Trade & FA 2023-24: Paul George to Test Free Agency After No Contract Extension

[Jmaciscool]

So you are saying we´ll trade a 1st for Washington?

If we had a top 25 protected 1st then sure! 

[RDB]

I wasn't triggered by your comments so much as they provided a useful opportunity to say something that has been on my mind.  

My biggest issue with Bagley from the beginning is matter of fit.  He has the same syndrome as Powell.  He is a 5 on offense, but a 4 on defense.  If he manages to become an average defender, it will very likely be at the 4.  Its hard to see him ever becoming an average defensive center with his limited rim protection.  On the other end, I am of belief that you are hamstringing yourself offensively with two bigs on the floor that can't shoot.  That means Bagley needs to play with a floor spacing, rim protecting center.  Those are rare (we happen to have one, but he struggles to stay on the court).  I don't think he will ever be good enough to warrant building a roster around him, and otherwise his fit will be sub optimal even if he reaches best case.

The problem is you tried to “share something on your mind” by adding an exaggeration while missing the point I was trying to make.

I agree Bagley is not a 5 on defense.  I also agree that he hasn’t proven himself to be a stretch big.  He shot ~40% on 3’s in his one college year but has only flashed in the pro’s (season high ~35%).  However, IMO his problem is not on the offensive end.

I also agree with KillerLeft that Bagley (+ his dad) may be his own worst enemy which I suggested.  I don’t know to what degree ego may be a limiting factor currently but I do understand that playing for Sac could be frustrating.

You seem to feel like I am suggesting that the Bagley of today is a player to build around or even a starter on a playoff capable team today…I am not.  What I am suggesting is that if he is willing, there may be something worth developing.  Bagley was drafted primarily for his offense, measurables, and projections.  If it is true that he was still lacking basic defensive fundamentals, the NBA is probably not the best place to learn those when you are a #2 pick.

I think Bagley is a buy low guy for a team that has the $ room, willingness, and patience to develop him properly.  Is he willing to swallow his pride to do that?  I’m not sure but I bet his investor advisor hopes so.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

This board complained about THJ's defense until recently. He's now a descent defender? Nope. #fakenews. I have THJ ranked #103 in defense for guards. Yes, Hardy was terrible in D last year, but let's not make THJ Jrue Holiday.

[RDB]

He’s a low IQ player which is why he wouldn’t work here and wouldn’t get minutes under Jason Kidd.  

Agree he wouldn’t work here unless willing to move down the bench…I said not the Mav’s.

I don’t believe he is a low IQ player.  I feel he gets that label by some mostly from what you later said.  He looks lost on defense.  Add in lapses in attention to details.

He’s a poor passer and screener.

Meh…I believe he is a lazy screener.

Poor passer - I don’t really have an opinion.  I haven’t noticed an issue with poor passing decisions and his TOV doesn’t suggest there’s a big problem.  He doesn’t have great assist #’s but I don’t know how his poor teams and utilization impacts that.

He is often lost on defense.

Agree…the point of my post

As others have stated, he doesn’t protect the rim

Agree, especially as a center…alligator arms and frame doesn’t help.  However, there are a lot of really good PF’s who aren’t great rim protectors.  Actually, with a little foresight, we could have had a PF from Finland who would have looked really nice in a Mav’s uniform.

Not quick enough to cover most 4s.

Disagree…quickness is not his problem

He is also not strong enough to defend a lot of 5s (kind of like Powell).  

Agree, because he is not a 5 (maybe a small ball 5 at best)

He also doesn’t really box

Boxing out is about attention and effort.

He is a 24 year old kid (23 last season) who made his money because of offense and will lose his money because of defense.  He has developed lazy habits and IMO, neglected parts of his game.  If the light bulb comes on and he is willing to sacrifice a little immediate gratification to work on his deficiencies, I would definitely take a flier in a low cost deal.

[surfpuckmd]

I think we mostly agree on Bagley.  There’s some potential there but he’s not very good right now.  The problem with your suggestion is that he’s not a potential low-cost option.  He will make over $12 million per year for the next two seasons.  If he’s available for the minimum in a couple of years, I’d be ok with that signing.

He also doesn’t fit the Mavericks current roster at this time so I’m not sure why we’re all spending so much time discussing him here.  Overall, I think your analysis of Bagley is reasonable.  The Pistons have made the same bet on him that you have suggested-  they gave up a few 2nd rounders for him then gave him a 3-year contract to see if he can improve defensively.  

Monty Williams is a good coach so it’s possible.

[RDB]

I think we mostly agree on Bagley.  There’s some potential there but he’s not very good right now.  The problem with your suggestion is that he’s not a potential low-cost option.  He will make over $12 million per year for the next two seasons.  If he’s available for the minimum in a couple of years, I’d be ok with that signing.

