Trade & FA 2023-24: Stein-Ingram Trade Inevitable| LAL Want Lebron Back On Any Terms

[Chicagojk]

I can tell my points are being ignored, but I will say it again - we do NOT want Brogdon.

There are several significant reasons, and each of them alone would be a disqualifier.

The 1st is that he is NOT the quality of player you think he is. He's not two-way, not anymore. He doesn't (perhaps he can't, because of injuries?) play good defense anymore. Just the opposite- he's really bad. Over the last 4-5 years, he has been about the WORST defender on his team, per B-R def ratings. He is now a BAD defender. 

Whereas, the #1 first-priority criteria for a player to play alongside Luka-Kyrie is that they defend at a good-to-excellent level, to make up for the deficiencies of Luka-Kyrie. For role players, the Mavs need defenders, who they can hopefully find some offense from, rather than offense-only guys who make getting stops impossible.

The 2nd is that he is NOT someone you can rely on, because his knees are broken. Typically he plays half a season (or less). It's the KP thing, where you don't know when he will be injured each season, but you know it's gonna happen. It's very likely that he would never play a playoff game, because he can't make it to those games 83-and-beyond healthy.

The 3rd is that he gets paid way more money than you should ever pay to a one-way, no-defense, ever-injured player. He's about double the MLE. The cost in assets, just to make the trade and match salary (you have to send more than 22.5M in outgoing salary), will be far more than he's worth, and you only get a half-the-games, no-defense guy with broken knees.

Hard pass.

I have just always liked the player.   I assume I will have different directions I will prefer and I don't think I would be willing to give us the asking price for Brogdan.   So it is probably moot.    I think he would work here though.  Injury history is real though.

[SwisherPrice]

Defensively, I think the last 2 months have shown what kind of players the Mavs need. You have to be tall and long and that will allow you to be good defensively against every team and matchup. DJJ and PJ can guard 4 positions, especially SG/Forwards. I know people are obsessed with finding a POA defender like a Caruso or Alvarado to guard quick PGs but those smaller defenders don't have the versatility to guard bigger scorers. And just as important - having size and length allows them to be good help defenders and recover.

Paul George has the ball and tries to shoot but DJJ's length won't make it an easy shot. So then PG tries to drive and is met in the lane by any combination of PJ/Luka/Lively/Gafford/Kleber. Those are all players with a lot of length and will make it difficult to get a shot off.

[mvossman]

Defensively, I think the last 2 months have shown what kind of players the Mavs need. You have to be tall and long and that will allow you to be good defensively against every team and matchup. DJJ and PJ can guard 4 positions, especially SG/Forwards. I know people are obsessed with finding a POA defender like a Caruso or Alvarado to guard quick PGs but those smaller defenders don't have the versatility to guard bigger scorers. And just as important - having size and length allows them to be good help defenders and recover.

Paul George has the ball and tries to shoot but DJJ's length won't make it an easy shot. So then PG tries to drive and is met in the lane by any combination of PJ/Luka/Lively/Gafford/Kleber. Those are all players with a lot of length and will make it difficult to get a shot off.

Size/length is not the only factor that makes a player good at defense.  There are plenty of guys with length who don't play quality defense, and guys like VanVleet use strength and anticipation/BBIQ to guard guys a lot bigger than them.  Besides, Caruso is the same height as DJJ (6' 5").  He may not have the wingspan, but he is not just limited to defending guards.  As good as DJJ has been defensively, I think Caruso would actually be an upgrade.

[Scott41theMavs]

Size/length is not the only factor that makes a player good at defense.  There are plenty of guys with length who don't play quality defense, and guys like VanVleet use strength and anticipation/BBIQ to guard guys a lot bigger than them.  Besides, Caruso is the same height as DJJ (6' 5").  He may not have the wingspan, but he is not just limited to defending guards.  As good as DJJ has been defensively, I think Caruso would actually be an upgrade.

Would he, though, at his age and with his recent injury concerns?

