Playoff Rotation

[Smitty]

Looking back at last year, I wanted to see what this year's potential playoff rotation would be. Since the Mavs are looking at buyout options, it's a fun exercise to see where the weakness might be. This isn't necessarily what I would do, rather a mix of what I would do and what they'll actually do.

Last year there were 10 players who played in 12 games or more (18 playoff games total)

Luka 36.8 mpg (15 Games)
Brunson 34.9 mpg
Bullock 39.3 mpg
DFS 38.2 mpg
Powell 13.8 mpg

Dinwiddie 27.8 mpg
Kleber 25.4 mpg
Bertans 10.7 mpg
Frank 10.4 mpg (12 Games)
Green 7.6 mpg (16 Games)

First half:

Luka_______12 _________       Kai______7______Luka___5____
Kai ___7___Green___5____     THJ__4__Hardy___5___Kai__3__
THJ___7___Bullock___5___      Bullock[i]______9_______THJ__3__[/i]
Green[i]___7___Wood__5___      Wood_____7_____Green___5___[/i]
Powell___7___Kleber__5__       Kleber_4_McGee__5__Kleber_3__


Second half:

Luka_______12 _________       [i]Kai___4___Luka______8_______[/i]
Kai ___7___Green___5____     THJ__4___Kai_______8________
THJ___7___Bullock___5___      Bullock[i]______9_______THJ__3__[/i]
Green _[i]__7___Wood__5___     Wood__4__Green_____8________[/i]
Powell___7___Kleber__5__       Kleber__4__McGee__5__Kleber_3_


Total minutes:

Luka 37
Kai 36
THJ 28
Green 37
Powell 14

Bullock 28
Maxi 24
Wood 21
McGee 10
Hardy 5

[ItsGoTime]

I really hate and don’t understand why we are wearing Luka out by playing him 2 full quarters during a game. He is so less effective when he’s so worn out.

[mvossman]

Looking back at last year, I wanted to see what this year's potential playoff rotation would be. Since the Mavs are looking at buyout options, it's a fun exercise to see where the weakness might be. This isn't necessarily what I would do, rather a mix of what I would do and what they'll actually do.

Last year there were 10 players who played in 12 games or more (18 playoff games total)

Luka 36.8 mpg (15 Games)
Brunson 34.9 mpg
Bullock 39.3 mpg
DFS 38.2 mpg
Powell 13.8 mpg

Dinwiddie 27.8 mpg
Kleber 25.4 mpg
Bertans 10.7 mpg
Frank 10.4 mpg (12 Games)
Green 7.6 mpg (16 Games)

First half:

Luka_______12 _________       Kai______7______Luka___5____
Kai ___7___Green___5____     THJ__4__Hardy___5___Kai__3__
THJ___7___Bullock___5___      Bullock[i]______9_______THJ__3__[/i]
Green[i]___7___Wood__5___      Wood_____7_____Green___5___[/i]
Powell___7___Kleber__5__       Kleber_4_McGee__5__Kleber_3__


Second half:

Luka_______12 _________       [i]Kai___4___Luka______8_______[/i]
Kai ___7___Green___5____     THJ__4___Kai_______8________
THJ___7___Bullock___5___      Bullock[i]______9_______THJ__3__[/i]
Green _[i]__7___Wood__5___     Wood__4__Green_____8________[/i]
Powell___7___Kleber__5__       Kleber__4__McGee__5__Kleber_3_


Total minutes:

Luka 37
Kai 36
THJ 28
Green 37
Powell 14

Bullock 28
Maxi 24
Wood 21
McGee 10
Hardy 5

I think this is very close to the way it will play out.  I think the most under question is the big minutes.  Will McGee continue to show a pulse?  Will Wood force his way into bigger minutes or will the Wood/Kidd thing get worse?

The one thing I would change is more semantical than anything else.  I would argue that with that starting lineup Kai is the point guard and Luka is the Power Forward (or point forward if you will).  There is nobody else in that starting lineup with the size to guard power forwards, and it definitely won't be Green.  You can put Luka in the PG line when Kai is out as in all those cases there is a legit power forward on the floor.  That means Kai will always be in line 1 (backed up by Luka) and Green will always be in line 2 (backed up by Timmy and Hardy).  Line 3 will be Timmy starting but dominated by Bullock minutes.  Line 4 will be Luka backed up by Maxi (Maxi is more of power forward/perimeter player than Wood).  The center line will be Powell, Wood, McGee and Maxi.

You have a couple of minutes in the second quarter with Wood and McGee.  I would make those Wood/Maxi.  That changes the minutes to Maxi 26 and McGee 8.  I could live with that.

