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Trade & FA 2023-24: OKC The Favorite For Nic Claxton Should He Leave BRK
I'm still not sure why this board is still hung up on how many picks we have when there is a ton of young talented bball players that can be offered now as well. The best player traded this season went for a grand total of 0 first round picks. I actually feel we're FINALLY thinking forward correctly with this new CBA. We screwed the shifts the league was making so badly last CBA and Cuban quit paying the tax when it turned out that was the only way to win. Every cap expert out there has been saying that cost controlled young talent is going to be much more valuable in this next CBA and we have a ton of that but of course as soon as we get all that ESPN decides to change tunes.

(02-16-2024, 04:12 PM)RoyTarpleysGhost Wrote: I feel like no one has watched him play in years

You realize he's having one of the best seasons of his career right?...

(02-16-2024, 04:04 PM)RoyTarpleysGhost Wrote: Yeah…that’s working out really great getting a guy who wanted to be in Miami. Milwaukee probably closed their window shut going all in one guy in his 30s.

They are third in the east and have the 7th best record in the league.  I think they're fine.
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(02-16-2024, 04:07 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: Someone will. It will happen when the old guard stars are all gone and Luka is at the top.

I'm not so sure about that. I read an article about star players not wanting to come to Dallas because Luka is so ball dominant. I'm not saying it can't happen, but Luka's style of play doesn't fit everybody. Him and Kyrie seem to be making it work, but adding a 3rd wheel may be tricky. Until Luka is more willing to play off the ball ( he still doesn't) I have a hard time believing another bonafide star will sacrifice coming there.
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(02-16-2024, 05:34 PM)HoosierDaddyKid Wrote: I'm not so sure about that. I read an article about star players not wanting to come to Dallas because Luka is so ball dominant. Him and Kyrie seem to be making it work, but adding a 3rd wheel may be tricky. Until Luka is more willing to play off the ball ( he still doesn't) I have a hard time believing another bonafide star will sacrifice coming there.

That’s ok. I am sure. That was a recent article and I think most of us read it. It would not surprise me if there were some players who felt that way, those aren’t the players I’m talking about. Someone will want to play with him, that seems obvious to me.
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(02-16-2024, 05:34 PM)HoosierDaddyKid Wrote: I'm not so sure about that. I read an article about star players not wanting to come to Dallas because Luka is so ball dominant. I'm not saying it can't happen,  but Luka's style of play doesn't fit everybody. Him and Kyrie seem to be making it work, but adding a 3rd wheel may be tricky. Until Luka is more willing to play off the ball ( he still doesn't) I have a hard time believing another bonafide star will sacrifice coming there.

Perhaps the fact that Kyrie was willing to re-sign with Dallas, and seems to be thriving in this environment, will be a catalyst for other players to consider Dallas as a destination.

Realistically, high-priced free agency won't be the vehicle that brings the superstars here.  It will be a trade.

Now, perhaps the buyout stars at the tail end of their careers might find Dallas more desirable. But right now, Dallas seems pretty deep, so significant playing time might be scarce for those guys.
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(02-16-2024, 03:38 PM)RGP1981 Wrote: I do not mean to sound like Dr. Phil... but this right here sounds like your actual issue? You hate the Lakers so much and care more about any potential benefits for LAL, but not the the potential pitfalls of the deal to LAL? More importantly, you aren't first thinking about how such a deal might benefit the Mavs more than anyone else.

Don't be a fox with sour grapes bro. The Lakers have had nothing to do with the Mavericks' past misfortunes.

You are 100% on the money and I'm not ashamed of it. 

My hate for the Lakers far predates any recent Mavs misfortunes. Heck it predates when the Mavs were even good in the 2000s. The Lakers are the bane of the NBA and whenever they are bad, the league (and the coverage of it) is 10000000000000000000x better.

Unfortunately they've only been bad this most recent decade. Of course the majority of my disdain lies with the media and how they cover them. The refs giving them the easiest path to victory every single game doesn't hurt either. 

Either way, my point stands. Only way I accept a deal from the Lakers is if they dissolve their franchise when they do it.

