Trade & FA 2023-24: OKC The Favorite For Nic Claxton Should He Leave BRK

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

If Spencer wants to comeback, I hope the Mavs tells him what his role is -- an alternate to Exum if Exum isn't available, not playing well, or the Mavs need a more aggressive scorer.
If SD is okay with that, then sign him up.

If not, I'd rather the Mavs go after Hayes.
He's a POA (A Mavs need) and also more of a PG (just like Exum).

Luka+Kyrie+Exum+Hardy+Hayes = that's 5 ballhandlers, 4 of them can play PG, all can play at SG.

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

What's worrisome with SD is that Kidd might favor him instead of Exum.

But if there is uncertainty with Exum's health, I just think a third ballhandler is needed.
Kyrie could miss games, Exum might again miss time after coming back.

I'm for SD or Hayes.

[dirkfansince1998]

If Spencer wants to comeback, I hope the Mavs tells him what his role is -- an alternate to Exum if Exum isn't available, not playing well, or the Mavs need a more aggressive scorer.
If SD is okay with that, then sign him up.

If not, I'd rather the Mavs go after Hayes.
He's a POA (A Mavs need) and also more of a PG (just like Exum).

Luka+Kyrie+Exum+Hardy+Hayes = that's 5 ballhandlers, 4 of them can play PG, all can play at SG.

It's not going to happen but I really like the idea that FGump mentioned. Non guaranteed multi year deal for a reclamation project (like Hayes) instead of a vet. With a chance to end up with more than just a rental for the last few regular season games and playoffs/play-in.

[Jmaciscool]

I'd like SD based on his familiarity with the Mavs and backing up two often injured players.

[mvossman]

Not trying to be contrarian but I would try to sign Dinwiddie AND Marcus Morris. Morris will probably wind up being a more impactful playoff presence than DJJ. 40% from 3 and has mid-range game which has value in the playoffs and he is a physical defender for the 5-15 minutes he would play. He has played in many high stakes playoff games. Either way I think DJJ feels the squeeze of the PJ/Gafford deals most. I also think we should probably forgo trying to re-sign DJJ this summer. ALL of those minutes (10-20 minutes per game) should go to Omax. Assuming we don’t trade for another wing this summer.

Morris is better from 3, but a complete statue on defense. DJJ is a better player in general right now, and a much better fit. Plus he is not an asshole.

[KillerLeft]

REALLY seems like Dallas can pay more, if they want…

https://x.com/ericpincus/status/1756040572647936459?s=61&t=Zmns3TEXDYnIJIXeN05-eQ

[Jmaciscool]

REALLY seems like Dallas can pay more, if they want…

https://x.com/ericpincus/status/1756040572647936459?s=61&t=Zmns3TEXDYnIJIXeN05-eQ

Yeah, I'm now really confused on how this works.

[BigDirk41]

I think Dinwiddie will have a bigger role than most are expecting if he signs here. He will also get lots of time with all the games Kyrie sits.

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He's the perfect insurance policy for Kyrie imo.

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And he can help reduce Luka's minutes some.

[The Jom]

Yeah so not sure they would be willing to cut anyone.

Cut Markieff to bring in Morris! Would be the funniest move ever!

[OBX Maverick]

I think Dinwiddie will have a bigger role than most are expecting if he signs here. He will also get lots of time with all the games Kyrie sits.

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He's the perfect insurance policy for Kyrie imo.

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And he can help reduce Luka's minutes some.

Yup…You know Kyrie will miss more games, and you know Luka will get a couple more nights off. Plus Dinwiddie will surely get some playing time on the elbows of the 1st/2nd and 3rd/4th quarters when Kidd wants to keep two playmakers in the backcourt.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I didn’t get to really opine on the trades yesterday as I was too busy after about 1:00.  I didn’t finish reading the board until early this morning and even then haven’t been able to write more than a few words here and there.  So, here goes…

All season I’ve been harping that you don’t bet a year of Kyrie’s prime on Maxi’s health and Lively’s ability to avoid foul trouble.  A little nick here or an early 3rd foul there and before you know it, you’ve given away a playoff game.  We aren’t good enough to do that.  I’ve presumed we would add a good backup center to share the position.  Once we saw the GWill experience past the first two weeks (and heard the rumors) I’ve also presumed we needed a starting PF to push some combination of Maxi/GWill/DJJ to the bench…or at least a 4/5 or 5/4 type to kill two birds with one stone.