[Scott41theMavs]

I really hate and don’t understand why we are wearing Luka out by playing him 2 full quarters during a game. He is so less effective when he’s so worn out.

I both agree and disagree. With Kai here, no reason for him to play "injury minutes" (as a friend of mine once referred to Kidd's ridiculous minutes in his second year in the league back in the '95-'96 season). On the other, homie still needs to get into shape.

In any event, Kai has the 4th quarter skins on the wall that should convince LD that at this point in their careers, Irving should be the closer.

[ItsGoTime]

I both agree and disagree. With Kai here, no reason for him to play "injury minutes" (as a friend of mine once referred to Kidd's ridiculous minutes in his second year in the league back in the '95-'96 season). On the other, homie still needs to get into shape.

In any event, Kai has the 4th quarter skins on the wall that should convince LD that at this point in their careers, Irving should be the closer.

In shape or not, it’s almost impossible for any player to go at 100% for a full quarter. Getting worn out, then sitting for an extended period of time is also not good.

[Smitty]

I think this is very close to the way it will play out.  I think the most under question is the big minutes.  Will McGee continue to show a pulse?  Will Wood force his way into bigger minutes or will the Wood/Kidd thing get worse?

The one thing I would change is more semantical than anything else.  I would argue that with that starting lineup Kai is the point guard and Luka is the Power Forward (or point forward if you will).  There is nobody else in that starting lineup with the size to guard power forwards, and it definitely won't be Green.  You can put Luka in the PG line when Kai is out as in all those cases there is a legit power forward on the floor.  That means Kai will always be in line 1 (backed up by Luka) and Green will always be in line 2 (backed up by Timmy and Hardy).  Line 3 will be Timmy starting but dominated by Bullock minutes.  Line 4 will be Luka backed up by Maxi (Maxi is more of power forward/perimeter player than Wood).  The center line will be Powell, Wood, McGee and Maxi.

You have a couple of minutes in the second quarter with Wood and McGee.  I would make those Wood/Maxi.  That changes the minutes to Maxi 26 and McGee 8.  I could live with that.

Yeah, it was much easier to make it presentable visually to not try and put a position swap based on the personnel on the floor. Trying to keep the substitution times consistent was the main focus. I don’t see Green being the “Power Forward” for 20+ minutes but using a bit of reasoning you can see how Luka or Bullock would slide there when they share the floor.

[mvossman]

Yeah, it was much easier to make it presentable visually to not try and put a position swap based on the personnel on the floor. Trying to keep the substitution times consistent was the main focus. I don’t see Green being the “Power Forward” for 20+ minutes but using a bit of reasoning you can see how Luka or Bullock would slide there when they share the floor.

I suppose, although you have Kai jumping between lines 1 and 2 and Green jumping between lines 2 and 4.  You could replace that with just Luka jumping between lines 1 and 4.  Its easy to keep a primary playmaker on the court at all times with Luka and Kai.  The tough part with this undersized team is to make sure you have enough size on the court for any given lineup.

[vfromlmf]

This is always a fun topic ... and illuminates the complexity of saying so-and-so should get more minutes. Certain guys need to be on the floor with certain other guys at certain times ... and guys also need rest. Building a starting lineup is easy, but building an effective lineup after say, the third substitution of the second quarter, is where things get tricky and you realize the trade-offs of getting a guy like Green from something like 24 to 32 minutes.

If you watch the substitution patterns and pay attention to roles both offensively and defensively it becomes apparent that THJ is actually the guy who's being asked to do more and play out of position the most.

Dallas starts: LUKA - KYRIE - GREEN - THJ - POWELL

THJ is in the fourth spot intentionally. Luka and Kai are clearly the lead guards on offense while Green and THJ play off the wings. Dallas switches things up defensively with Green taking the opponent's lead initiator and THJ guarding off-ball while Luka and Kai defend the wings. This will change after the first wing substitution and/or if the opponent has a bigger scoring wing. THJ is taking the challenge.

The first actual sub might actually be McGee for Powell. LUKA - KYRIE - GREEN - THJ - MCGEE
This keeps the basic game plan intact and I get the sense that Kidd wants to open the game with size and physicality, so swapping McGee for Powell accomplishes this. One offensive style with 12 available fouls. Powell is a better positional defender, and McGee brings more size and rebounding. It think it may be ideal if Kidd can get the pair to the 10 minute mark.

I'll spare the interim lineup changes in the interest of brevity and note Hardy is handling most of the backup guard minutes and if he continues to play defense, I think he'll get some playoff minutes. He's replacing Kai around the 7 minute mark which gets him a solid 4-5 minute run next to Luka in the first quarter. He'll stay on and play next to Kyrie to open the second.