Last sentence is hyperbole but you get my point. Unless the deal is making the Lakers enter a rebuild I don't really want to help them improve. Even if it "improves" the Mavs, which your hypothetical doesn't really accomplish that.
14x All-Star, 12x all-NBA, 1x MVP, 1x Finals MVP, 1 NBA Championship: Dirk Nowitzki, the man, the myth, the legend.
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(02-16-2024, 05:34 PM)HoosierDaddyKid Wrote: I'm not so sure about that. I read an article about star players not wanting to come to Dallas because Luka is so ball dominant. I'm not saying it can't happen,  but Luka's style of play doesn't fit everybody. Him and Kyrie seem to be making it work, but adding a 3rd wheel may be tricky. Until Luka is more willing to play off the ball ( he still doesn't) I have a hard time believing another bonafide star will sacrifice coming there.

I actually don't care much about this, it doesn't "seem" to work between Luka and Kyrie, it works without qualification because Kyrie is not particularly ball dominant. He's not really been much more ball dominant than Steph Curry for a long while.

We don't need other ball dominant stars to play next to Luka, and those are the ones that would have issues playing here. Luka's style fits anyone who doesn't require the ball in their hands consistently to be effective, and that's fine, because there's not another player this team could acquire that would make the team better having an even split share of ball handling duties with Luka. If a third wheel type is gonna have an issue playing here it's because they are too reliant on ball dominance for their effectiveness, and we don't need that player anyway
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(02-17-2024, 07:22 AM)Dundalis Wrote: I actually don't care much about this, it doesn't "seem" to work between Luka and Kyrie, it works without qualification because Kyrie is not particularly ball dominant. He's not really been much more ball dominant than Steph Curry for a long while.

We don't need other ball dominant stars to play next to Luka, and those are the ones that would have issues playing here. Luka's style fits anyone who doesn't require the ball in their hands consistently to be effective, and that's fine, because there's not another player this team could acquire that would make the team better having an even split share of ball handling duties with Luka. If a third wheel type is gonna have an issue playing here it's because they are too reliant on ball dominance for their effectiveness, and we don't need that player anyway

I hope we make no more major trades for at least one year.  I'd rather let the roster develop together.  Any major change should be a new head coach depending on what we do in the playoffs.

I also don't think we really need to target a 3rd-best player.  Lively already is our 3rd-best player and will be only continue to improve.  

If we target a 4th-best player, it should be an elite defensive player who is decent offensively.  Those players are less expensive to trade for and have smaller contracts than offensive stars.  

My strong preference though is to wait a year and watch how Hardy, Green, PJ Washington and OMax develop.  We also need to see if Exum can return and play at the same level as before the plantar fasciitis.  Each of those players might be the solutions to our roster.  We just need to see which ones improve with experience.
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(02-17-2024, 10:49 AM)surfpuckmd Wrote: I hope we make no more major trades for at least one year.  I'd rather let the roster develop together.  Any major change should be a new head coach depending on what we do in the playoffs.

I also don't think we really need to target a 3rd-best player.  Lively already is our 3rd-best player and will be only continue to improve.  

If we target a 4th-best player, it should be an elite defensive player who is decent offensively.  Those players are less expensive to trade for and have smaller contracts than offensive stars.  

My strong preference though is to wait a year and watch how Hardy, Green, PJ Washington and OMax develop.  We also need to see if Exum can return and play at the same level as before the plantar fasciitis.  Each of those players might be the solutions to our roster.  We just need to see which ones improve with experience.

I'm very huge on "bring back the band" for next year already. While I think it could be a good idea to trade THJ and seconds and/or one first for a really solid upgrade, I am quite content with the 8-man of Luka-Kyrie-Green-Washington-Lively-Exum-Maxi-Gafford. To me, the biggest make-or-break for the 2024-25 season is a somewhat under-the-radar one - they must give OMax real minutes and genuinely develop him. He has the potential to be a huge part of the future, but if they don't develop him, they'll have screwed that pooch. As a matter of fact, a silver lining if they can't keep DJJ will be ***give those minutes to OMax,*** full stop.