One other thing I assumed was that we’d stay under the tax this season.  It is kind of amazing that we found a way to add two players AND stayed under the tax this season AND managed to end up about $7mm under the first apron next year (with 12 players and a presumed contract for a 2024 second rounder…the cheapest possible minimum).  The first apron may or may not be a barrier depending on whether we use some of the MLE now on a multi-year player (I like the Killian Hayes idea) and whether we use the TP-MLE or one of our TPE’s to bring in additional salary beyond a minimum or two on players 14 and 15 this summer.  The financial maneuvering while moving off of guys who weren’t helping and retaining our youngsters is pretty amazing.

People who like the deals tend to point to players out and players in and conclude we won the trade(s).  Right here, right now on the court…we did.  People who don’t like the trade mostly don’t like the pick cost (or want to make conclusions based on bad numbers achieved on bad teams…remember Dinwiddie in a Dallas uniform).  Many of the national folks have tended to lump in past sins with what we gave up Thursday and create kind of a macro-blunder scenario that combines all of our wheeling and dealing and concludes we gave up too much.  Both are probably right.  What they are doing is risky.  But, sitting on our hands and waiting is risky too.  If Luka leaves and we don’t control our drafts, we are screwed.  If we hold onto picks and don’t build the roster we are also screwed.  I applaud going for it and potentially being screwed more than I would have supported sitting on our hands and potentially being screwed.

I have to say, I admire the creativity this summer and Thursday.  The Bullock  deal converted a 2030 swap into FOUR 2nd rounders…and we still get to make a first round pick that year.  Here, we gave up a 2028 swap for the first needed to get Gafford (and still get to make a pick in 20289 and gave a 2027 lightly protected pick for the player we wanted and two more second rounders.  Nico/Lindsey seem to understand that fan bases want to see first round equity and hardly notice the outgoing seconds.  Note that I and others said if you want to make 2027 valuable it had to be lightly protected because it can’t be backed up by another first…exactly what they did.  In two years of drafting, Nico/Lindsey have found value all over the board.  As long as we have a pick…any pick…I’m OK if these guys are in charge.  So, the pick equity is risky, but could also be worthless if we stay good and the players we got should help with that for at least the next three years.

So now to the players…I like Gafford.  I wanted him when he was in Chicago.  He makes a lot for a backup center, but we need one of the best backups in the league at this stage of Lively’s development.  He is a mini-me clone of what Lively does and we basically die when Lively isn’t in (as I said in another post, without Lively or Powell in the game, our D drops 10 points).  I’m happy with this.  I’ve seen enough of him over the years that I’m not falling for the comparisons to every bad center we’ve ever had or even pursued.  Has he hunted blocks on a bad team?  Maybe.  Should his +/- be better?  Maybe.  Do I need him to be a star?  No.  I need him to erase some/all of the gap in effectiveness we have when Lively goes out.  I don’t need all 10 points of that gap.  7-8 will be just fine because we are that good when Lively plays.

I’ve also been fantasy trading for PJ for a long time.  Jack of all trades and master of none.  We complain a lot here that everyone is a specialist.  Well, we now have Green and PJ who aren’t great at anything (well Josh is pretty efficient on low volume), but who can do a little of everything.  Imagine doubling Luka now.  Lively, Josh and PJ are all FANTASTIC short roll players.  PJ can pass.  He can drive and finish.  He has the push shot in the lane.  He is night and day better than GWill in this situation.  We will kill teams who try it with that group in the game.  He’s a better rebounder than we’ve had at the position and has good length.  I think you look at a players body or work more than the “yeah, but he’s shooting only X% (on a really crappy team with no spacing) in (a few) games this season” thing that we hear a lot.  I really don’t know how you stop our starters.  There is a chance all five could average double figures (and THJ).  The mobility and skill compared to outgoing GWill is substantial.

PJ pushing Maxi and DJJ to the bench (with Gafford, THJ and Exum) puts those players in better positions to succeed more.  I like our bench.  We are in a much better position to hide THJ’s defensive failings now.  Are there better PF’s out there?  Absolutely.  Were they available for what we had to offer?  No.  Should we have waited…I don’t think so.  Did we pay too much?  Time will tell, but the cost was the cost and we didn’t give up the kids and at least know we won’t give up a top two if it all goes to crap.

