Trade & FA 2023-24: NOP Will Not Give Ingram an Extension

[Mavs2021]

PJ is trolling Mavs fans

https://twitter.com/nolanc_45/status/169...97/photo/1

Not trolling just living there. One could say it might be an adrandltage in negotiations, but the whiny Mavs justlius do not care about playing that card to get young future All-Stars.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

In what universe is PJ Washington a below average defender?  There are reasonable fit concerns, but lack of defense isn't one of them.

There are clearly issues with Wood beyond his production on the court, so I don't know why he keeps being brought up.  That ship has sailed.

In what universe is he an above average starting PF defender?  Above average would be 1-10, average 11-20, and below average is 21-30.  I have him around 24.  You'd rate him in the top 10?

Fit is a huge problem.  G.Williams is undersized at 6'-6" 236lbs.  PJ is Luka's size, exactly, 6'-7 230lbs.  We're going to start a frontcourt of 6'-7", 6'-6", and 6'-7"?  Who is going to defend the C?

Wood isn't an option, but should be a measuring stick.  Why invest more assets (after a FRP for Wood) for a lesser player?

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

In what universe is he an above average starting PF defender?  Above average would be 1-10, average 11-20, and below average is 21-30.  I have him around 24.  You'd rate him in the top 10?

Fit is a huge problem.  G.Williams is undersized at 6'-6" 236lbs.  PJ is Luka's size, exactly, 6'-7 230lbs.  We're going to start a frontcourt of 6'-7", 6'-6", and 6'-7"?  Who is going to defend the C?

Wood isn't an option, but should be a measuring stick.  Why invest more assets (after a FRP for Wood) for a lesser player?

By this logic the league could have 30 just awesome forward defenders and you'd dismiss 10 of them for really no reason other than that's how many teams there are.

PJ Washington is a great defender.

[omahen]

PJ Washington is a great defender.

Based on what?

I like him, but calling him a great defender is a huge stretch, imho. Charlotte defense was bad with him and got better when he was not playing. I think he is average at best

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Based on what?

I like him, but calling him a great defender is a huge stretch, imho. Charlotte defense was bad with him and got better when he was not playing. I think he is average at best

Just from watching him.  The dude was the only good defender on a terrible defensive team and it stood out when you'd watch the hornets.  Mark Williams looks like he'll be a good one eventually but PJ was certainly the only real defender on that team.

I'm not interested in him on the Mavs at this point now that GWill is here.  Most of my post was simply to point out that saying "I have him as the 24th best power forward therefore he is bad" is incredibly flawed logic.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

https://twitter.com/iohandles/status/1552745255975456768?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1552745255975456768%7Ctwgr%5E995f3c65eee470e8b5668f0336f8dd7b688a7500%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.si.com%2Fnba%2Fhornets%2Fnews%2Fpj-is-for-charlotte-long-term-success

The dude shows a ton of defensive versatility which was kind of the theme of our offseason, just look at how many different types of players he's asked to guard.  He makes a ton of sense for what we want to build as a defensive unit but in all honesty it feels like we've done enough in the "big wing" area between GWill OMax and DJJ so it's kind of a moot point.

[mvossman]

In what universe is he an above average starting PF defender?  Above average would be 1-10, average 11-20, and below average is 21-30.  I have him around 24.  You'd rate him in the top 10?

What is your 24th ranking based on?  Its hard to quantify how valuable a guy that can actually guard all 5 positions is.  Every scouting report you will find and the best advanced stats all say he is a better than average defender.

[surfpuckmd]

What is your 24th ranking based on?  Its hard to quantify how valuable a guy that can actually guard all 5 positions is.  Every scouting report you will find and the best advanced stats all say he is a better than average defender.

Dunks and threes has him as + 0.5 on defense but -0.8 overall.  RAPTOR has him as -1.3 on defense and -3.2 overall.  I don’t doubt there are some other advanced stats indicating he’s an above-average defender but I haven’t seen them.  I don’t watch Charlotte games unless they’re playing the Mavs or the Pelicans so I can’t claim any direct knowledge of watching much of his defense.  I don’t think he’s a good player overall though and I’m glad we have Grant Williams and Derrick Jones Jr. Instead.  Especially for the numbers mentioned.