One underconsidered reason why the Mavs should start stockpiling more assets is that whenever we move on from Kyrie (or he forces his way out, which at this point doesn't appear to be anytime soon), replacing him as the second star is going to be exorbitantly expensive. They need to have their eyes open for who that guy is already, tbqh.
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(02-17-2024, 01:41 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: I'm very huge on "bring back the band" for next year already. While I think it could be a good idea to trade THJ and seconds and/or one first for a really solid upgrade, I am quite content with the 8-man of Luka-Kyrie-Green-Washington-Lively-Exum-Maxi-Gafford. To me, the biggest make-or-break for the 2024-25 season is a somewhat under-the-radar one - they must give OMax real minutes and genuinely develop him. He has the potential to be a huge part of the future, but if they don't develop him, they'll have screwed that pooch. As a matter of fact, a silver lining if they can't keep DJJ will be ***give those minutes to OMax,*** full stop.

One underconsidered reason why the Mavs should start stockpiling more assets is that whenever we move on from Kyrie (or he forces his way out, which at this point doesn't appear to be anytime soon), replacing him as the second star is going to be exorbitantly expensive. They need to have their eyes open for who that guy is already, tbqh.

Agree with your post except I'm not sure where they'll be able to find minutes for OMax this season.  PJ, Maxi and DJJ are all clearly better players than OMax and as we're fighting for playoff position, it will be difficult to find any minutes for him unless there are more injuries.  I'd rather have him play in G-league and work on his shooting.  

I'm hoping the eventual THJ replacement is Jaden Hardy.  He has improved to the point where he is less bad on defense than THJ.  Hardy will have to develop as a movement shooter.  If he can improve that, he'll be our clear THJ replacement.  We can then either use THJ as an expiring contract in a trade or simply let him expire after next season.  At that point, we'll need to re-sign Kyrie, Exum and Jaden Hardy himself.  We might need THJ's money to keep the rest of the team together.
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(02-17-2024, 02:33 PM)surfpuckmd Wrote: I'm hoping the eventual THJ replacement is Jaden Hardy.

I think this is where things are headed.
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(02-17-2024, 02:33 PM)surfpuckmd Wrote: Agree with your post except I'm not sure where they'll be able to find minutes for OMax this season.  PJ, Maxi and DJJ are all clearly better players than OMax and as we're fighting for playoff position, it will be difficult to find any minutes for him unless there are more injuries.  I'd rather have him play in G-league and work on his shooting.  

Agree completely. I was referring to 2024-25 - i.e., next season.
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(02-17-2024, 10:49 AM)surfpuckmd Wrote: I hope we make no more major trades for at least one year.  I'd rather let the roster develop together.  Any major change should be a new head coach depending on what we do in the playoffs.

I also don't think we really need to target a 3rd-best player.  Lively already is our 3rd-best player and will be only continue to improve.  

If we target a 4th-best player, it should be an elite defensive player who is decent offensively.  Those players are less expensive to trade for and have smaller contracts than offensive stars.  

My strong preference though is to wait a year and watch how Hardy, Green, PJ Washington and OMax develop.  We also need to see if Exum can return and play at the same level as before the plantar fasciitis.  Each of those players might be the solutions to our roster.  We just need to see which ones improve with experience.

This is as good a place as any to put something I was thinking about the other day...how do we compare to Denver.

Kyrie  - Murray
PJW   - Gordon
Green - KCP 

Luka/Lively - Jokic/MPJ

Denver's bench is fairly small with Jackson, Braun and Watson getting the most minutes and Nnaji/Jordan/Strawther being their main front court guys.  Compare that to Exum, THJ, DJJ, Maxi and Gafford.

I think we fairly easily win the bench contest.  I suspect most would hand them the advantage regarding Gordon/KCP over Green/PJW (though the similarities here are interesting).  Green probably won't win a DPOY award, but he's also not 31 (and KCP might not match Green's TS% or 3% for a series).  We can probably argue for days about Kyrie/Murray and the combo's involving Luka/Lively and Jokic/MPJ (since our stars play different positions, I combined them with the opposite at that position).

I think it is important to note that the comparison isn't really about Luka vs Jokic or Green vs KCP.  It is really about what the other team can do to neutralize the other.  Is Dallas better equipped to stop Jokic with Lively and Gafford and Maxi or is Denver better equipped to neutralize Luka with Gordon (and who?).  The cross matches matter too.  Green and KCP won't be guarding each other.  Green (or Exum or DJJ) will largely get Murray and KCP will largely get Kyrie.  Who will the other team target for switches (probably Kyrie and Murray) and do their teams have the schemes to protect the disadvantage gained in such a switch.