I don’t think we will make a big trade this summer.  I think we will get to the second round and maybe beyond this season and largely run it back and hope for some internal improvement (and find the next GG Jackson in the late second round).  THJ and 2025 (the first or the second) at the TDL a year from now is a possibility.  We aren’t replacing Lively, Luka or Kyrie in the starting lineup and the bar to upgrade Green and PJ will likely be high enough that it isn’t easily jumped over.  I’m not saying we can’t upgrade those guys.  I’m saying the list of players who are substantially better than either is short and those types of players are very expensive.  If I have a disappointment, it is that it will be hard to develop Hardy and OMax with so many mouths to feed.  We have time for OMax, but decision time regarding Hardy is the same summer as decision time for THJ.

[KillerLeft]

I didn’t get to really opine on the trades yesterday as I was too busy after about 1:00.  I didn’t finish reading the board until early this morning and even then haven’t been able to write more than a few words here and there.  So, here goes…

All season I’ve been harping that you don’t bet a year of Kyrie’s prime on Maxi’s health and Lively’s ability to avoid foul trouble.  A little nick here or an early 3rd foul there and before you know it, you’ve given away a playoff game.  We aren’t good enough to do that.  I’ve presumed we would add a good backup center to share the position.  Once we saw the GWill experience past the first two weeks (and heard the rumors) I’ve also presumed we needed a starting PF to push some combination of Maxi/GWill/DJJ to the bench…or at least a 4/5 or 5/4 type to kill two birds with one stone.

One other thing I assumed was that we’d stay under the tax this season.  It is kind of amazing that we found a way to add two players AND stayed under the tax this season AND managed to end up about $7mm under the first apron next year (with 12 players and a presumed contract for a 2024 second rounder…the cheapest possible minimum).  The first apron may or may not be a barrier depending on whether we use some of the MLE now on a multi-year player (I like the Killian Hayes idea) and whether we use the TP-MLE or one of our TPE’s to bring in additional salary beyond a minimum or two on players 14 and 15 this summer.  The financial maneuvering while moving off of guys who weren’t helping and retaining our youngsters is pretty amazing.

People who like the deals tend to point to players out and players in and conclude we won the trade(s).  Right here, right now on the court…we did.  People who don’t like the trade mostly don’t like the pick cost (or want to make conclusions based on bad numbers achieved on bad teams…remember Dinwiddie in a Dallas uniform).  Many of the national folks have tended to lump in past sins with what we gave up Thursday and create kind of a macro-blunder scenario that combines all of our wheeling and dealing and concludes we gave up too much.  Both are probably right.  What they are doing is risky.  But, sitting on our hands and waiting is risky too.  If Luka leaves and we don’t control our drafts, we are screwed.  If we hold onto picks and don’t build the roster we are also screwed.  I applaud going for it and potentially being screwed more than I would have supported sitting on our hands and potentially being screwed.

I have to say, I admire the creativity this summer and Thursday.  The Bullock  deal converted a 2030 swap into FOUR 2nd rounders…and we still get to make a first round pick that year.  Here, we gave up a 2028 swap for the first needed to get Gafford (and still get to make a pick in 20289 and gave a 2027 lightly protected pick for the player we wanted and two more second rounders.  Nico/Lindsey seem to understand that fan bases want to see first round equity and hardly notice the outgoing seconds.  Note that I and others said if you want to make 2027 valuable it had to be lightly protected because it can’t be backed up by another first…exactly what they did.  In two years of drafting, Nico/Lindsey have found value all over the board.  As long as we have a pick…any pick…I’m OK if these guys are in charge.  So, the pick equity is risky, but could also be worthless if we stay good and the players we got should help with that for at least the next three years.

So now to the players…I like Gafford.  I wanted him when he was in Chicago.  He makes a lot for a backup center, but we need one of the best backups in the league at this stage of Lively’s development.  He is a mini-me clone of what Lively does and we basically die when Lively isn’t in (as I said in another post, without Lively or Powell in the game, our D drops 10 points).  I’m happy with this.  I’ve seen enough of him over the years that I’m not falling for the comparisons to every bad center we’ve ever had or even pursued.  Has he hunted blocks on a bad team?  Maybe.  Should his +/- be better?  Maybe.  Do I need him to be a star?  No.  I need him to erase some/all of the gap in effectiveness we have when Lively goes out.  I don’t need all 10 points of that gap.  7-8 will be just fine because we are that good when Lively plays.

