Trade & FA 2023-24: NOP Will Not Give Ingram an Extension

[dirkfansince1998]

DAJ 2.0 isn´t the missing piece. Stay away from overpaid dinosaurs. Mavs won´t survive another mass extinction.

[KillerLeft]

DAJ 2.0 isn´t the missing piece. Stay away from overpaid dinosaurs. Mavs won´t survive another mass extinction.

Is that how you see Capela? 

I strongly disagree, but I usually agree with you. Are you basing this on watching him, or just stats? I think he's still a great player who was held back (and maybe even under motivated) by the circus of drama, selfishness and coaching changes that has been ATL for the past couple of seasons.

[dirkfansince1998]

Is that how you see Capela? 

I strongly disagree, but I usually agree with you. Are you basing this on watching him, or just stats? I think he's still a great player who was held back (and maybe even under motivated) by the circus of drama, selfishness and coaching changes that has been ATL for the past couple of seasons.

A little bit of both. Didn´t really watch any Hawks games in the regular season but what I saw in the playoffs wasn´t pretty. Played off the floor because he couldn´t defend in space. Also wasn´t providing any rim protection. Okongwu took his spot in the closing five.
DAJ comparisation is mostly about the numbers. DFG% at the rim, blk/36, +/-. Worst numbers of his career in all categories. Exactly what we saw from DAJ before he joined the Mavs. A guy that has given up or simply cannot do it any more on the defensive end. Only remaining quality is rebounding.
I could be wrong and maybe it is just my usual Mavs big PTSD kicking in but isn´t the last part of your post similar to the pro DAJ cases we had on this board. Would be more inclined to believe in the resurrection of a guy in his early/mid 20s. Not buying it when it comes to aging bigs that clearly lost some of their athleticism.

[KillerLeft]

I would also wager that there is no way we end up making the ‘27 pick and it will likely be gone by the end of next years FA.  However, I just see no need to be in a rush.  Let’s see what we have and not throw it against the wall and hope it sticks.  I think you and I agree here.

Totally agree that the pick goes out long before '27. Very low chance of the Mavs keeping it in order to draft a player. Almost nil. 

Here's the thing about it that I don't think people are getting: it would be silly to move it in a deal that calls for a garden-variety late first. 

WE can argue with each other about whether or not we believe it will be a late 1st, late lottery pick or #1 overall (worst case scenario) all we want, and all opinions/predictions about that are as valid as the next, I suppose. BUT, part of its value is the potential that Luka will be gone, the team will suck, and the pick's new owner lucks into an insanely valuable asset. That is what you're bartering with - that's the upside for the other team because it basically has to be unprotected. 

Look, I wouldn't have sent that unprotected '29 out for Kyrie - that's well documented around here. But, in that situation, they at least got the maximum "high risk, high reward" value for the pick. The "cheap" trade cost of Kyrie was partly because he was toxic, and partly because BRK decided to bet on the idea that Dallas will be a mess by '29. They're betting the pick will be a great one, Dallas is betting it won't. I don't like the risk, especially given Luka was 23 years old at the time, but at least they got the pick's value in return. If that trade had been paid in the usual, lottery-protected, "you're only getting this 1st if it's a LATE one" type of picks (like the ones Dallas sent to NY for Porzingis) it would probably have called for like 3 of them. 

The '27 is the exact, same situation. Even if we, as fans, are 100% sure that it's going to be a late first, the team CAN'T protect it in such a way to alleviate the risk. So, if they move it, they need to move it to a team willing to make a futures bet similar to the one BRK made. They need to get VALUE that parallels the risk they're taking, and Capela comes nowhere close from my seat. 

Again, they have pissed away so many firsts that they can't really protect it in the traditional way. That's the problem. Alternatively, they could maybe protect it in such a way that it IMMEDIATELY becomes a 2nd or two if it's too high, but that almost makes it LESS valuable than a garden-variety 1st. I'm not sure that's ENOUGH value to get someone useful, tbh. 

Trade it, sure. Just don't get FLEECED.

There is a future in which that unprotected '27 is a FAR more valuable asset than either Hardy or Green, and it needs to be treated and dangled with that in mind. Not treated like the same type of asset that the Mavs used to get Christian Wood.

[RDB]

Totally agree that the pick goes out long before '27. Very low chance of the Mavs keeping it in order to draft a player. Almost nil. 

Here's the thing about it that I don't think people are getting: it would be silly to move it in a deal that calls for a garden-variety late first. 

WE can argue with each other about whether or not we believe it will be a late 1st, late lottery pick or #1 overall (worst case scenario) all we want, and all opinions/predictions about that are as valid as the next, I suppose. BUT, part of its value is the potential that Luka will be gone, the team will suck, and the pick's new owner lucks into an insanely valuable asset. That is what you're bartering with - that's the upside for the other team because it basically has to be unprotected. 