Bullock is coming on for Green; Pinson (in Kleber's spot) is coming on for THJ; then Wood joins the party replacing McGee. Once Kleber is back he and Wood may come on together closer to the 6 minute mark, but if McGee continues to play well, expect Kidd to continues with a three-headed monster at center and extend Powell/McGee as long as he can get away with it. Wood is the 10th man.

That leaves the lineup to close the first quarter: LUKA - HARDY - BULLOCK - PINSON (KLEBER) - WOOD

Second quarter, more of the same, except Kyrie for Luka: KYRIE - HARDY - BULLOCK - PINSON (KLEBER) - WOOD ... this lineup is small with two legit PG-sized guards, but fast 

First sub of the second quarter is Green for Hardy and now Green is playing off-guard. I'm excited to see this lineup when Kleber is back: KYRIE - GREEN - BULLOCK - PINSON (KLEBER) - WOOD

Next substitution is likely around the six minute mark, bringing Luka back along with other starters. Kyrie may get a short 2-3 minute rest. Kleber will rest so he can come back to finish the half. We could get a couple of minutes of Wood as the solo big here: LUKA - GREEN - BULLOCK - THJ - WOOD

Next Kyrie will come back replacing Bullock, allowing Green will slide back to the wing. I expect Kleber to close the half. LUKA - KYRIE - GREEN - THJ - KLEBER

After all of this Luka and Kyrie should land around 36 minutes although they'll likely be closer to 40 in the playoffs. 

Hardy may land around 16 minutes in the regular rotation but he'll get squeezed by Luka, Kyrie and Green in the playoffs.

Green should be at 32-34 minutes, mostly on the wing with a short run in both halves at guard.

I think Bullock will see the biggest drop off once Kleber returns. 24-28 minutes, all in a traditional 3&D wing role.

THJ needs to play at least 28 minutes to make the rotations work, and he'll mostly guard bigger wings and forwards. He's undersized for the role and will need to rebound.

Powell & McGee should combine for 16-20 minutes

Wood should be around 20-24

Kleber will be around 24-28 minutes and finish both halves as the solo big.

[Chicagojk]

I really hate and don’t understand why we are wearing Luka out by playing him 2 full quarters during a game. He is so less effective when he’s so worn out.

It is probably as simple as this is what Luka wants.  Maybe he doesn't like the sitting down and getting his body lose.    I would personally like to take him out 2 minutes left in the quarter and then bring him back 3-4 minutes in the next.   It gets him a good rest with the end of quarter as well.   It also gives our bench time to play together.   

I agree the end of quarters is where we get both the really good scoring runs but also the tired step back threes and poor transition to defense.

[KillerLeft]

It is probably as simple as this is what Luka wants.

[ItsGoTime]

It is probably as simple as this is what Luka wants.  Maybe he doesn't like the sitting down and getting his body lose.    I would personally like to take him out 2 minutes left in the quarter and then bring him back 3-4 minutes in the next.   It gets him a good rest with the end of quarter as well.   It also gives our bench time to play together.   

I agree the end of quarters is where we get both the really good scoring runs but also the tired step back threes and poor transition to defense.

Ugh, why is history repeating itself? The “it’s what Luka wants” is literally the mantra of the Cavs with Lebron.

[KillerLeft]

Ugh, why is history repeating itself? The “it’s what Luka wants” is literally the mantra of the Cavs with Lebron.

Agree completely.

[ItsGoTime]

Agree completely.

The book was literally and so recently written on what not to do with your NBA infant megastar and we are ignoring it completely!

[ThisIStheYear]

I’d go with three pods of three players:

Luka, Kyrie, and Green play at least 35 minutes each for 105 minutes
Your three bigs (Maxi, Powell, and Wood) will split at most 55 minutes.  
THJ, Reggie, and Hardy split the remaining 80 minutes

McGee, Bertans, and Frank are available for spot duty.

The Mavs are set. It would be ideal if the had a a hybrid power/small forward, but that will have to wait. This team has enough to make some noise if they can find some rebounding.

[KillerLeft]

The book was literally and so recently written on what not to do with your NBA infant megastar and we are ignoring it completely!

Agree, but on the other hand, just giving in to him on some things is only part of what went wrong in Cleveland. A big part, sure, but not all of it. And, just like we can't assume the situations will be perfect mirrors, these individual people (Luka, LeBron, others) are different, too. 

For example, as loathe as I was (still am, really) to mortgage the future on the Kyrie trade, I cannot deny the energy that has been injected into the franchise in the short time since. I see clearly that this season is going to be positively impacted in a significant way due to that decision. 

