Trade & FA 2023-24: Paul George to Test Free Agency After No Contract Extension

[KillerLeft]

Totally agree with you about the high risk of the Kyrie trade, just not as convinced that it will lead to losing a top pick since so much (good or bad) can happen between then and now.

Ok, last one and then I'll let this die for now because I can tell I'm the dude whose mood is ruining the party for everyone else, and generally speaking I'm actually in a pretty positive place with my Mavs relationship right now. 

But...I'd argue that if the Kyrie thing goes belly up (and, it's so far into the future that this probably true even if it does not), the need not to let that pick become a top pick will have a noticeable and significant influence on tons and tons of decisions leading up to that summer. 

When I criticize the last decade, I'm not talking about the couple of seasons immediately after the championship. I was one of the most vocally against letting Chandler/Barea walk, don't get me wrong. But what I'm talking about is what happened after hope was gone - the ridiculous "well, Dirk is still here, so they've got to TRY to compete." Insane. Wheel-spinning. Sometimes, you need to bottom out and start building the next thing. 

Fortunately, Luka is still so young that the Porzingis thing and even the Brunson thing aren't going to kill his career here. I just don't know if that can still be said for the post-Kyrie portion of it, if in fact that era of his Mavs tenure ever even exists.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

One thing to remember about our having the #10, that got us Lively and rid of Bertans, is that it was pennies from heaven that the Mavs chose to grab up.  Had we not tanked we wouldn't have had that pick.  By the most narrowest of odds, our ping-pong ball came up #10.  If you look at it, the decision to tank and the masterful moves in the draft turned Bertans ($17m) into Lively, OMax, and Holmes (his negative value contract at least), for a total of $19.4m.  If nothing else, it proves that FRPs are valuable in moving back and shedding dead money like Bertans.  I have to remind myself that this is the kind of maneuvering that gets you an amazing roster. 

Current negative money (my estimate)...
McGee -- 100% of $11.7m over 2 years = -$11.7m
THJ -- 30% of $33.9m over 2 years = -$10.17m
Holmes -- 75% of $24.8m over 2 years = -$18.6m

This is a total of -$40.47m over 2 years, -$20.24m/year

IMO, we have to start looking at the % of negative value in every trade deal.  For instance, I'd say Ayton is at $20m/yr player, making his contract -$40.6m over 3 years.

[Jmaciscool]

By the most narrowest of odds, our ping-pong ball came up #10

Somewhere in the multiverse is the darkest timeline where the Mavs win the final game and end up sending the pick to NY. No Lively, no Omax, no G Williams, and still have Bertans. 

I feel sorry for that universe's Mavs fans.

[F Gump]

Now, look at how great MOST of us (not all of us) feel about this off-season, wherein the Mavs simply had a pick and the MLE to deal with, just like most teams. Look at what they were able to do with all of that. They turned the pick into three assets, each bringing varying degrees of promise and optimism for the next few seasons. They were able to use the MLE to leverage a sign and trade for probably the best Luka-fitting FA on the market. 

Maybe others feel differently. I might have felt differently 5-7 years ago. But, where I am right now is this: if they just did THIS kind of work EVERY summer, or at least like three out of every five summers, they would be a contender in no time without any of these big risks. AND, that type of organic contention is sustainable over a longer period of time.

It's this truth that I think has been missing in your predictions of gloom and doom in 2029 - which is, the approach of adding a really good piece here, and another there, can change everything. And there's a current indication that they may be heading in that direction. It's very doable.

The point being, while you look at 2029 as doomed because "Kyrie won't be here," you also have to look at 2023-2029 as a time span so long that it can easily provide numerous opportunities to add and develop MULTIPLE players who can be difference-makers, such that Kyrie isn't really missed (assuming he's gone). 