Look, I wouldn't have sent that unprotected '29 out for Kyrie - that's well documented around here. But, in that situation, they at least got the maximum "high risk, high reward" value for the pick. The "cheap" trade cost of Kyrie was partly because he was toxic, and partly because BRK decided to bet on the idea that Dallas will be a mess by '29. They're betting the pick will be a great one, Dallas is betting it won't. I don't like the risk, especially given Luka was 23 years old at the time, but at least they got the pick's value in return. If that trade had been paid in the usual, lottery-protected, "you're only getting this 1st if it's a LATE one" type of picks (like the ones Dallas sent to NY for Porzingis) it would probably have called for like 3 of them. 

The '27 is the exact, same situation. Even if we, as fans, are 100% sure that it's going to be a late first, the team CAN'T protect it in such a way to alleviate the risk. So, if they move it, they need to move it to a team willing to make a futures bet similar to the one BRK made. They need to get VALUE that parallels the risk they're taking, and Capela comes nowhere close from my seat. 

Again, they have pissed away so many firsts that they can't really protect it in the traditional way. That's the problem. Alternatively, they could maybe protect it in such a way that it IMMEDIATELY becomes a 2nd or two if it's too high, but that almost makes it LESS valuable than a garden-variety 1st. I'm not sure that's ENOUGH value to get someone useful, tbh. 

Trade it, sure. Just don't get FLEECED.

There is a future in which that unprotected '27 is a FAR more valuable asset than either Hardy or Green, and it needs to be treated and dangled with that in mind. Not treated like the same type of asset that the Mavs used to get Christian Wood.

I agree.  Personally, I would be shocked if Cuban lost Luka but that doesn’t mean I would discount the potential value of that possibility.  We talk about the need to act fast quite often but I think Luka is home and the Mav’s will remain competitive throughout his prime years barring injury or a Big Mac addiction.  If not, it would be interesting to see what kind of haul we could get for him.

Frankly, I am not a fan of the habit of trading away draft picks.  If I were a 3 comma owner, I would have an army of scouts and quants on incentive based compensation working overtime.  The market is going to tank soon (not financial advice), go hire some quants from Goldman Sachs or Citadel.  I might even see what it would cost to poach the Spurs & Heat staff…everyone has a price.  I say that somewhat tongue in cheek but it would be nice if we had the players that other teams covet v. the other way around.  In the FA market, players either have warts or their value is demonstrated and you pay a premium.

[myconsumerclub]

If Cap Hella is heading to the trash heap of the league then this is a guy we would be wise to avoid and not get suckered into taking on at that specific point of his career where his skills take a nose dive and his production is about to drop off significantly. Certainly not if a FRP is involved. Just see what we can get elsewhere.

[ItsGoTime]

The more I think about this Tor-Atl-Dal deal and connect the dots and read the tea leaves, I have to wonder if it is Tor asking for Green to be included in the deal and Nico won’t budge on that inclusion. The report was that Tor wants players not picks for Siakam. Hunter, Bey and Green (maybe they were also even asking for Hardy) is a group of guys that can grow with Barnes. If they’re sending us OG to go with Capela, I’m down with letting both go (maybe even the 27 too), but I’m not willing to let go of either of those two for just Capela as I think they are worth more than what I believe that pick will turn out to be.

KL was talking about wanting teams to value the 27 as if Luka is gone and we’re a bottom feeder in the league. I agree wholeheartedly with that sentiment, that still doesn’t make me, myself value it the way the other team does. I know if Nico can replicate this offseason 2-3 more times before the 27 offseason, Luka will be happy with the team and we will be a top team in the league. Just don’t suffer too big a setback and be ready for some of the deals to not pan out the way they are hoped to (including the possibility of 1 or 2 of these guys acquired this offseason with Green/Hardy not panning out).

[ItsGoTime]

If Cap Hella is heading to the trash heap of the  league then this is a guy we would be wise to avoid and not get suckered into taking on at that specific point of his career where his skills take a nose dive and his production is about to drop off significantly. Certainly not if a FRP is involved. Just see what we can get elsewhere.

A 29 year old is still in a person’s prime. It wasn’t long ago I remember people saying most C’s start their prime later in age (29-30). For sure that was a time when C’s weren’t asked to do as much on the perimeter like they are today, but I think the loss of athleticism is quite a bit overblown.

If 29 was such a problem, why is Powell and Kleber such a different case? Holmes is 10ish months older than Cap, why are we not talking about that too terribly much? Cap also starts at a level so much higher than all players named above, if there is a slip, that should be happening to all the rest, Cap has a much bigger cushion to break the fall.