[Branduil]

Is it time to talk about Jerami Grant again? Would he be willing to be the two-way scoring 6th man we need? What would it take to trade for him?

[F Gump]

Is it time to talk about Jerami Grant again? Would he be willing to be the two-way scoring 6th man we need? What would it take to trade for him?

I have no interest whatsoever in Grant. Other might feel differently, but I just don't see the attraction. He was very desirable when he was an MLE player in DEN taking limited shots and doing the dirty work, but now he has the expectation that he gets lots of shots and let someone else do the dirty work. I say that makes him a bad fit for the Mavs.

I'm not sure that in the current NBA economic model, you can afford 3-or-more max type players. Trying to squeeze in 3 rather than 2, you can fit in the salary for the big names, but the quality of the roster gets real thin quickly. Look at the Mavs, where the only bad contract is probably THJ, and with only 2 max players the payroll is already really full. See DJJ, Salary for.

And I'm sure Grant's trade price tag would be a deal killer for me. You have to send out salary of $30M, which means you are sending out multiple very needed players. Plus picks - POR would undoubtedly be asking for multiple picks too, because on a going-nowhere team, why wouldn't they have high price tags? They can wait for someone to pay an arm and a leg. 

For this summer, it's not as splashy, but I rather see the Mavs trying to turn THJ (or THJ + , to get to a proper salary match) into someone much more useful by attaching his expiring contract to a pick (which pick being determined by which player, of course). But imo Grant's not anywhere close to that guy (or the right salary, either). Avdija? Isaac? Somebody in NO? Thybulle? Caruso?

[omahen]

Based on how the playoffs have gone so far, I am perfectly happy with the starting 5. Luka, Kyrie and centers were a lock in any case. PJ is doing a good enough job on both ends so he won't be considered to be moved. DJJ has been awesome defensively and is not a huge liability defensively. The only way to upgrade either PJ or DJJ would be if we bring in a third star, which would be of course paid near max money. Unlike FGump I don't think that would be too difficult to accomplish. THJ and Green is almost 30 mil, add in PJ or Maxi (depending which position you are replacing) and you get to 40 mil.

However, I think Mavs lack the 6th man, based on what we know so far. An all around guy that can do a bit of everything, a bit of creating for himself and others, a decent defender, can play off ball, can shoot. THJ can only shoot and he is not so great at it. Exum has totally dissapeared in the playoffs after he very much looked the part in regular season. Green is his same old same - brings some energy but way to timid and inconsistent.

While I always liked Grant, I don't think he is that much of an upgrade over PJ to be worth the trouble. He is certainly not the 6th man type, imho.

[omahen]

I'm not sure that in the current NBA economic model, you can afford 3-or-more max type players. Trying to squeeze in 3 rather than 2, you can fit in the salary for the big names, but the quality of the roster gets real thin quickly. 

Tmiberwolves, Nuggets and Celtics all run this model. Assuming they are able to keep Mitchel and pay Mobley a max or near max deal, Cleveland will get there too. I think quality will be paid. The art will be to have good contributors on small deals, either rookie ones or low vet deals. Phoenix failed in that part (besides the fact their stars are a bad fit).

[omahen]

Real problems for teams come when their stars hit the supermax deals. Boston in two years and Mavs in three. While supermax was designed with an intention for small market teams being able to keep their homegrown stars, their high salary is actually very limiting towards roster building. The real advantage would be, if that supermax difference wouldn't count towards salary cap. The way it is, you are able to pay your star more than others, but also limited towards what you can put next to them, as they take 35 % of salary cap space on their own.

[mvossman]

Would he, though, at his age and with his recent injury concerns?

Does he have recent injury concerns?  He played 71 games this season and 67 last.

[mvossman]

Based on how the playoffs have gone so far, I am perfectly happy with the starting 5. Luka, Kyrie and centers were a lock in any case. PJ is doing a good enough job on both ends so he won't be considered to be moved. DJJ has been awesome defensively and is not a huge liability defensively. The only way to upgrade either PJ or DJJ would be if we bring in a third star, which would be of course paid near max money. Unlike FGump I don't think that would be too difficult to accomplish. THJ and Green is almost 30 mil, add in PJ or Maxi (depending which position you are replacing) and you get to 40 mil.