I’ve also been fantasy trading for PJ for a long time.  Jack of all trades and master of none.  We complain a lot here that everyone is a specialist.  Well, we now have Green and PJ who aren’t great at anything (well Josh is pretty efficient on low volume), but who can do a little of everything.  Imagine doubling Luka now.  Lively, Josh and PJ are all FANTASTIC short roll players.  PJ can pass.  He can drive and finish.  He has the push shot in the lane.  He is night and day better than GWill in this situation.  We will kill teams who try it with that group in the game.  He’s a better rebounder than we’ve had at the position and has good length.  I think you look at a players body or work more than the “yeah, but he’s shooting only X% (on a really crappy team with no spacing) in (a few) games this season” thing that we hear a lot.  I really don’t know how you stop our starters.  There is a chance all five could average double figures (and THJ).  The mobility and skill compared to outgoing GWill is substantial.

PJ pushing Maxi and DJJ to the bench (with Gafford, THJ and Exum) puts those players in better positions to succeed more.  I like our bench.  We are in a much better position to hide THJ’s defensive failings now.  Are there better PF’s out there?  Absolutely.  Were they available for what we had to offer?  No.  Should we have waited…I don’t think so.  Did we pay too much?  Time will tell, but the cost was the cost and we didn’t give up the kids and at least know we won’t give up a top two if it all goes to crap.

I don’t think we will make a big trade this summer.  I think we will get to the second round and maybe beyond this season and largely run it back and hope for some internal improvement (and find the next GG Jackson in the late second round).  THJ and 2025 (the first or the second) at the TDL a year from now is a possibility.  We aren’t replacing Lively, Luka or Kyrie in the starting lineup and the bar to upgrade Green and PJ will likely be high enough that it isn’t easily jumped over.  I’m not saying we can’t upgrade those guys.  I’m saying the list of players who are substantially better than either is short and those types of players are very expensive.  If I have a disappointment, it is that it will be hard to develop Hardy and OMax with so many mouths to feed.  We have time for OMax, but decision time regarding Hardy is the same summer as decision time for THJ.

Outstanding. I feel much better.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Yeah, I'm now really confused on how this works.

The set off when there is a waiver is only for the new salary up to the prorated remaining Minimum contract cut in half.  So, if the remaining prorated minimum was $700k and a team signed a player for $4mm, then the set off is $350k (half of the remaining prorated minimum) and the player makes EXTRA money.

Dallas has $4.9mm of the MLE left and LA has $1.9mm.  These amounts are cut down by proration as Toronto only has 36% of its season left.  In my example above, if LA give SD the entire exception, the press will say he got $1.9mm.  But, that is annualized.  He really got 36% of that and the first $350k goes to Toronto and the rest goes to SD.

[OBX Maverick]

Nice summary Dan! I agree with a lot of what you said.

And that was certainly an OPINE!!!!

[KillerLeft]

The set off when there is a waiver is only for the new salary up to the prorated remaining Minimum contract cut in half.  So, if the remaining prorated minimum was $700k and a team signed a player for $4mm, then the set off is $350k (half of the remaining prorated minimum) and the player makes EXTRA money.

Dallas has $4.9mm of the MLE left and LA has $1.9mm.  These amounts are cut down by proration as Toronto only has 36% of its season left.  In my example above, if LA give SD the entire exception, the press will say he got $1.9mm.  But, that is annualized.  He really got 36% of that and the first $350k goes to Toronto and the rest goes to SD.

So Dallas CAN offer Dinwiddie more money if they so wish, it’s just that a portion of the extra money will go to Toronto, right?

I suppose we have no idea whether or not they want him badly enough to offer that much, but we should see soon.

[SleepingHero]

What's worrisome with SD is that Kidd might favor him instead of Exum.

But if there is uncertainty with Exum's health, I just think a third ballhandler is needed.
Kyrie could miss games, Exum might again miss time after coming back.

I'm for SD or Hayes.

To be fair, Spencer Dinwiddie of 2022/23 is a superior version of Exum, with less defense but much more offensive creation.