Aren't they already starting to put some building blocks in place around Luka, who can be really good by the time we get to 2029? For example, what if Lively, OMax, and GWill all develop into key starters who turn out to be as good next to Luka as we think they will be? What if Green takes another step or three in his game? What if Hardy becomes Kyrie-Light by the time Kyrie's contract ends? What if Kyrie as he starts to age out likes it here, and re-signs to play as your 6th Man, a walking bucket off the bench like Jamal Crawford or Lou Williams did in similar age bracket?

And what about players they don't have yet, but that will get in 2024, 2025, and 2026 and who will have the opportunity to make an impact by the time we get to 2027, 2029, and 2029?

Can't this team grow, so that 2025-2029 will be even BETTER than 2023-2025?

[KillerLeft]

It's this truth that I think has been missing in your predictions of gloom and doom in 2029 - which is, the approach of adding a really good piece here, and another there, can change everything. And there's a current indication that they may be heading in that direction. It's very doable.

The point being, while you look at 2029 as doomed because "Kyrie won't be here," you also have to look at 2023-2029 as a time span so long that it can easily provide numerous opportunities to add and develop MULTIPLE players who can be difference-makers, such that Kyrie isn't really missed (assuming he's gone). 

Aren't they already starting to put some building blocks in place around Luka, who can be really good by the time we get to 2029? For example, what if Lively, OMax, and GWill all develop into key starters who turn out to be as good next to Luka as we think they will be? What if Green takes another step or three in his game? What if Hardy becomes Kyrie-Light by the time Kyrie's contract ends? What if Kyrie as he starts to age out likes it here, and re-signs to play as your 6th Man, a walking bucket off the bench like Jamal Crawford or Lou Williams did in similar age bracket?

And what about players they don't have yet, but that will get in 2024, 2025, and 2026 and who will have the opportunity to make an impact by the time we get to 2027, 2029, and 2029?

Can't this team grow, so that 2025-2029 will be even BETTER than 2023-2025?

Right, except each time they make a deal like this one (this all started as a debate about giving an unprotected '27 for Clint Capela, who ironically you, my biggest combatant in this fight, would also not choose to do for largely the exact same reasoning as me) they are left with fewer "tools" to make the kind of moves you're talking about here. 

It is specifically because they are beginning to show an ability to identify smart moves and execute them that I wish they had more tools to use in the future, not fewer.

[KillerLeft]

But FGump, you're right about a big part of the conversation.

If I'm honest, I think there's less than a 10% chance that Kyrie's time here is as successful as we hope. I can logically point to the idea that the pick will happen so far into the future that it won't matter how successful his time here is, and I think there's validity to that, but I suppose it's true that I could be wrong about what Luka/Kyrie will accomplish, and that some will be honest enough to give them a pass when times get tougher based on their willingness to embrace the risk now, beforehand.

I didn't like it beforehand, so I'm probably more inclined to expect that the potential negatives are likely.

I kind of feel like it's fairly possible we might look back at the Kyrie trade as the final big mistake that sealed the coffin on the Luka era. The final catalyst that pushes him out of here to greener pastures. It just seems like Kyrie was the most risky, volatile choice out there to tie these next few years to, imo. If you remember, Kyrie's rep was so distressed at the time (not long ago) that a prominent poster here was convinced BRK would have to PAY picks to Dallas to just take him off their hands. So convinced that he couldn't wrap his head around this deal and seems to have given up the Mavs altogether. I didn't think the Mavs would gain assets to get Kyrie for a second, but I do think we saw good behavior from him for a couple of months leading up to a new contract negotiation and seem to have all decided that his rep was unearned. The rest of the world does not agree - only Mavs fans. Count me in the "still worried" camp, lol.

I would've been focused on ensuring there was TONS of talent here during the specific time Luka's next contract is being offered, and by extension the few years immediately after. I think THAT'S when he looks around and compares this situation to others, and I think that's more important than how much success they have between now and then. It seems like your point is that they can do BOTH. I sure hope you are correct.