When you start to look at it as team against team rather than "PJW sucks and he isn't nearly as good as Gordon" type commentary, I start to feel we aren't obviously doomed against Denver.  If everyone was 100% healthy, continuity and experience might win out.  But, I think it is close enough that a bump or bruise here or there might determine a series between these two.

Looking at the rest of the top teams in the West, I'm much less worried about Minnesota and OKC.  We can vary our lineups more than either and mitigate their strengths.  I'd probably want to avoid LAC if given the choice.  I'm just not sure how we stop everything they can throw at us if they are fully healthy.  But they certainly have holes we could take advantage of.
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(02-17-2024, 03:27 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: This is as good a place as any to put something I was thinking about the other day...how do we compare to Denver.

Kyrie  - Murray
PJW   - Gordon
Green - KCP 

Luka/Lively - Jokic/MPJ

Denver's bench is fairly small with Jackson, Braun and Watson getting the most minutes and Nnaji/Jordan/Strawther being their main front court guys.  Compare that to Exum, THJ, DJJ, Maxi and Gafford.

I think we fairly easily win the bench contest.  I suspect most would hand them the advantage regarding Gordon/KCP over Green/PJW (though the similarities here are interesting).  Green probably won't win a DPOY award, but he's also not 31 (and KCP might not match Green's TS% or 3% for a series).  We can probably argue for days about Kyrie/Murray and the combo's involving Luka/Lively and Jokic/MPJ (since our stars play different positions, I combined them with the opposite at that position).

I think it is important to note that the comparison isn't really about Luka vs Jokic or Green vs KCP.  It is really about what the other team can do to neutralize the other.  Is Dallas better equipped to stop Jokic with Lively and Gafford and Maxi or is Denver better equipped to neutralize Luka with Gordon (and who?).  The cross matches matter too.  Green and KCP won't be guarding each other.  Green (or Exum or DJJ) will largely get Murray and KCP will largely get Kyrie.  Who will the other team target for switches (probably Kyrie and Murray) and do their teams have the schemes to protect the disadvantage gained in such a switch.

When you start to look at it as team against team rather than "PJW sucks and he isn't nearly as good as Gordon" type commentary, I start to feel we aren't obviously doomed against Denver.  If everyone was 100% healthy, continuity and experience might win out.  But, I think it is close enough that a bump or bruise here or there might determine a series between these two.

Looking at the rest of the top teams in the West, I'm much less worried about Minnesota and OKC.  We can vary our lineups more than either and mitigate their strengths.  I'd probably want to avoid LAC if given the choice.  I'm just not sure how we stop everything they can throw at us if they are fully healthy.  But they certainly have holes we could take advantage of.

I agree. An idealized version of the Clippers is still the scariest hurdle to jump, kind of like it has been for years. The good thing is that there is no telling what shape the clippers will be in when the time comes.
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(02-17-2024, 03:27 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: This is as good a place as any to put something I was thinking about the other day...how do we compare to Denver.

Kyrie  - Murray
PJW   - Gordon
Green - KCP 

Luka/Lively - Jokic/MPJ

Denver's bench is fairly small with Jackson, Braun and Watson getting the most minutes and Nnaji/Jordan/Strawther being their main front court guys.  Compare that to Exum, THJ, DJJ, Maxi and Gafford.

I think we fairly easily win the bench contest.  I suspect most would hand them the advantage regarding Gordon/KCP over Green/PJW (though the similarities here are interesting).  Green probably won't win a DPOY award, but he's also not 31 (and KCP might not match Green's TS% or 3% for a series).  We can probably argue for days about Kyrie/Murray and the combo's involving Luka/Lively and Jokic/MPJ (since our stars play different positions, I combined them with the opposite at that position).