However, I think Mavs lack the 6th man, based on what we know so far. An all around guy that can do a bit of everything, a bit of creating for himself and others, a decent defender, can play off ball, can shoot. THJ can only shoot and he is not so great at it. Exum has totally dissapeared in the playoffs after he very much looked the part in regular season. Green is his same old same - brings some energy but way to timid and inconsistent.

While I always liked Grant, I don't think he is that much of an upgrade over PJ to be worth the trouble. He is certainly not the 6th man type, imho.

I agree with most of this, but the DJJ thing is based on a small sample.  He is career 32% from 3 and was 34 this season.  He has had a nice run in the playoffs so far, but my guess is that if we go deep enough he is going to regress to his averages.  I feel like he is somebody we could upgrade without getting a star.

Agree on the 6th man need. Exum has been so disappointing.  This is probably higher priority than 5th starter unless we can't hold on to DJJ.  Also agree on Grant.  Gives me a little bit of Kuz vibes.

[SleepingHero]

@TheDunkCentral
The Philadelphia 76ers are expected to monitor Jimmy Butler’s situation in Miami, per
@WindhorstESPN

[dirkfansince1998]

@TheDunkCentral
The Philadelphia 76ers are expected to monitor Jimmy Butler’s situation in Miami, per
@WindhorstESPN

Not sure if Butler is willing to be the scapegoat again. But it would be hilarious if they burn their remaining assets to trade for an older and worse version of the player that they kicked out five years ago.

[omahen]

I agree with most of this, but the DJJ thing is based on a small sample.  He is career 32% from 3 and was 34 this season.  He has had a nice run in the playoffs so far, but my guess is that if we go deep enough he is going to regress to his averages.  I feel like he is somebody we could upgrade without getting a star.

Agree on the 6th man need. Exum has been so disappointing.  This is probably higher priority than 5th starter unless we can't hold on to DJJ.  Also agree on Grant.  Gives me a little bit of Kuz vibes.

DJJ is a low volume shooter and defenses will be leaving him open while concentrating on the stars and the paint. He is shooting just a bit over 2 threes per game so far in the playoffs. Key is if he can contribute without shooting and he has been so far. Good in transition, had some really nice cuts in a couple of games. He shot 12 threes in total and 22 two pointers. He is scoring almost 10 ppg (that is with a zero in game 1), which would be his career high over regular season. If he can keep this up, I would rather do whatever is needed to keep him than pay assets for Thybulle or Caruso.

[mvossman]

DJJ is a low volume shooter and defenses will be leaving him open while concentrating on the stars and the paint. He is shooting just a bit over 2 threes per game so far in the playoffs. Key is if he can contribute without shooting and he has been so far. Good in transition, had some really nice cuts in a couple of games. He shot 12 threes in total and 22 two pointers. He is scoring almost 10 ppg (that is with a zero in game 1), which would be his career high over regular season. If he can keep this up, I would rather do whatever is needed to keep him than pay assets for Thybulle or Caruso.

That limited shooting is part of the overall offensive problem.  That fact that he is left wide open means Luka and Kyrie have much less room to operate.  An occasional cut and minor plus in transition does not make up for the spacing issue.  As I mentioned, way too small sample to think he will shoot like this going forward.  

I would definitely not argue for paying assets for Thybulle.  He is more offensively limited than DJJ.  Caruso would be an upgrade, and a Timmy for Caruso swap would make it more likely you can retain DJJ (who would still be a very useful rotations piece regardless.

[Chicagojk]

We will see how this year finishes and what players become available, but at this point I think I would look to move Hardaway and our future seconds for a guy who fits better. That may not be available. At this time, I would like to hold on to your young players and future draft assets.