[F Gump]

Right, except each time they make a deal like this one (this all started as a debate about giving an unprotected '27 for Clint Capela, who ironically you, my biggest combatant in this fight, would also not choose to do for largely the exact same reasoning as me) they are left with fewer "tools" to make the kind of moves you're talking about here. 

It is specifically because they are beginning to show an ability to identify smart moves and execute them that I wish they had more tools to use in the future, not fewer.

Look, they "borrowed" a pick from their future, and used it to add a legit super-talented all-star to the mix IMMEDIATELY. In terms of their ability to draft-and-develop over the next 6 years, it cost them nothing. They pay for it in 2031 or so, or maybe never, depending on the pick.

I think that's well worth it. You wouldn't have done the trade. Opinions.

I would not do that for Capela. Part of that is because I don't think he's worth it, and partly because I think he can be had much more inexpensively. Kyrie is way more valuable imo, and he was also "superstar talent who can be obtained," which really matters.

Some other random thoughts ....

I think the "young superstar" you want to hold out for is going to take years to find, if ever, and he will come with high risk and lots of warts, and the price will be triple what Kyrie cost. KP is a great example. While you think that's still the way to game plan, I don't think it's practical unless that unicorn is right in front of you. Instead, I think THAT trade may never come, while Luka waits for help. Opinions.

Draft-and-develop? Vital. And the Kyrie trade didn't conflict with that need. The Mavs really didn't lose any opportunity in that area, with the trade, since they traded their farthest away pick who won't be of any impact for almost a decade (if ever). They needed additions NOW.

Speaking of now -- if Holmes could give them what they hoped Wood would be, an already useful center, that would be so helpful.

[Mavs2021]

Look, they "borrowed" a pick from their future, and used it to add a legit super-talented all-star to the mix IMMEDIATELY. In terms of their ability to draft-and-develop over the next 6 years, it cost them nothing. They pay for it in 2031 or so, or maybe never, depending on the pick.

I think that's well worth it. You wouldn't have done the trade. Opinions.

I would not do that for Capela. Part of that is because I don't think he's worth it, and partly because I think he can be had much more inexpensively. Kyrie is way more valuable imo, and he was also "superstar talent who can be obtained," which really matters.

Some other random thoughts ....

I think the "young superstar" you want to hold out for is going to take years to find, if ever, and he will come with high risk and lots of warts, and the price will be triple what Kyrie cost. KP is a great example. While you think that's still the way to game plan, I don't think it's practical unless that unicorn is right in front of you. Instead, I think THAT trade may never come, while Luka waits for help. Opinions.

Draft-and-develop? Vital. And the Kyrie trade didn't conflict with that need. The Mavs really didn't lose any opportunity in that area, with the trade, since they traded their farthest away pick who won't be of any impact for almost a decade (if ever). They needed additions NOW.

Speaking of now -- if Holmes could give them what they hoped Wood would be, an already useful center, that would be so helpful.

[Smitty]

What the Mavs did in the draft makes me more inclined to use the ‘27 FRP to add a more win-now piece.

Had the Mavs not added 3 players under 24 this offseason then I would think differently. Having 6 players under 24 is plenty of cushion to hedge for the future. Luka is good enough to win NOW. Adding Kyrie means the Mavs are operating as if they’re contenders in the West. Having been to the WCF two years ago says they’re probably closer to contender than fighting for a play-in spot like last year.

Almost every addition this off-season is exactly what they needed to surround Luka/Kyrie with last year but couldn’t because of the Irving cost. Maxi wasn’t a factor, DFS was traded and Reggie was cooked. Exum, GWill, Omax, Lively are ‘defense first’ guys and those that don’t think they’ll be a top 4 team in the West are underestimating what putting the right kind of players around the two stars will do.

I’m not getting into the “ Is Capela worth a FRP” debate but that kind of player fits exactly what this team needs and could be the difference maker imo. Clearly the Mavs have interest and if they were willing to part with the FRP, the trade may have already materialized. In the end, if that’s the cost to get a difference maker for a contender - I’m okay leaning on the youth they’ve added this year as a hedge for the future.