I think it is important to note that the comparison isn't really about Luka vs Jokic or Green vs KCP.  It is really about what the other team can do to neutralize the other.  Is Dallas better equipped to stop Jokic with Lively and Gafford and Maxi or is Denver better equipped to neutralize Luka with Gordon (and who?).  The cross matches matter too.  Green and KCP won't be guarding each other.  Green (or Exum or DJJ) will largely get Murray and KCP will largely get Kyrie.  Who will the other team target for switches (probably Kyrie and Murray) and do their teams have the schemes to protect the disadvantage gained in such a switch.

When you start to look at it as team against team rather than "PJW sucks and he isn't nearly as good as Gordon" type commentary, I start to feel we aren't obviously doomed against Denver.  If everyone was 100% healthy, continuity and experience might win out.  But, I think it is close enough that a bump or bruise here or there might determine a series between these two.

Looking at the rest of the top teams in the West, I'm much less worried about Minnesota and OKC.  We can vary our lineups more than either and mitigate their strengths.  I'd probably want to avoid LAC if given the choice.  I'm just not sure how we stop everything they can throw at us if they are fully healthy.  But they certainly have holes we could take advantage of.

Like your thinking. My view is that Luka has to be the best player in the series vs. Denver for the Mavs to win. And that means he has to defend as well as offend. It’s a series I look forward to because I think he is that player. But he’ll have to be near top form, at altitude, with no chance to rest on the defensive side of the ball.
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(02-17-2024, 03:27 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: This is as good a place as any to put something I was thinking about the other day...how do we compare to Denver.

Kyrie  - Murray
PJW   - Gordon
Green - KCP 

Luka/Lively - Jokic/MPJ

Denver's bench is fairly small with Jackson, Braun and Watson getting the most minutes and Nnaji/Jordan/Strawther being their main front court guys.  Compare that to Exum, THJ, DJJ, Maxi and Gafford.

I think we fairly easily win the bench contest.  I suspect most would hand them the advantage regarding Gordon/KCP over Green/PJW (though the similarities here are interesting).  Green probably won't win a DPOY award, but he's also not 31 (and KCP might not match Green's TS% or 3% for a series).  We can probably argue for days about Kyrie/Murray and the combo's involving Luka/Lively and Jokic/MPJ (since our stars play different positions, I combined them with the opposite at that position).

I think it is important to note that the comparison isn't really about Luka vs Jokic or Green vs KCP.  It is really about what the other team can do to neutralize the other.  Is Dallas better equipped to stop Jokic with Lively and Gafford and Maxi or is Denver better equipped to neutralize Luka with Gordon (and who?).  The cross matches matter too.  Green and KCP won't be guarding each other.  Green (or Exum or DJJ) will largely get Murray and KCP will largely get Kyrie.  Who will the other team target for switches (probably Kyrie and Murray) and do their teams have the schemes to protect the disadvantage gained in such a switch.

When you start to look at it as team against team rather than "PJW sucks and he isn't nearly as good as Gordon" type commentary, I start to feel we aren't obviously doomed against Denver.  If everyone was 100% healthy, continuity and experience might win out.  But, I think it is close enough that a bump or bruise here or there might determine a series between these two.

Looking at the rest of the top teams in the West, I'm much less worried about Minnesota and OKC.  We can vary our lineups more than either and mitigate their strengths.  I'd probably want to avoid LAC if given the choice.  I'm just not sure how we stop everything they can throw at us if they are fully healthy.  But they certainly have holes we could take advantage of.

https://x.com/627zach/status/1758660730289860918?s=46&t=4w35gotNXtBJnqxbaL7e9w

Funny this is brought up now.

A long time Nuggets expert has been eyeing the Mavs and he's pretty scared of them. Obviously puts the Nuggets as a favored matchup but gives the Mavs a 45/55 shot and he has no clue what the Nuggets would do to slow down Luka. 



Obviously Aaron Gordon is a very very good defender. Not sure if that will hold up in a 7 game series though. If Kawhi couldn't slow down Luka not sure anyone can.
14x All-Star, 12x all-NBA, 1x MVP, 1x Finals MVP, 1 NBA Championship: Dirk Nowitzki, the man, the myth, the legend.
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(02-17-2024, 03:27 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: This is as good a place as any to put something I was thinking about the other day...how do we compare to Denver.