[The Jom]

https://twitter.com/iohandles/status/1552745255975456768?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1552745255975456768%7Ctwgr%5E995f3c65eee470e8b5668f0336f8dd7b688a7500%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.si.com%2Fnba%2Fhornets%2Fnews%2Fpj-is-for-charlotte-long-term-success

The dude shows a ton of defensive versatility which was kind of the theme of our offseason, just look at how many different types of players he's asked to guard.  He makes a ton of sense for what we want to build as a defensive unit but in all honesty it feels like we've done enough in the "big wing" area between GWill OMax and DJJ so it's kind of a moot point.

Sure looks like a center to me. This is the 20s. Basketball has changed.

[mvossman]

Dunks and threes has him as + 0.5 on defense but -0.8 overall.  RAPTOR has him as -1.3 on defense and -3.2 overall.  I don’t doubt there are some other advanced stats indicating he’s an above-average defender but I haven’t seen them.  I don’t watch Charlotte games unless they’re playing the Mavs or the Pelicans so I can’t claim any direct knowledge of watching much of his defense.  I don’t think he’s a good player overall though and I’m glad we have Grant Williams and Derrick Jones Jr. Instead.  Especially for the numbers mentioned.

The best advanced stats are dunks and 3s, Darko and then below those, LEBRON.  RAPTOR is farther down the list.  When looking at defense in particular, its good to get as much sample as possible.  He has been better than average every year in all three of those stats. That is uncommon.  I realize its not way above average, but it has been very consistent.  I will also say that although they try to account for this, defensive metrics tend to take a bit of a hit for players on bad teams.  

I realize this is kind of pointless as there would be little reason to spend assets on PJ now, but I think you would be hard pressed to find anybody in NBA circles suggesting that PJ is a below average defender.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

By this logic the league could have 30 just awesome forward defenders and you'd dismiss 10 of them for really no reason other than that's how many teams there are.

PJ Washington is a great defender.

Wow.  That's a bit histrionic.  GREAT?!?!  Does everyone get a "GREAT" defensive designation like a participation trophy?

Words have meaning.  30th out of 30 is not average; it's below average.  15th is average.  So yes, the 24th player may be a stud defender, but they are below average.

Where would you rank him?  Higher than 24th?

You already stated he isn't a good fit for us, so we're just debating something meaningless for Mavs fans?

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

What is your 24th ranking based on?  Its hard to quantify how valuable a guy that can actually guard all 5 positions is.  Every scouting report you will find and the best advanced stats all say he is a better than average defender.

What's your ranking? Let me know and we'll compare our measure.

Are you saying he's a top 20 (but not top 10) starting PF defensively?  If so, that's average.  21st+ is below average.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

https://twitter.com/iohandles/status/1552745255975456768?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1552745255975456768%7Ctwgr%5E995f3c65eee470e8b5668f0336f8dd7b688a7500%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.si.com%2Fnba%2Fhornets%2Fnews%2Fpj-is-for-charlotte-long-term-success

The dude shows a ton of defensive versatility which was kind of the theme of our offseason, just look at how many different types of players he's asked to guard.  He makes a ton of sense for what we want to build as a defensive unit but in all honesty it feels like we've done enough in the "big wing" area between GWill OMax and DJJ so it's kind of a moot point.

A highlight reel?  Well, there's some solid proof, lol.

Steals and blocks make highlight reels.  Look at this?  Luka should be DPOTY...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvzYiO6mFYg

[mvossman]

What's your ranking? Let me know and we'll compare our measure.

Are you saying he's a top 20 (but not top 10) starting PF defensively?  If so, that's average.  21st+ is below average.

See above.  I pulled it from EPM, DPM and LEBRON, which are considered the best comprehensive advanced stats we have access to.  He is a positive on defense in all of those for every season he played.  

One clarification to make, being a positive does not mean average NBA player, it means average NBA minutes which are very different.  EPM does a good job pointing this out.  He is a little better than average defensively for NBA minutes, but that puts him in the 70 percentile of NBA players.  As I mentioned above, his numbers are not huge, but are consistently good across all of those indicators and across all of his seasons.  That is a very big sample.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

See above.  I pulled it from EPM, DPM and LEBRON, which are considered the best comprehensive advanced stats we have access to.  He is a positive on defense in all of those for every season he played.  