I just feel teams like the Suns, Bucks and maybe Clippers that once you start mortgaging your future it is a long process down a deep hole. Always looking for that magical fix. I saw a report that the Suns will be looking to package their first this year and their 2031 first to find an updgrade.

[mvossman]

We will see how this year finishes and what players become available, but at this point I think I would look to move Hardaway and our future seconds for a guy who fits better.    That may not be available.  At this time, I would like to hold on to your young players and future draft assets.

I just feel teams like the Suns, Bucks and maybe Clippers that once you start mortgaging your future it is a long process down a deep hole.  Always looking for that magical fix.  I saw a report that the Suns will be looking to package their first this year and their 2031 first to find an updgrade.

Yeah, not sure who that might be?  Timmy tanked his value completely into expiring contract so you are looking for a longer neutral contract at best.  In a crazy scenario if we could sign DJJ for the BAE then maybe we dump Timmy contract for a couple of seconds and spend the MLE on someone else, but that seems unlikely.

[michaeltex]

   I saw a report that the Suns will be looking to package their first this year and their 2031 first to find an updgrade.

Low FRP in what is billed as the worst draft in years and another one 7 years out? Not an attractive package.

But I'd be willing to dump THJ for these picks just to open up the salary space for DJJ.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Based on how the playoffs have gone so far, I am perfectly happy with the starting 5. Luka, Kyrie and centers were a lock in any case. PJ is doing a good enough job on both ends so he won't be considered to be moved. DJJ has been awesome defensively and is not a huge liability defensively. The only way to upgrade either PJ or DJJ would be if we bring in a third star, which would be of course paid near max money.  

However, I think Mavs lack the 6th man, based on what we know so far. An all around guy that can do a bit of everything, a bit of creating for himself and others, a decent defender, can play off ball, can shoot. THJ can only shoot and he is not so great at it.  

For this summer, it's not as splashy, but I rather see the Mavs trying to turn THJ (or THJ + , to get to a proper salary match) into someone much more useful by attaching his expiring contract to a pick (which pick being determined by which player, of course). But imo Grant's not anywhere close to that guy (or the right salary, either). Avdija? Isaac? Somebody in NO? Thybulle? Caruso?

I've been thinking about this as I've watched the playoffs.   We don't need a third 'star'.  First, we have one already, he just has to mature.  Lively will be a Team USA center in the not too distant future.  Adding offense is really tricky.  I don't see any player who 'requires' the ball working here with Luka and Kyrie (unless they play mainly when one of them sits).  I also don't see how to upgrade a starting spot without sacrificing any D.  Playoff success requires putting defenders around Luka and Kyrie.  We have a delicate balance right now that works well.  

If I see a hole, it probably is that scoring sixth man who can create for himself and others, but can also play off the ball.  If you get a guy who can also play defense, you are talking about a star and we don't have the juice to get a star.  Instead, I like the fringe moves Nico has made.  I'd like to see one more of those.  Like almost everyone, I see THJ's expiring deal as the core piece that needs to be outgoing.  Unlike some, I don't have anyone else I'm dying to get rid of.

Here is my view of the roster:

Center (Lively, Gafford, Maxi):  

Don't change a thing.  This "bullpen" approach is working.  Lively is going to be a stud.  Gafford is/was critical to not being forced to overplay Maxi and to not being totally dependent on Lively avoiding rookie fouls (plus injury insurance).  Maxi is the critical diversifier.  Can we play 48 minutes of Rim Roller/Paint Protector - Yes.  Can we play 5-Out half a game or more if need be - Yes.  The C position is a strength.  Some have historically pushed a narrative that we have to play this way or that.  If you don't have a top 3-5 center what you HAVE to do is be able to play multiple ways.

Big Forward (PJ, Maxi, OMax):

Again, I'm really happy with this position.  I don't see a way to upgrade PJ without giving up too much in assets or giving up too much on the defensive end.  He works great around the other pieces.  Maxi's flexibility is also valuable here as you can retain size if you want in the non-PJ minutes.  Maxi is older and misses time every year.  I see OMax being the natural heir-apparent to Maxi as he slows down.

