recognize the game within the game and get others involved. 

He's never really had an issue doing this before, and it was quite obvious he was hampered against the Suns. I trust Luka will make the adjustments. Hopefully Kidd sees and recognizes this as well.

[omahen]

He's never really had an issue doing this before, and it was quite obvious he was hampered against the Suns.

Luka never lead a ball moving offense, if we call it this way. It is always a static type of offense with him (or another ball handler) attacking the defense, usually a mismatch, and if the defense helps he passes or he finishes himself. Suns were not doubling him and Mavs were seeking a mismatch against Payne. Luka made one field goal and went to the line twice in this stretch. Once was a rather unfortunate offensive foul when it seemed the defense was already beaten. I would say that only the very last shot was forced. They were waiting the clock and then run nothing, that should be better. The other turnover was an attempted pass. 

As for the defense - as you said. Mavs were actively leaving open Phoenix non star wings, even CP3. Okogie, Wainright and Craig were a combined 5-17 from three, that is 29 %.  Right with the quality of these guys shooting. It was just a coincidence Wainright hit those threes in that stretch. 

It is interesting to note though, that Luka lead offense really took a shot after the injury. But I think it is mainly because his efficiency dropped and number of TO increased. Defensively he is way more static than he was in the first half of the season. I can't say why. It might be that some minor injuries are bothering him (a thigh injury was mentioned). My theory would be, that he simply burned out due to high load he had to carry in the first part. I think he is recharging the batteries for playoffs. Of course Mavs need to get there first.

Stats are really weird. Mavs pace is actually faster without Irving on the floor in the last 8 games and slightly faster when Luka is on court compared to when he is not. The highest difference in pace on/off is for Bullock (higher pace when he doesn't play) and Holliday (the other way around compared to Bullock).

[sefant]

Was bored


Wether Luka's minutes and rest pattern needs some adjustment. Its pretty clearly that Luka / Wood had problems alone and together since the break. Both have the worst raw +/- since the break/trade (last 11 games). Its a low sample size of course. But its something to watch. Wouldn't say its nothing. Doing better in those stretches could been the reason of winning or losing, if a lot of games are going down to the wire. You might wanna try something different with the rotation. If the trend continues ...


Kyrie +72
THJ +46
Frank +42
Hardy +30
Powell +20
Bullock +17
Green +12
Kleber +6
Holiday -3
Luka -15
Wood -44


Luka / Wood since the break:

101.9 ORtg
129.4 DefRtg

-27.5 net in 73 min

The only positive Wood combo is Frank at +36.3, and Wood/Hardy at +0.4 net. The rest don't really look good at all.

[ballsrchr]

....In any case, I fully believe this team can work it out, because I believe in Luka. I'm interested to see if anyone else noticed this and what their thoughts are.  Looking forward to the game against UTA tomorrow!

Great post!  Keep up the good work.  Interesting thoughts and on point.

I've noticed in the late game slow down, mostly with Luka, is when opposing teams gain points.  Certainly I believe most of it is in defense, but the pace allows the other team to be ready for anything the Mavs throw at them.  

In earlier quarters the Mavs pace is variable, which usually confuses the other team.  The bench players--with Kyrie--play faster and usually make gains in points.  This also induces Luka to play a little faster, at times, in the first 3 quarters, but especially the first quarter.  Rather than letting pace be a weakness in the 4 quarter, mostly...it can be utilized as a strength in all quarters.  Kyrie seems to have it down.  Luka needs to learn the power of pace, rather than relying on his superior size, strength, handling, and BBIQ.  A tired Luka no longer has that advantage.

I was against the Kyrie trade.  For at least the short range I was wrong.  Kyrie seems like the ideal playing partner for Luka..IF Luka can learn to play with him.  Luka has some stuff he can learn from Kyrie.  I can see that they are both trying to play together...but it's going to take some time--and we don't have much time left.

I am concerned with coaching.  I hope there is something positive going on that I don't know about.

[ItsGoTime]

Was bored


Wether Luka's minutes and rest pattern needs some adjustment. Its pretty clearly that Luka / Wood had problems alone and together since the break. Both have the worst raw +/- since the break/trade (last 11 games). Its a low sample size of course. But its something to watch. Wouldn't say its nothing. Doing better in those stretches could been the reason of winning or losing, if a lot of games are going down to the wire. You might wanna try something different with the rotation. If the trend continues ...


Kyrie +72
THJ +46
Frank +42
Hardy +30
Powell +20
Bullock +17
Green +12
Kleber +6
Holiday -3
Luka -15
Wood -44


Luka / Wood since the break:

101.9 ORtg
129.4 DefRtg

-27.5 net in 73 min

The only positive Wood combo is Frank at +36.3, and Wood/Hardy at +0.4 net. The rest don't really look good at all.

This is tremendous work and shows me what my eye test said a long time ago. Luka should not be playing full quarters during the game. Seems to me the reasoning behind it is to make sure he is in for the end of every quarter. 

Being -11 to start the game is what it is, our starters are not that good compared to the teams we’ve played. Being -7 at the end of the 1st tells me he’s getting tired by that time.  Being -17 at the end of the 3rd tells me he’s pooped at that point.

I really wish this coaching staff would adjust his minutes so he gets shorter rests, but more of them throughout the game. Result of having the same overall minutes, just broken up so he can rest his body more throughout the game. I really think this would help him get back to being clutch like he was when he first came into the league.