Kyrie  - Murray
PJW   - Gordon
Green - KCP 

Luka/Lively - Jokic/MPJ

Denver's bench is fairly small with Jackson, Braun and Watson getting the most minutes and Nnaji/Jordan/Strawther being their main front court guys.  Compare that to Exum, THJ, DJJ, Maxi and Gafford.

I think we fairly easily win the bench contest.  I suspect most would hand them the advantage regarding Gordon/KCP over Green/PJW (though the similarities here are interesting).  Green probably won't win a DPOY award, but he's also not 31 (and KCP might not match Green's TS% or 3% for a series).  We can probably argue for days about Kyrie/Murray and the combo's involving Luka/Lively and Jokic/MPJ (since our stars play different positions, I combined them with the opposite at that position).

I think it is important to note that the comparison isn't really about Luka vs Jokic or Green vs KCP.  It is really about what the other team can do to neutralize the other.  Is Dallas better equipped to stop Jokic with Lively and Gafford and Maxi or is Denver better equipped to neutralize Luka with Gordon (and who?).  The cross matches matter too.  Green and KCP won't be guarding each other.  Green (or Exum or DJJ) will largely get Murray and KCP will largely get Kyrie.  Who will the other team target for switches (probably Kyrie and Murray) and do their teams have the schemes to protect the disadvantage gained in such a switch.

When you start to look at it as team against team rather than "PJW sucks and he isn't nearly as good as Gordon" type commentary, I start to feel we aren't obviously doomed against Denver.  If everyone was 100% healthy, continuity and experience might win out.  But, I think it is close enough that a bump or bruise here or there might determine a series between these two.

Looking at the rest of the top teams in the West, I'm much less worried about Minnesota and OKC.  We can vary our lineups more than either and mitigate their strengths.  I'd probably want to avoid LAC if given the choice.  I'm just not sure how we stop everything they can throw at us if they are fully healthy.  But they certainly have holes we could take advantage of.

Personally I think kyrie is definitely better than Murray (when he is on the court). I also think Green/Exum match up with KCP just fine. It’s all about PJ. If he can play defense like he has these first three games and be average on offense then he can hold his own with Gordon. 

Honestly, I think PJ is the big wild card right now. In best case scenario he makes this team a contender. I was skeptical he had that kind of ceiling, but after seeing his defense here I think it’s possible
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(02-17-2024, 03:27 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: This is as good a place as any to put something I was thinking about the other day...how do we compare to Denver.

Kyrie  - Murray
PJW   - Gordon
Green - KCP 

Luka/Lively - Jokic/MPJ

Denver's bench is fairly small with Jackson, Braun and Watson getting the most minutes and Nnaji/Jordan/Strawther being their main front court guys.  Compare that to Exum, THJ, DJJ, Maxi and Gafford.

I think we fairly easily win the bench contest.  I suspect most would hand them the advantage regarding Gordon/KCP over Green/PJW (though the similarities here are interesting).  Green probably won't win a DPOY award, but he's also not 31 (and KCP might not match Green's TS% or 3% for a series).  We can probably argue for days about Kyrie/Murray and the combo's involving Luka/Lively and Jokic/MPJ (since our stars play different positions, I combined them with the opposite at that position).

I think it is important to note that the comparison isn't really about Luka vs Jokic or Green vs KCP.  It is really about what the other team can do to neutralize the other.  Is Dallas better equipped to stop Jokic with Lively and Gafford and Maxi or is Denver better equipped to neutralize Luka with Gordon (and who?).  The cross matches matter too.  Green and KCP won't be guarding each other.  Green (or Exum or DJJ) will largely get Murray and KCP will largely get Kyrie.  Who will the other team target for switches (probably Kyrie and Murray) and do their teams have the schemes to protect the disadvantage gained in such a switch.

When you start to look at it as team against team rather than "PJW sucks and he isn't nearly as good as Gordon" type commentary, I start to feel we aren't obviously doomed against Denver.  If everyone was 100% healthy, continuity and experience might win out.  But, I think it is close enough that a bump or bruise here or there might determine a series between these two.

Looking at the rest of the top teams in the West, I'm much less worried about Minnesota and OKC.  We can vary our lineups more than either and mitigate their strengths.  I'd probably want to avoid LAC if given the choice.  I'm just not sure how we stop everything they can throw at us if they are fully healthy.  But they certainly have holes we could take advantage of.