[KillerLeft]

The more I think about this Tor-Atl-Dal deal and connect the dots and read the tea leaves, I have to wonder if it is Tor asking for Green to be included in the deal and Nico won’t budge on that inclusion. The report was that Tor wants players not picks for Siakam. Hunter, Bey and Green (maybe they were also even asking for Hardy) is a group of guys that can grow with Barnes. If they’re sending us OG to go with Capela, I’m down with letting both go (maybe even the 27 too), but I’m not willing to let go of either of those two for just Capela as I think they are worth more than what I believe that pick will turn out to be.

KL was talking about wanting teams to value the 27 as if Luka is gone and we’re a bottom feeder in the league. I agree wholeheartedly with that sentiment, that still doesn’t make me, myself value it the way the other team does. I know if Nico can replicate this offseason 2-3 more times before the 27 offseason, Luka will be happy with the team and we will be a top team in the league. Just don’t suffer too big a setback and be ready for some of the deals to not pan out the way they are hoped to (including the possibility of 1 or 2 of these guys acquired this offseason with Green/Hardy not panning out).

I think, personally, the simplest explanation for the Siakim deal falling apart is that TOR values him more than the market does, especially given his impending free agency.

[dirkfansince1998]

A 29 year old is still in a person’s prime. It wasn’t long ago I remember people saying most C’s start their prime later in age (29-30). For sure that was a time when C’s weren’t asked to do as much on the perimeter like they are today, but I think the loss of athleticism is quite a bit overblown.

If 29 was such a problem, why is Powell and Kleber such a different case? Holmes is 10ish months older than Cap, why are we not talking about that too terribly much? Cap also starts at a level so much higher than all players named above, if there is a slip, that should be happening to all the rest, Cap has a much bigger cushion to break the fall.

How do you explain his regular season stats? Why isn´t he blocking shots or protecting the rim at the same level as he used to? Why did the Hawks close games with Okongwu in the series against the Celtics? Why is he on the trade block?

One just signed for a little bit more than the minimum. One is signed for less than the MLE and can actually close games. One was the negative contract they had to eat in the OMAX trade. Not exactly the same as the rumored Capela trades that have the Mavs giving up some of their most valuable assets.

I am bringing up DAJ because some of the pro Capela takes that I see are almost identical to the ones that had people convinced DAJ would turn it around once he joined the Mavs. Assuming that it is about the situation in LA/Atlanta, motivation and/or fit. It´s a shame that those posts are lost. That summer generated some of the worst takes this community has ever seen. Also featured Luka doubters and Bagley fans.

[ItsGoTime]

How do you explain his regular season stats? Why isn´t he blocking shots or protecting the rim at the same level as he used to? Why did the Hawks close games with Okongwu in the series against the Celtics? Why is he on the trade block?

One just signed for a little bit more than the minimum. One is signed for less than the MLE and can actually close games. One was the negative contract they had to eat in the OMAX trade. Not exactly the same as the rumored Capela trades that have the Mavs giving up some of their most valuable assets.

I subscribe to more of what KL sees. Lack of motivation given the situation he finds himself mainly. I never want to fully dismiss any possibility, especially given that none of us watch him day in and day out, and even if we did, our guesses could be totally off base. That is why I try to bring things into a % of possibilities (kinda like Wemby being injury prone). I’d guess your % possibility of him being a dinosaur is high while my % is low. It’s as simple as that.

[ItsGoTime]

I think, personally, the simplest explanation for the Siakim deal falling apart is that TOR values him more than the market does, especially given his impending free agency.

That basically says the same thing I did, and to that point, Masai has not accepted any deal for his Champ team players, so that is highly likely. It is amazing to me that he can value them so highly and yet where have they taken him since?

[dirkfansince1998]

I subscribe to more of what KL sees. Lack of motivation given the situation he finds himself mainly. I never want to fully dismiss any possibility, especially given that none of us watch him day in and day out, and even if we did, our guesses could be totally off base. That is why I try to bring things into a % of possibilities (kinda like Wemby being injury prone). I’d guess your % possibility of him being a dinosaur is high while my % is low. It’s as simple as that.

Not like I haven´t tried to make the same case at some point in the past. Probably as recently as the Ayton trade talks. And I think this is spot on. It´s rare but it happens. Odds aren´t in Capela's favor but we have seen players turn things around on a new team.

[KillerLeft]

Not like I haven´t tried to make the same case at some point in the past. Probably as recently as the Ayton trade talks. And I think this is spot on. It´s rare but it happens. Odds aren´t in Capela's favor but we have seen players turn things around on a new team.

There's a huge chasm between giving up Green or the unprotected '27 and giving up Holmes or THJ, with maybe a small 2nd as sweetener to ATL or to a 3rd team to eat McGee's golden parachute. The latter doesn't really end the world if he's as in decline as you're worried he is.