I don't see why we couldn't play them together, as Exum's game is fluid enough to be relegated to a spot up shooter with occasional creation.

In fact a Dinwiddie/Exum/THJ bench makes sense from a lot of perspectives with how good Exum and Dinwiddie are at setting up guys. Add in Maxi and Gafford and the defense shouldn't be too bad either with 3/5 guys being good to great.

[MFFL]

Nico/Lindsey seem to understand that fan bases want to see first round equity and hardly notice the outgoing seconds. 

This is really important for fans of bad teams. The team can sell them on hope for the future.

[Dundalis]

I don't hate PJ Washington.  I just hate the trade.  We gave up our best available asset for him.  If that was the market price for a player like PJ Washington, I think we should have waited.  As many have said before me, we would have had more assets available this coming summer and could have afforded a better player who came available by combining those.  I really like the Gafford trade and I think he will make a big difference to our team.  I think our smaller 4s like DJJ and Grant Williams would have looked better next to another hot-blocking, rebounding big.  I don't see why we needed a desperation trade for PJ Washington.

As to PJ, he's only 25 but he's actually become worse with age.  His 3-point percentage has declined 4 straight years.  His defensive metrics on LEBRON and DPM are all negative.   There may be some talent there to reclamate.  Is Jason Kidd the coach to inspire PJ Washington to actually practice shooting and playing hard on defense? 

I expressed a lot of concerns when we traded the 2030 swap rights for Grant Williams.  I was fine with the Grant Williams contract.  I just couldn't believe we gave up the 2030 swap for him.  We gave up valuable asset for a guy who Boston wasn't going to re-sign anyway.  7 months later, Grant Williams became a negative contract.  Apparently, part of the function of the 2027 1st was to get off that bad contract.  There's a real possibility that the PJ Washington contract will also be considered a bad contract in a year.  

We'll all get to watch PJ play here over the rest of the season.  I hope he plays well and I'm wrong.  I'll acknowledge if I was.  I think there's real chance that plays no better than Grant Williams.  If his 3-point shot stays at 32.4%, then he will be a huge problem for our offense.  

If his DPM stays at -1.0, then he'll be another poor defender on the Mavs.  

We spent a lot in order to get a guy who has been bad this season.  So bad that he's backup on a team on pace to win only 16 games.  There should be more concern on this board about this trade.

Fair enough, but I just don't think saying we gave up our best asset on an asset poor team is saying much. Like if a truly desirable player becomes available, are we  really gonna clutch at our single FRP like some pauper with a penny, when other orgs that are already better than us and have FRP falling out of their pockets that they will want to giveaway, are competing? I'm just not sure how valuable what we gave up really is, given what the competition for any truly desirable players will be in the short term. I think it's debatable. I don't think there is a player the team could have acquired in the off season prior to these trades that it can no longer pull off. 

It is 100% the teams fault that the org is so asset deficient, I'm certainly not absolving them of any blame there. Cuban's careless attitude towards draft picks over the years has always pissed me off. But the situation currently is what it is, and that's what the FO has to move forward with. Also the players we brought in will have value, especially if they get playoff experience, even if they don't absolutely light the world on fire, because that's how teams seem to value players, with Grant Williams the literal perfect example of this.

I think the Grant Williams misevaluation makes logical sense, because players who put up even pedestrian numbers on winning teams, tend to have overestimated value, even well above players with better numbers on losing teams. A primary reason for people talking up the Grant Williams acquisition all over the media had nothing to do with his individual skillset, but was simply that he has a lot of playoff experience. That was repeated over and over. The fact of the matter is he has never had any real  offensive skill outside spot up shooting, and has always been a bad, undersized athlete, who was just wide and managed to put some good defensive performances in against some elite players, but with the context that he was surrounded by excellent defenders when doing so. PJ might not work out, but he literally has none of those limitations IMO. He's not an above the rim athlete, but he's at least solid overall for his position while having a well above avg wingspan, also having a three level scorer offensive skillset that he has so far had no real no consistency with. I think Dinwiddies situation is still a prominent example to me of what can happen moving from a bad situation to a good one. How do you explain the difference between his performances with Dallas vs other teams? Like it might as well be a different player. Even THJ with Dallas vs other teams is a significant difference. These are two players who always had somewhat diverse offensive skillsets that struggled to make it work with any consistency on bad teams, which is some context they share with PJ vs other limited spot up shooter only type acquisitions that have come to Dallas.