He also doesn’t fit the Mavericks current roster at this time so I’m not sure why we’re all spending so much time discussing him here.  Overall, I think your analysis of Bagley is reasonable.  The Pistons have made the same bet on him that you have suggested-  they gave up a few 2nd rounders for him then gave him a 3-year contract to see if he can improve defensively.  

Monty Williams is a good coach so it’s possible.

Because it was brought up by a poster and it’s dead season for the NBA and this board.  

If you look at the last 3ish days of posts, outside of a few asking about the Hornets strategy, almost every post relates back to the 1st Bagley question.  

If the original poster hadn’t brought up the subject, you could have just visited the thread this morning and be caught up for the week before you finished your morning dump…assuming you take quick dumps.

[surfpuckmd]

I suggest Blake Griffin for the Mavericks 15th roster spot.  He didn't play a lot of minutes last year for the Celtics but he had a very positive impact when he played.  He's become an excellent defensive player and would be a better rebounder than Dwight Powell.  He is a good passer and actually hit a decent percentage from 3 last season.  He's a former star who's evolved into a useful role player as he's lost his athleticism.  RAPTOR had him at + 4.7 last season which is really strong.  I think he would be a good fit here as a part of our center rotation.  I also think Jason Kidd would respect him and play him when he's healthy.

[SleepingHero]

I suggest Blake Griffin for the Mavericks 15th roster spot.  He didn't play a lot of minutes last year for the Celtics but he had a very positive impact when he played.  He's become an excellent defensive player and would be a better rebounder than Dwight Powell.  He is a good passer and actually hit a decent percentage from 3 last season.  He's a former star who's evolved into a useful role player as he's lost his athleticism.  RAPTOR had him at + 4.7 last season which is really strong.  I think he would be a good fit here as a part of our center rotation.  I also think Jason Kidd would respect him and play him when he's healthy.

Actually an interesting name I've forgotten about. Problem with Griffin has always been his ability to keep up defensively. He also just might be totally shot health wise. 

But as a 15th man? He brings an established vet that's a flashy name who can come in for 30-40 games and play 15 mins. That's pretty valuable. Issue is I can't see the Mavs pushing towards the tax line for Griffin. Especially since we've been throwing around multiple variations of the same trades for the same guys and all of them ending with the Mavs barely under the tax line. 

Got to keep in mind that as long as the Mavs stay under that 165mm number Cubes is going to get a check for around 20+mil. That's not nothing. 

For what it's worth, some highlights of Griffin last year for Boston:

[mvossman]

I suggest Blake Griffin for the Mavericks 15th roster spot.  He didn't play a lot of minutes last year for the Celtics but he had a very positive impact when he played.  He's become an excellent defensive player and would be a better rebounder than Dwight Powell.  He is a good passer and actually hit a decent percentage from 3 last season.  He's a former star who's evolved into a useful role player as he's lost his athleticism.  RAPTOR had him at + 4.7 last season which is really strong.  I think he would be a good fit here as a part of our center rotation.  I also think Jason Kidd would respect him and play him when he's healthy.

An interesting thought.  The other advanced stats (which I like better than RAPTOR) are not nearly that high on him, but do like his defense.  I wonder if that has a little to do with him playing for the Celtics.  Sometimes a team has enough good defenders that they can hide a player such that his net rating (and even on/off) looks good even though he is not the reason why.  I'm not sure any team was as deep as Boston defensively last season.

Personally, I'm still holding out hope for Derrick Jones Jr.  If we can get him for the min or a little more (and stay below tax) I think he could be a steal.  We would be adding another quality, versatile defender to the rotation who is only 26, and is slowly inching his 3 into respectable territory.  I would love to get him on something similar to Dorian's prior contract, which would be significant value if he continues his offensive progress.

[surfpuckmd]

An interesting thought.  The other advanced stats (which I like better than RAPTOR) are not nearly that high on him, but do like his defense.  I wonder if that has a little to do with him playing for the Celtics.  Sometimes a team has enough good defenders that they can hide a player such that his net rating (and even on/off) looks good even though he is not the reason why.  I'm not sure any team was as deep as Boston defensively last season.

Personally, I'm still holding out hope for Derrick Jones Jr.  If we can get him for the min or a little more (and stay below tax) I think he could be a steal.  We would be adding another quality, versatile defender to the rotation who is only 26, and is slowly inching his 3 into respectable territory.  I would love to get him on something similar to Dorian's prior contract, which would be significant value if he continues his offensive progress.