(I know you know this. Just funny how we talk these things to death so much that the talking points end up in binary, extreme terms)

[mvossman]

I subscribe to more of what KL sees. Lack of motivation given the situation he finds himself mainly. I never want to fully dismiss any possibility, especially given that none of us watch him day in and day out, and even if we did, our guesses could be totally off base. That is why I try to bring things into a % of possibilities (kinda like Wemby being injury prone). I’d guess your % possibility of him being a dinosaur is high while my % is low. It’s as simple as that.

I think there is a decent chance lack of motivation contributed to Capela's down year.  It could also just be a down year.  But if we are going to give Capela some benefit of the doubt, seems like we would do the same with Holmes, right?  I realize we have to go back another year, but he had so many more reasons for his issues.  From a serious eye injury to an ugly custody battle to Sabonis getting traded in front of him, to his team going away from P&R, to an ugly liable case with a writer who basically accused him beating his child to wasting away on the bench.  I mean how many reasons can there be for a player to struggle.

[ItsGoTime]

I think there is a decent chance lack of motivation contributed to Capela's down year.  It could also just be a down year.  But if we are going to give Capela some benefit of the doubt, seems like we would do the same with Holmes, right?  I realize we have to go back another year, but he had so many more reasons for his issues.  From a serious eye injury to an ugly custody battle to Sabonis getting traded in front of him, to his team going away from P&R, to an ugly liable case with a writer who basically accused him beating his child to wasting away on the bench.  I mean how many reasons can there be for a player to struggle.

That’s preaching to the choir with me. I think both would have a bounce back year here, I just know Capela’s height is so much higher than Holmes’. But that’s my guess, better is better, and I see that I don’t hold the 27 in as high regard as some of you guys here. Certainly not as much as Green or Hardy which is why I’d rather use it than one of those two, cause I think that is pretty much what’s going on right now (or where talks ended).

[Mavs2021]

I think there is a decent chance lack of motivation contributed to Capela's down year.  It could also just be a down year.  But if we are going to give Capela some benefit of the doubt, seems like we would do the same with Holmes, right?  I realize we have to go back another year, but he had so many more reasons for his issues.  From a serious eye injury to an ugly custody battle to Sabonis getting traded in front of him, to his team going away from P&R, to an ugly liable case with a writer who basically accused him beating his child to wasting away on the bench.  I mean how many reasons can there be for a player to struggle.

That´s what it all comes down to is evaluation, but Dirk is also making a fair point in the other direction, that fans always seem to ignore the #1 elephant in the room: Why does the other team want to trade him, if he is so awesome? Happens every time.

Okay they want to pay and start Okongwu. Will Okongwu make less than Capela on his next contract? Unlikely. So it comes down to level of play. Right now he´s at 10/7 with 1.3 BPG at roughly 23 MPG. Obviously you bank on further improvement from a 22 year old. Capela is at 12/11 with 1.2 BPG in 27 MPG. I know basic stats analysis. 

So is the only difference age? What are other factors to look at? Salary cap and roster configuration. 

They are under the tax for this and next year. They have a PF/C rotation of Okongwu/Capela/Fernando/Gueye (rookie). Not exactly the Pacific Ocean regarding depth.

[mvossman]

That’s preaching to the choir with me. I think both would have a bounce back year here, I just know Capela’s height is so much higher than Holmes’. But that’s my guess, better is better, and I see that I don’t hold the 27 in as high regard as some of you guys here. Certainly not as much as Green or Hardy which is why I’d rather use it than one of those two, cause I think that is pretty much what’s going on right now (or where talks ended).

I don't think the gap is that wide between the two in their prime.  Capela is a better rebounder, and a little better defender (although I don't think by as much as a lot of folks think), but otherwise very similar players.  If we assume for a second that they both rebound to their old selves, and take into account that Capela's cap hit is much higher than Holmes, I don't think the difference is a significant asset.

[KillerLeft]

Capela is a better rebounder, and a little better defender (although I don't think by as much as a lot of folks think)

With respect, I disagree in a major way. You're an advanced stats guy, so I'm wouldn't be surprised if you have something to back up this opinion, but imo it would work as an argument for abandoning advanced stats altogether (tongue in cheek). Capela, whatever we think he's still got left, was a FINE defender during the end of his Rockets tenure. One of the best in the game - a difference maker. 

I like Holmes, but have never thought of him as a difference maker on either end.

[ItsGoTime]

I don't think the gap is that wide between the two in their prime.  Capela is a better rebounder, and a little better defender (although I don't think by as much as a lot of folks think), but otherwise very similar players.  If we assume for a second that they both rebound to their old selves, and take into account that Capela's cap hit is much higher than Holmes, I don't think the difference is a significant asset.

On top of what KL said, he is a significantly better rebounder especially on the offensive side. At their respective peaks, Holmes scored 12 ppg while Capela scored 15. Some significant (in very important places for this team) differences and some marginal ones makes it a huge difference IMO.