It's not remotely a great trade, but I think this team has done the lets wait for the perfect deal to come along (Harrison Barnes trade exception), and had it simply not happen. Also teams with far better assets than us were more likely to not act this trade deadline, than they will be in the off season due to likely wanting to assess where some of their players are at the rest of the season. I think if there even is a deficiency on our asset status post trade (assets lost vs the value of PJ and Gafford), that deficiency is likely worth the risk of getting Gafford and taking the risk on PJ.

You're not wrong but I'm not either.  It simply depends on your perspective.  If you spend 40k to buy a 4runner but then a year later, you trade it and 40k in cash for a Range Rover, you have spent 80k ultimately to obtain the Range Rover.  Minus the utility of driving that 4runner for a year which you could estimate.

Your way of looking at it is also correct.  You're just focusing on the immediate deal.  

It is possible that the Mavericks were sick of Grant Williams, recognized their mistake and wanted to desperately get rid of him even though we just paid a 2030 pick swap to obtain him.  

I think that's really concerning though.  We have done this repeatedly over the past 15 years.  We're not only bad at talent evaluation but we turn on our players very easily.  There's something pathologic there.  I think Cuban is the biggest part of it but Kidd and even Luka seem to contribute as well.  We're like a guy who has been divorced 11 times.  After a while, that guy needs to understand that he's the problem.  

Just in the past year we've turned on Christian Wood, JaVale McGee and Grant Williams.  Other good teams don't do this.  

The biggest issue is just the price we paid for PJ Washington.  It's like we traded the 4Runner for a Toyota Highlander with similar mileage.  Yet we also included 40k in the deal.  The other guy had a really good day.

I think you are leaving out context when talking about players that have been turned on. Good teams don't do that, because they don't put those players in key positions to be relied on by the team to perform. Therefore when they don't perform, there is no rush to push them out the door, not because they wouldn't be perfectly happy to, but because their role on the team doesn't hurt the teams outcomes that much. We get these players in, put them in key roles and expect them to perform to those expectations. Then when they don't, we are in trouble, because their performances are heavily tied to the outcomes of the team. Being more inclined to quickly ship them out makes absolute logical sense given these scenario's, as we need to find someone who can fill these key roles on the team pretty quickly. So while you can absolutely put the blame on the FO for picking these players up and putting them in key roles in the first place, I think it's a bit over the top to ascribe any pathology or mal intent around the team shipping out under performing players quicker than other teams. The context with which they were shipped out makes sense to me, even if the initial decisions to bring them in the first place were obviously poor ones.

[Mavs03]

I would love for Dallas to sign Dinwiddie, but it's certainly not a done deal. He's attending the Pelicans-Lakers game today. Looks like it's between Dallas and the Lakers

[SleepingHero]

I didn’t get to really opine on the trades yesterday as I was too busy after about 1:00.  I didn’t finish reading the board until early this morning and even then haven’t been able to write more than a few words here and there.  So, here goes…

All season I’ve been harping that you don’t bet a year of Kyrie’s prime on Maxi’s health and Lively’s ability to avoid foul trouble.  A little nick here or an early 3rd foul there and before you know it, you’ve given away a playoff game.  We aren’t good enough to do that.  I’ve presumed we would add a good backup center to share the position.  Once we saw the GWill experience past the first two weeks (and heard the rumors) I’ve also presumed we needed a starting PF to push some combination of Maxi/GWill/DJJ to the bench…or at least a 4/5 or 5/4 type to kill two birds with one stone.

One other thing I assumed was that we’d stay under the tax this season.  It is kind of amazing that we found a way to add two players AND stayed under the tax this season AND managed to end up about $7mm under the first apron next year (with 12 players and a presumed contract for a 2024 second rounder…the cheapest possible minimum).  The first apron may or may not be a barrier depending on whether we use some of the MLE now on a multi-year player (I like the Killian Hayes idea) and whether we use the TP-MLE or one of our TPE’s to bring in additional salary beyond a minimum or two on players 14 and 15 this summer.  The financial maneuvering while moving off of guys who weren’t helping and retaining our youngsters is pretty amazing.