One clarification to make, being a positive does not mean average NBA player, it means average NBA minutes which are very different.  EPM does a good job pointing this out.  He is a little better than average defensively for NBA minutes, but that puts him in the 70 percentile of NBA players.  As I mentioned above, his numbers are not huge, but are consistently good across all of those indicators and across all of his seasons.  That is a very big sample.

No, what would you say his ranking is, 1-30, as a starting PF?

[mvossman]

No, what would you say his ranking is, 1-30?

I think positional ranking is silly, especially in this age of positionless basketball and for a player who can play multiple positions.  This is a strange hill to die on.  Go find any scouting report on him and you are going to read the same thing.  Versatile, good defender.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I think positional ranking is silly, especially in this age of positionless basketball and for a player who can play multiple positions.  This is a strange hill to die on.  Go find any scouting report on him and you are going to read the same thing.  Versatile, good defender.

Then don't throw rocks when I say he's 24th.  It's easy to deconstruct someone's point when you refuse to be nailed down on your own.

This wasn't a theoretical discussion.  It is PJ on the Mavs.  First of all, we need a starting C, and as I've established PJ at Luka's size isn't playing C for us.  Above and beyond that, ranking him among other starting PFs (which will have the highest defensive numbers compared to the other 4 positions) is the only way to look at his defensive worth at his position.

Defense - At best, average for a starting PF
Rebounding - Terrible for a starting PF
Outside Shooting - Terrible, especially for the volume.  Lots of missed long shots (which should improve his rebounding, lol).

There is nothing exceptional about PJ.  As already stated, the player we're letting walk (and paid a FRP for) is a better player and fit.  So why are we getting excited because he lists Dallas as home?  I just don't get the irrational exuberance.

[michaeltex]

Ya if the deal is Green + 27 then I'm not interested.

I agree with this. 

I know it's the summer doldrums, hot and dry with no relief in sight and only dribbles of news to work with, but the trade proposals where we are sending out Holmes, Wood, Green, etc. with an attached 27 FRP all seem like we are bidding against ourselves. There might be a September deal on the back burner, but I'd like to at least see the team through a few practices to get a feel for the potential chemistry. 

I don't know if Holmes is really going downhill or if he's better than Capella at this point but if he's motivated, and coachable, there is a chance to build something without further depleting assets. Help sometimes comes unexpectedly. Who knew DP was the gem of the Rondo trade or that THJ was the best contributor of the KP trade? Right now a lot of the trade suggestions feel like swapping used cars, you never know what's really working (or not) until it's too late.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

A highlight reel?  Well, there's some solid proof, lol.

Steals and blocks make highlight reels.  Look at this?  Luka should be DPOTY...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvzYiO6mFYg

Bud, you just sent over one play.

The whole point of that clip was simply to show the different of types of players he's asked to guard.

Also, thinks for confirming my point about your ranking system being insanely flawed by saying you can have a stud defender classified as below average, you see the common sense issues with that in regards to this discussion?

I really can't handle the noise anymore for you so I'm just going to go ahead and block you.  Are we sure this guy isn't just dynamicalVoid under a different username?

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I agree with this. 

I know it's the summer doldrums, hot and dry with no relief in sight and only dribbles of news to work with, but the trade proposals where we are sending out Holmes, Wood, Green, etc. with an attached 27 FRP all seem like we are bidding against ourselves. There might be a September deal on the back burner, but I'd like to at least see the team through a few practices to get a feel for the potential chemistry. 

I don't know if Holmes is really going downhill or if he's better than Capella at this point but if he's motivated, and coachable, there is a chance to build something without further depleting assets. Help sometimes comes unexpectedly. Who knew DP was the gem of the Rondo trade or that THJ was the best contributor of the KP trade? Right now a lot of the trade suggestions feel like swapping used cars, you never know what's really working (or not) until it's too late.

Well, I think by going with historical cost Holmes is worth a negative FRP (we got OMax by taking on Holmes).  Any inclusion of Holmes in a trade proposal would have to include a FRP just to equal out his negative worth.