[ItsGoTime]

I don't think anyone actually said they would trade 2027 for just Capela. Itsgotime thinks that would be the price if Holmes and McGee are matching salary. Lets say you traded 2027 pick and received a lottery protected pick back. I don't think that really drastically changes the future or current flexibility for Mavs.

Would love to be wrong and you right that we can get a protected pick back from Atl in the trade. That would be a home run deal IMO. I will say, if THJ was swapped with Holmes, I think that is a fair ask. I myself am probably alone on the island that I would still include the 27 in that case, but I understand why others would be upset with that…until we are in the WCF again!

[The Jom]

Kyrie ain’t the problem. If the Mavs are unsuccessful, the reasons (in declining levels of impact) will be:

1. Luka performance. (Has to be Dirk-like or better. I’m a firm believer he is and will be, last year notwithstanding.)

2. Kidd’s coaching. (I’m a believer, but not a confident one.)

3. Team health. (Always a crapshoot.)

4. Lack of development. (Not gonna bet against our young core.)

5. NBA rule/reffing changes. (They’ve already made a rule against foul baiting that would’ve killed Duane Wade and James Harden’s careers. Well, it did end Harden’s. What more can they adjust to handicap the Euros who are taking over the league? Guess we’ll see.)

Stupid Kyrie interviews just doesn’t make the list. Don’t mind anybody disliking the dude due to his—let’s charitably call them “political”—beliefs. But I cannot accept that (1) those beliefs, (2) his widely broadcast comments on them, and (3) fans’ reaction to them have any real effect on team performance.

Yes, yes, I know. Many disagree. But not that many who fall outside of (3) above.

[dirkfansince1998]

Kyrie ain’t the problem. If the Mavs are unsuccessful, the reasons (in declining levels of impact) will be:

1. Luka performance. (Has to be Dirk-like or better. I’m a firm believer he is and will be, last year notwithstanding.)

2. Kidd’s coaching. (I’m a believer, but not a confident one.)

3. Team health. (Always a crapshoot.)

4. Lack of development. (Not gonna bet against our young core.)

5. NBA rule/reffing changes. (They’ve already made a rule against foul baiting that would’ve killed Duane Wade and James Harden’s careers. Well, it did end Harden’s. What more can they adjust to handicap the Euros who are taking over the league? Guess we’ll see.)

Stupid Kyrie interviews just doesn’t make the list. Don’t mind anybody disliking the dude due to his—let’s charitably call them “political”—beliefs. But I cannot accept that (1) those beliefs, (2) his widely broadcast comments on them, and (3) fans’ reaction to them have any real effect on team performance.

Yes, yes, I know. Many disagree. But not that many who fall outside of (3) above.

Since he joined the Nets Kyrie played in...

19/20: 20/72 games
20/21: 54/72 games
21/22: 29/82 games
22/23: 60/82 games
---------------------------
   163/308 ~ 52.9% (for comparisation, worse than KP)

The impact on team performance isn´t about his believes. It´s about him missing games.

[ItsGoTime]

I agree with the sentiment of putting the best teams around Luka in order to lower the value of the picks we are sending out.  But that 27 pick is 4 years away.  I don't see it likely that Capela will be helping to lower the value of that pick.  I would much rather send the pick out for a younger player that has more chance to be contributing to lowering the pick's value in 4 years.

I think the experience Luka (and the rest of our youngsters) would most likely get by constantly getting to later rounds of the playoffs would pay off huge dividends 4 years from now. I think that stopgap is worth it alone. I said this when I created and championed the Capela pick swap trade idea, that Cap can play out his contract as the starter for 2 years, then sign an appropriate high level bench C contract and back up Lively when he is ready. 

In my world, Cap retires a Mav going from starter, to bench, to deep bench. In 4 years we could have a starting lineup of Luka/Green/OMax/GWill/Lively with Hardy as super 6th man. All of them are seasoned playoff performers by then. That team doesn’t take any more assets to create. 