If Luka wants to play big minutes, whether it's the less than ideal motivation of winning the scoring title, it's just that he thinks it's the best way for the team to win or something in-between, that's what they kind of have to do to have his head focused on performing, and not on how he's being used. If that's where this is coming from (probably is) then I think you just have to wait for lowing his minutes to be his idea, kind of. 

But, if it is Kidd running him into the ground, Nick Nurse style, which is possible, I agree - stupid approach.

[KillerLeft]

I’d go with three pods of three players:

Luka, Kyrie, and Green play at least 35 minutes each for 105 minutes
Your three bigs (Maxi, Powell, and Wood) will split at most 55 minutes.  
THJ, Reggie, and Hardy split the remaining 80 minutes

McGee, Bertans, and Frank are available for spot duty.

The Mavs are set. It would be ideal if the had a a hybrid power/small forward, but that will have to wait. This team has enough to make some noise if they can find some rebounding.

Could be wrong, but I wouldn't expect Hardy to be in the playoff rotation at all. I admit, he's close enough for it to be plausible, so I'm not 100% convinced of that. That one will be interesting. 

I'm also less convinced than others that we're about to go from 20 minutes per for Green right to 40 minutes per in the playoffs. I get where that's coming from, and we ALL know more Green is needed, but I think there are 1-2 steps to maneuver between "not even a regular in the rotation" (how he ended last season) and "third most integral player, minutes wise, on the team" (where DFS has been for the past few seasons). I think there's a conditioning/game planned against element to that transition that we're very much assuming won't be an issue. Maybe it won't be, but I kind of doubt it. 

My guess is that Green, Bullock and THJ are very close to even, minutes wise, and THAT is a LOT more Green than we were getting even just 2-3 weeks ago.

[Smitty]

I’m not sure I understand the argument. Luka plays the same amount of minutes as the top 15 or so players in the NBA do. The same amount as 38 year old Lebron James and less than his new teammate, 30 years young, Kyrie Irving. It’s a nothing-burger.

[KillerLeft]

I’m not sure I understand the argument. Luka plays the same amount of minutes as the top 15 or so players in the NBA do. The same amount as 38 year old Lebron James and less than his new teammate, 30 years young, Kyrie Irving. It’s a nothing-burger.

Yeah, there's a lot of truth to this. 

I think the opposing viewpoint is probably like "look how much worse he plays when he's worn down" which I kind of agree with. 

But to your point, learning how to play those minutes kind of IS the superstar's job. So, in a way, that's kind of like saying "he's not quite good enough at this level yet." I think Kamm and others rail on his conditioning a bit too much, and there's certainly a version of his career where the solution is to play him less, but that's not the version that Luka is hoping to have play out. He WANTS to be a superstar, and WANTS to play those big minutes. It's just that doing so is difficult in a way we here probably can't fully appreciate. NBA stars, including some that we as fans don't fully appreciate make those kind of minutes look easy. I wouldn't say Luka is quiiiiiiite there yet with that, specific challenge.

[ItsGoTime]

I’m not sure I understand the argument. Luka plays the same amount of minutes as the top 15 or so players in the NBA do. The same amount as 38 year old Lebron James and less than his new teammate, 30 years young, Kyrie Irving. It’s a nothing-burger.

Only thing I’ve been talking about is playing the full 1st and 3rd quarters. I wish they would break that up so he has more moments to rest his body. Love the thought of playing him 36-38 mpg.

[mvossman]

Could be wrong, but I wouldn't expect Hardy to be in the playoff rotation at all. I admit, he's close enough for it to be plausible, so I'm not 100% convinced of that. That one will be interesting. 

I'm also less convinced than others that we're about to go from 20 minutes per for Green right to 40 minutes per in the playoffs. I get where that's coming from, and we ALL know more Green is needed, but I think there are 1-2 steps to maneuver between "not even a regular in the rotation" (how he ended last season) and "third most integral player, minutes wise, on the team" (where DFS has been for the past few seasons). I think there's a conditioning/game planned against element to that transition that we're very much assuming won't be an issue. Maybe it won't be, but I kind of doubt it. 

My guess is that Green, Bullock and THJ are very close to even, minutes wise, and THAT is a LOT more Green than we were getting even just 2-3 weeks ago.

I think a lot will depend on the rest of the season.  If he is in the starting lineup to stay, he is going to get a lot more minutes than he used to, partly because Dorian is gone (and they did nothing to fill that space).  If he can hold his own for the rest of the season under a heavy load, he is probably going to see a similar load in the playoffs.  They don't have a lot of choice.  They desperately need his defense with Dorian gone.