Jones is my preference as well and I suggested him as a good fit even before the start of free agency.  I actually think he’s a better player than Grant Williams other than Williams’ outstanding 3-point shooting.  I think a 2-year, $10 million dollar deal with the 2nd-year being a team option would be a good value deal.  I think he’d be a good rotation player for us.  I remain concerned that Cuban’s primary concerns with the Mavericks are financial and that he is not willing to spend the money to be competitive.  

Jones is too good a fit for the Mavericks otherwise.  I think Griffin could be useful too though and he would be cheaper for Cuban…who seems to prefer the cheaper options these days.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Jones is my preference as well and I suggested him as a good fit even before the start of free agency.  I actually think he’s a better player than Grant Williams other than Williams’ outstanding 3-point shooting.  I think a 2-year, $10 million dollar deal with the 2nd-year being a team option would be a good value deal.  I think he’d be a good rotation player for us.  I remain concerned that Cuban’s primary concerns with the Mavericks are financial and that he is not willing to spend the money to be competitive.  

Jones is too good a fit for the Mavericks otherwise.  I think Griffin could be useful too though and he would be cheaper for Cuban…who seems to prefer the cheaper options these days.

I'd rather that spot be for grooming a much younger player.  We know what DJJ will contribute. which is minimal.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

https://twitter.com/BobbyMarks42/status/...7256641536


Is the middle class of the NBA being eliminated?

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

https://twitter.com/BobbyMarks42/status/...7256641536


Is the middle class of the NBA being eliminated?

Interesting discussion, but their conclusion is exactly wrong.  If you stratify the pay ranges into bigger groups, you see that the "middle class" has actually grown.

0.8% to 4.9% = -4.4%
5.0% to 14.9% = +14.9%
15.0% to 24.9% = +53.9%
25% to 100% = -27.5%

[mvossman]

I'd rather that spot be for grooming a much younger player.  We know what DJJ will contribute. which is minimal.

Agree to disagree.  He already provides value as a plus defender that doesn't completely kill you on offense, and at 26 he is not necessarily a finished product.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Agree to disagree.  He already provides value as a plus defender that doesn't completely kill you on offense, and at 26 he is not necessarily a finished product.

Agree that DJJ is a better option than B.Griffin.  Again, I'd rather search for summer league defensive studs without a contract.  I was a huge fan of Champagnie last year for this role.  Now SAS has a 22yo big wing defender at $3m/yr.

[surfpuckmd]

I'd rather that spot be for grooming a much younger player.  We know what DJJ will contribute. which is minimal.

Jones is a really good and versatile defender.  Although only 6'5, he's an elite athlete with a 7'0 wingspan and provides some rim protection.   He is an elite athlete and would provide another lob threat which is great because Luka is really great at finding lob threats.  DJJ is also excellent in transition and would work well in the Kyrie-only minutes where we will run more.  

I would generally be in favor of another developmental player but the Mavs are in the rare position (for us) of having multiple developmental players on the team already-  Lively, OMax, Hardy and even Josh Green.  I think we have a number of other question marks on the roster as well.  Another solid, proven rotation player should be a priority.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Jones is a really good and versatile defender.  Although only 6'5, he's an elite athlete with a 7'0 wingspan and provides some rim protection.   He is an elite athlete and would provide another lob threat which is great because Luka is really great at finding lob threats.  DJJ is also excellent in transition and would work well in the Kyrie-only minutes where we will run more.  

I would generally be in favor of another developmental player but the Mavs are in the rare position (for us) of having multiple developmental players on the team already-  Lively, OMax, Hardy and even Josh Green.  I think we have a number of other question marks on the roster as well.  Another solid, proven rotation player should be a priority.

Good points.  I wouldn't dislike it.

[F Gump]

The issue with DJJ is price vs production.

He's already been in the league 7 years. We have a fairly reliable picture of who he will be -- some good defense, but almost no offense. He's a bit bigger version of Franky Smokes.

He's already been signed on the "maybe we can get more out of him" plan, more than once, and it looks like what you already see is what you get. He's a 8th-9th man or so.

I think he's waiting for an offer up around 9-10M. Last year he played for about 3, but he wants more money and a bigger role. He makes sense at the minimum, and probably not much more. So he sits.

[DanSchwartzgan]

If the following trade went down, what else would Dallas have to add and who would get it?

PJ Washington to Cleveland

THJ to Charlotte

Allen to Dallas

[KillerLeft]

If the following trade went down, what else would Dallas have to add and who would get it?

PJ Washington to Cleveland

THJ to Charlotte

Allen to Dallas

I saw that fakeout, too.

Green or Hardy would be gone, imo, probably to Charlotte.  Might have to send a sweetener to Cleveland, too. It’s not enough for the ‘27, I don’t think. Doesn’t feel realistic, especially since I don’t think Dallas can do without THJ AND either Green or Hardy.