Maybe a couple of them are used to get the 2nd superstar, maybe OMax IS that superstar. Maybe a couple of them don’t pan out as hoped and we use our other assets (in 4 years we’ll only have the 29 left to convey after the 27 draft) to replace them and we’ll have had picks in 25 and 26 for Nico to work more magic with.

Bottom line is, I would do it, I think it makes great sense. I see there are plenty here that wouldn’t. 

Question? Let’s say Nico pulled the trigger on that exact deal. How many of you (you and all those liking the opposite side’s posts) would be flipping sides and defending the FO from all the hate that would ensue?

[KillerLeft]

I think the experience Luka (and the rest of our youngsters) would most likely get by constantly getting to later rounds of the playoffs would pay off huge dividends 4 years from now. 

I think this is astute, and the team should be actively fighting like hell to make it reality. 

I think Capela moves the needle in that direction, but that there are better, more needle moving uses of '27 in the near future.

---

Question? Let’s say Nico pulled the trigger on that exact deal. How many of you (you and all those liking the opposite side’s posts) would be flipping sides and defending the FO from all the hate that would ensue?

Several probably would. I would not be among them. 

I would still watch and hope the team played well, including Capela, whom I like for this team.

[dirkfansince1998]

To add something to the pick discussion. Even with a younger roster the Mavs will have to look for young and cheap talent. By 2027 the entire young core of today will be on much bigger contracts (in a best case scenario...if the Mavs nailed the picks). The need to add more talent through the draft doesn´t go away just because they have young players right now.

[Smitty]

There is sooo much change from year to year much less 4 years from now. Build a competitive team while having two top 15-20 players.

Had the Mavs used the #10 pick, like 98% of us thought the would, on a veteran win-now piece I would be on the side of holding onto every future pick possible. But they instead added two FRP’s this year with high ceilings (and high floor’s imo). That alone offsets some risk of using a pick 4 years from now on a win-now piece.

Also like IGT pointed out. I want them to be as good as they can RIGHT NOW and again next year, etc for these 6 young guys to get all the playoff experience necessary. To make Luka happy, competing and knowing the FO is doing everything they can each year to try and win.

I’m ready for Cuban to open his pocketbook and start doing everything he can to build a team around a top 5 player - EVERY year!

[RDB]

What I think you are missing in your thinking is, that Mavs have tons more information. We watch games and some stats. It is perfectly understandable that a fan doesn't have much information how a certain player will develop.  Mavs live with those guys 24/7. They should know, especially about Brunson. No excuses there. 

I don't think anyone actually said they would trade 2027 for just Capela. Itsgotime thinks that would be the price if Holmes and McGee are matching salary. Lets say you traded 2027 pick and received a lottery protected pick back. I don't think that really drastically changes the future or current flexibility for Mavs.

I realize the Mav’s have more info than you or I.  And I did say that I am less forgiving with Brunson because they had him from the get go.  It still doesn’t change the fact that every poster is GM of the year with the luxury of hindsight.  If I support or fawn over a certain trade or pick and it later turns out to be a dud, I personally feel like it’s disingenuous to use the excuse that they should have known better to invalidate my position.

And to clarify my opinion on Capela, I personally am not in favor of including the ‘27 1st in any trade where he is the centerpiece.  The only way to know is to make the move and see how it turns out.  If the trade happens, I hope it turns out hugely positive and exposes me as a second rate armchair GM (which I probably am).  If it turns out bad, folks won’t see any I told you so’s or stone throwing from me, it’s all just speculation and educated guesses anyway.

[ItsGoTime]

I think this is astute, and the team should be actively fighting like hell to make it reality. 

I think Capela moves the needle in that direction, but that there are better, more needle moving uses of '27 in the near future.

---

Several probably would. I would not be among them. 