Defensive Wing (DJJ, Green, Exum):   

If your stars are Luka/Kyrie, you have to have someone like DJJ who can take the other team's top scorer.  I don't think he's easy to replace (especially in the playoffs).  In fact, I see keeping Jones Jr. as a critical element to any plan going forward.  As I hoped (and feared from a financial standpoint), he's been unbelievable through five games.  He's worth more than the TP MLE and I think it will require a discount on his part for him to sign here for that (I'll remind everyone that it wasn't that long ago that he signed a 2 year $19mm contract).  He came here with the idea of rebuilding value and he picked the perfect spot to do it.  As we see the playoffs unfold, these 'stoppers' who have 'some' offensive game are absolute musts in slowing down the best offensive players on the other team.

Green and Exum are very nice bench pieces who bring slightly different things.  I can see Green or Exum as a 5th Starter/Occasional Starter.  The team has had success with either in the starting lineup and it is really nice to have 7th/8th/9th man types who are good enough to be 5th man.  Green's "energy defender/rebounder who can hit a 3 and moves the ball and runs the floor" role off the bench is a really good role for him right now.  Exum is super valuable when Luka or Kyrie need a night off.  He was fantastic in the regular season and I suspect we've not heard the last of him in the playoffs.  LAC doesn't have a smallish quick guard to worry about, but some team will and Exum will be a better fit in a different series.  It is also nice to get some additional ball handling in the game at times.

Scoring - Guard/Wing (Luka, Irving.................Hardy):

I've left THJ out and tried to note the chasm between our stars and Hardy.  The roster just makes more sense when Hardaway is hurt/out.  Sadly, his contract kind of forces you to play him when he's healthy.  If only he could distribute or do something of value when his shot isn't falling.  I really wish he could do the things the Atlanta Bogdanovic does.  That would work very well here if Bogdanovic was willing to come off the bench at age 32 (I even like his 2 years plus a 3rd year TO contract).  Hopefully some team will value Hardaway's expiring deal (sadly, more likely at the TDL than in the summer).  

Hardy brings more to the table in terms of a diverse skill set than Hardaway.  He's just so young.  Is he good enough for a '6th man' role on a team with championship aspirations?  Maybe.  Or, does his youth give you the chance to bring in an older guy as 6th man.  The difference between Hardy as the heir-apparent to an older 6th man type and OMax as the heir-apparent to Maxi is Hardy's contract doesn't line up as nicely as OMax's contract.  Hardy is free in the summer of 2025 and it wouldn't shock me if Rich Paul tries to get him moved this summer to a spot with a better opportunity to show his stuff.  If one wants to advocate for keeping Hardy, one probably has to create a path for him to have a real role in 24/25.  I don't have a strong opinion either way.  I just don't think having Hardy, Green, THJ and Exum all basically competing for crumbs behind Luka and Kyrie is going to work for Hardy and his influential agent.
 
I haven't really started looking at specific names yet.  I'm just enjoying the games and spending much less time thinking about basketball.  I may pop back in occasionally as the playoffs progress and may spend some time thinking about team building strategy in June.  I think you kind of have to resolve the DJJ question before you can worry about adding something.  If he will sign for the TP MLE (2 years with PO on the second), then great.  You can start shopping for something else.  If it takes more, then you have to move salary.  And, if you lose him for nothing in free agency, then the mandate is to find another DJJ (probably through trade).  The list of candidates for what you need is just very different in my mind depending on whether you have DJJ or you don't.

Cheers everyone.

[michaeltex]

Excellent roster review!

My take on Hardy is that he can be a microwave scorer off the bench, but he has yet to show the skills to act as a creator/distributor. Had a chance in summer league, but fell far short of expectations. Hasn't really shown anything during the season in, admittedly, sporadic opportunities. I don't know whether to let him move on or hope another year of seasoning with a high performing roster helps him evolve.