People who like the deals tend to point to players out and players in and conclude we won the trade(s).  Right here, right now on the court…we did.  People who don’t like the trade mostly don’t like the pick cost (or want to make conclusions based on bad numbers achieved on bad teams…remember Dinwiddie in a Dallas uniform).  Many of the national folks have tended to lump in past sins with what we gave up Thursday and create kind of a macro-blunder scenario that combines all of our wheeling and dealing and concludes we gave up too much.  Both are probably right.  What they are doing is risky.  But, sitting on our hands and waiting is risky too.  If Luka leaves and we don’t control our drafts, we are screwed.  If we hold onto picks and don’t build the roster we are also screwed.  I applaud going for it and potentially being screwed more than I would have supported sitting on our hands and potentially being screwed.

I have to say, I admire the creativity this summer and Thursday.  The Bullock  deal converted a 2030 swap into FOUR 2nd rounders…and we still get to make a first round pick that year.  Here, we gave up a 2028 swap for the first needed to get Gafford (and still get to make a pick in 20289 and gave a 2027 lightly protected pick for the player we wanted and two more second rounders.  Nico/Lindsey seem to understand that fan bases want to see first round equity and hardly notice the outgoing seconds.  Note that I and others said if you want to make 2027 valuable it had to be lightly protected because it can’t be backed up by another first…exactly what they did.  In two years of drafting, Nico/Lindsey have found value all over the board.  As long as we have a pick…any pick…I’m OK if these guys are in charge.  So, the pick equity is risky, but could also be worthless if we stay good and the players we got should help with that for at least the next three years.

So now to the players…I like Gafford.  I wanted him when he was in Chicago.  He makes a lot for a backup center, but we need one of the best backups in the league at this stage of Lively’s development.  He is a mini-me clone of what Lively does and we basically die when Lively isn’t in (as I said in another post, without Lively or Powell in the game, our D drops 10 points).  I’m happy with this.  I’ve seen enough of him over the years that I’m not falling for the comparisons to every bad center we’ve ever had or even pursued.  Has he hunted blocks on a bad team?  Maybe.  Should his +/- be better?  Maybe.  Do I need him to be a star?  No.  I need him to erase some/all of the gap in effectiveness we have when Lively goes out.  I don’t need all 10 points of that gap.  7-8 will be just fine because we are that good when Lively plays.

I’ve also been fantasy trading for PJ for a long time.  Jack of all trades and master of none.  We complain a lot here that everyone is a specialist.  Well, we now have Green and PJ who aren’t great at anything (well Josh is pretty efficient on low volume), but who can do a little of everything.  Imagine doubling Luka now.  Lively, Josh and PJ are all FANTASTIC short roll players.  PJ can pass.  He can drive and finish.  He has the push shot in the lane.  He is night and day better than GWill in this situation.  We will kill teams who try it with that group in the game.  He’s a better rebounder than we’ve had at the position and has good length.  I think you look at a players body or work more than the “yeah, but he’s shooting only X% (on a really crappy team with no spacing) in (a few) games this season” thing that we hear a lot.  I really don’t know how you stop our starters.  There is a chance all five could average double figures (and THJ).  The mobility and skill compared to outgoing GWill is substantial.

PJ pushing Maxi and DJJ to the bench (with Gafford, THJ and Exum) puts those players in better positions to succeed more.  I like our bench.  We are in a much better position to hide THJ’s defensive failings now.  Are there better PF’s out there?  Absolutely.  Were they available for what we had to offer?  No.  Should we have waited…I don’t think so.  Did we pay too much?  Time will tell, but the cost was the cost and we didn’t give up the kids and at least know we won’t give up a top two if it all goes to crap.

I don’t think we will make a big trade this summer.  I think we will get to the second round and maybe beyond this season and largely run it back and hope for some internal improvement (and find the next GG Jackson in the late second round).  THJ and 2025 (the first or the second) at the TDL a year from now is a possibility.  We aren’t replacing Lively, Luka or Kyrie in the starting lineup and the bar to upgrade Green and PJ will likely be high enough that it isn’t easily jumped over.  I’m not saying we can’t upgrade those guys.  I’m saying the list of players who are substantially better than either is short and those types of players are very expensive.  If I have a disappointment, it is that it will be hard to develop Hardy and OMax with so many mouths to feed.  We have time for OMax, but decision time regarding Hardy is the same summer as decision time for THJ.

Greatness.