I would still watch and hope the team played well, including Capela, whom I like for this team.

I’ve very much appreciated not having to argue the fit for him on the team. On discord I literally had to explain how him being one of the best offensive rebounders in the league was a good thing. The counter argument was that we needed rim protection in the fastbreak. So, I thank you! 

I sometimes think it isn’t a bad idea to hold our ground on what we are offering like you have argued. I just know, training camp is pretty crucial to getting guys on the same page quickly. I also used to love the great jumpstarts to the season watching Dirk for all those years. We haven’t really seen that since he’s left.

As I said in the news thread and I know you won’t agree based on your thoughts of value towards the young guys and the 27, but I think the unprotected 27 is about the value of Green, the trade down of 5 spots in the draft and Atl paying the 2 SRPs to OKC for taking on McGee. As I said, I think of the value of that pick as being in the 20-30 range and it sounds like your valuation of it is in the top 4. That sounds like the real difference we are having. 

I know I have considered what I think is the unlikely possibility that it is top 4 as I’m sure you’ve considered my valuation (as well as the in between). I just think, if like you’ve said in another discussion (maybe it was dfs98, or maybe FGump?), that if we can do what we’ve done this offseason in the majority of the next 6 offseasons, we’ll be sitting pretty when the two picks convey. We certainly won’t have the derth of value we had this one!

Also, based on our discussion and my knowledge of your history, I wouldn’t expect you to be one of the people who flips the script in the way I was describing to mvossman. I know you would hate the trade from a value standpoint, but would give Cap the needed time to see if he does what we think he’d do.

[ItsGoTime]

As I said in the news thread and I know you won’t agree based on your thoughts of value towards the young guys and the 27, but I think the unprotected 27 is about the value of Green, the trade down of 5 spots in the draft and Atl paying the 2 SRPs to OKC for taking on McGee. (My edit: in addition to this value, whatever value you place on the difference in outgoing salary between THJ and Holmes/McGee)

[RDB]

But...I'd argue that if the Kyrie thing goes belly up (and, it's so far into the future that this probably true even if it does not), the need not to let that pick become a top pick will have a noticeable and significant influence on tons and tons of decisions leading up to that summer. 

When I criticize the last decade, I'm not talking about the couple of seasons immediately after the championship. I was one of the most vocally against letting Chandler/Barea walk, don't get me wrong. But what I'm talking about is what happened after hope was gone - the ridiculous "well, Dirk is still here, so they've got to TRY to compete." Insane. Wheel-spinning. Sometimes, you need to bottom out and start building the next thing. 

I understand your apprehension.  I would probably be more apprehensive prior to this off-season.  The “we just need 1 piece” attitude of the Mav’s of old drove me nuts.  I’m going to assume the positive that the Mav’s have seen the errors of their ways and have turned over a new leaf.  I haven’t seen a move this off-season that makes me believe the old ways are still in play.

I would also wager that there is no way we end up making the ‘27 pick and it will likely be gone by the end of next years FA.  However, I just see no need to be in a rush.  Let’s see what we have and not throw it against the wall and hope it sticks.  I think you and I agree here.

As far as frustrations about having “assets”, that is one of multiple things that I am happy about this off-season.  We kept Green, added 2 solid rookies, dumped a worthless Bertans, replaced a past his prime Bullock with a capable 3-D 24 year old Williams, replaced a bench cheerleader with a very high reward relative to the risk Exum, and have tried to move a no value McGee & an at best neutral value Hardaway.  We are younger, more athletic, and more capable defensively AND I believe, are in a much better position to operate from a position of strength next year.

If people thought this was a 1 year turnaround, they may have set expectations too high.  If people thought this was likely a two year process, I don’t see how anyone could be dissatisfied with what the team has done this off-season.  Personally, I haven’t felt this good about our 2-3 year window in a long time.  As F Gump said, we just need to string together a few of these types of off-seasons and we should have a foundation to make us serious players for whatever time Luka remains with the team.