I can imagine us beating Denver in a playoff series even without them having a significant injury.  

In my vision, PJ flips a switch and plays Kawhi-level defense.   Others have suggested it's possible and I can see it.  

Luka outplays Joker in this vision.  Joker just can't keep up with our quicker pace.  The new Mavericks run and I can see Joker becoming frustrated and exhausted. 

Kyrie does Kyrie magical things all series too.   

The real key to the series in my vision though is Tim Hardaway Jr.  I am predicting to the chagrin of the rest of you that THJ will play a key role in any playoff upset we can manage-  especially if it is against the Nuggets.  We will need someone other than Luka to hit seven 3-pointers in a few games.  I think THJ can be that guy.  

Of course, THJ could also go 4 for 37 in a series and be a major reason we lose.  Thus are 3-point specialists.  

I look forward to the THJ apology thread during the playoffs.  That should be a very busy thread.
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Inner circle contenders:
Boston
Denver

LAC

If everything goes right contenders:
East:
Milwaukee
Cleveland
Miami
NYK
Philadelphia
Indiana

West:
OKC
Minnesota
Dallas
Phoenix
Lakers
GSW

At this point, i think these 15 teams are the current “contenders”. That list should be something like 8-10 teams by the playoffs. Higher than most years because of the wide open field. The West particularly will have more contenders because there’s no Boston in the west that’s clearly the best team.

So, breaking down only the west to see our chances of going to the finals.

Nuggets and Clippers are the best, but not by too much for others to overcome. An injury (which has happened every year) could totally knock out the Clippers.

Lakers and Warriors could knock themselves out of the mix and are no longer are real threat

The other west 3 contenders all have problems bigger than ours:

Suns do not have the required playoff defense to win 4 series

Thunder have no experience and their lack of size could be a problem against teams like us

Wolves players collectively have a history of choking . Their offense struggles. Gobert is a non-factor in the playoffs

Nuggets vs. Mavs west finals has a strong argument
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Fun exercise. OKC, Minny too young. Lakes, Warrs too old. Indy, NY lack the star power. I’d rank em like this:

West (1) Nugs, (2) Clips, (3) Mavs

East (1) Celts, (2) Bucks, (3) Cavs, with Sixers’ health a big fat TBD.
Pessimism doesn’t make you smart, just pessimistic.
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(02-17-2024, 10:49 AM)surfpuckmd Wrote: I hope we make no more major trades for at least one year.  I'd rather let the roster develop together.  Any major change should be a new head coach depending on what we do in the playoffs.

I also don't think we really need to target a 3rd-best player.  Lively already is our 3rd-best player and will be only continue to improve.  

If we target a 4th-best player, it should be an elite defensive player who is decent offensively.  Those players are less expensive to trade for and have smaller contracts than offensive stars.  

My strong preference though is to wait a year and watch how Hardy, Green, PJ Washington and OMax develop.  We also need to see if Exum can return and play at the same level as before the plantar fasciitis.  Each of those players might be the solutions to our roster.  We just need to see which ones improve with experience.

A third best player on this team doesn't have to be an offensive star, so not really what we need anyway.

While I'd be fine not making any major moves in the off season, if PJ in particular works out well, I legit think we are one high level defensive wing away from fighting for the 1 seed the following season and one of the clear favorites for the chip. IMO the only player on our roster with the attributes that really fits the ideal wing partner for PJ in the starting unit on a true contender is probably Omax (not saying others couldn't be good starters in that position), and dude is minimum 2 years away IMO, and that's assuming he puts it together, which is never a guarantee.

I'm happy to watch guys develop too, but if you are genuinely at a stage where you might be just 1 piece away, I think the temptation is far too great, and I'd be fine if they pulled the trigger if a guy with the right skillset became available. Given the position though, and corresponding value across the league, that type of player is likely not going to be particularly cheap. Like what would Herb Jones cost? Probably a lot, but that style and level of player could be the final piece for contention, and if the Mavs believe he is, I don't see how you don't pull the trigger even if you end up maybe overpaying for it.
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