Trade & FA 2023-24: NOP Will Not Give Ingram an Extension

[Jym]

Hawks - Siakam, Otto Porter Jr, McGee (+571k Cap)

Raptors - Hunter, Bufkin, [SnT 16M] PJ Washington, ‘24 ATL FRP (-4M Cap)

Mavs - Capela, [TPE] S. Bey (+1.5M Cap)

Hornets - THJ, ‘25 DAL SRP (+9.8M Cap)

Thoughts?

A few months ago the Hawks traded 5 second round picks for Bey so his inclusion makes no sense.

[omahen]

"Just say NO to trading 2027 for a non-star!!"

Mavs don't need a star. They need correct role players around their stars. Instead of a plan powder scenario, always waiting for that star, Mavs should aggresively pursue correct role players.  I think the Lakers example is a good indication for 2027 pick value. They dumped 45 mil (or whatever was Westbrook salary) for 3 role players. Russel was greatly overpaid and as it later turned out, so was Beasley. So, as I have been saying for a while, look to split the 2027 pick and bring in two correct role players.

I agree Capela is not worth unprotected FRP. But as Itsgotime pointed out, we are not offering good salary in return. We are offering negative value contracts (Holmes, McGee) that run for another season. Atlanta doesn't need cap savings. Same as Dallas, they need correct players around their star. I fail to see, why they would have much interest in those salaries. They can get back-up center for vet min and he probably won't produce much less than McGee or Holmes. 

Looks like Mavs like Capela. We know he is not worth 2027 pick and I am sure so do Mavs. It is also very safe to assume that Atlanta will not trade him for lesser players just to save a couple of million they don't really need to save, since they are well below the tax after dumping Collins. So, where is the middle ground?

[ItsGoTime]

As Gump pointed out, a big part of what they were doing was shedding cap without anything coming back. In this case, Atlanta is the one shedding cap so it’s different. I agree Holmes is negative asset, but not first round pick negative

Capela is a quality center, but he is expensive, 29 and just had a down year. He is also a guy that could get run off the court in playoffs. I don’t think his value is that high. 

An unprotected first is massive value. Something you use to land a long term piece, Not to upgrade a two year stopgap center

Why do you guys keep arguing as if the deal is just the unprotected for Capela, or just the unprotected to get off of Holmes contract or just the unprotected for getting off of McGee. It would go a long way to try and prove your point if you would argue the deal as a whole as opposed to that way. I really feel like I’m taking crazy pills here.

As far as the unprotected being worth a lot. Sure, I take into account that our team may be fully turned over in 27. I also take into account that the odds of Luka staying and our team being a top team in the west by then as a great possibility (while Luka not being here as a much lower possibility) especially if we keep him happy by bringing in guys that will help him get and stay in the top 4 teams in the conference. I think that deal does that pretty easily. After that, we have 2 picks and THJ’s AND Capela’s expiring contracts to make the team even better.

Making the best team now helps us to maintain that team as the young guys develop. I think it’s a no brainer to send out 1 unusable and 1 maybe usable player out for a highly usable player. A guy that will at the very least help us get HCA and past the first round. Past that, there will probably be other options that might be better, but that alone keeps Luka happy. As is, we probably are fighting to stay out of the play-in with a chance of losing 1 game to not make the playoffs at all. I take the most likely guaranteed playoff spot every day and twice on Sunday.

[Smitty]

A few months ago the Hawks traded 5 second round picks for Bey so his inclusion makes no sense.

Some have argued that the Mavs should be “tipped” to take on Capela’s contract. Everyone has different opinions.

[ItsGoTime]

Did you guys see the contract Brown just signed? There is a very low possibility of Luka wanting out of getting that kind of money. So, how about we put a team around him that he can be proud to sign another extension? What if OMax never develops a 3? What if Lively is a bust? What if, what if? We can stay with this team and keep the 27 and things go horribly wrong. That’s a sure-fire way to lose Luka.

You guys have covered the bad possibilities of making a Capela trade. What if you’re wrong?

[BigDirk41]

Did you guys see the contract Brown just signed? There is a very low possibility of Luka wanting out of getting that kind of money. So, how about we put a team around him that he can be proud to sign another extension? What if OMax never develops a 3? What if Lively is a bust? What if, what if? We can stay with this team and keep the 27 and things go horribly wrong. That’s a sure-fire way to lose Luka.

You guys have covered the bad possibilities of making a Capela trade. What if you’re wrong?

Luka 100% signs his next extension, but if the Mavs suck then, expect him to demand a trade the next season. He will get his money and what he wants. The Mavs have to make sure he gets what he wants here.

[mvossman]

Mavs don't need a star. They need correct role players around their stars. Instead of a plan powder scenario, always waiting for that star, Mavs should aggresively pursue correct role players.  I think the Lakers example is a good indication. They dumped 45 mil (or whatever was Westbrook salary) for 3 role players. Russel was greatly overpaid and as it later turned out, so was Beasley. So, as I have been saying for a while, look to split the 2027 pick and bring in two correct role players.

I agree Capela is not worth unprotected FRP. But as Itsgotime pointed out, we are not offering good salary in return. We are offering negative value contracts (Holmes, McGee) that run for another season. Atlanta doesn't need cap savings. Same as Dallas, they need correct players around their star. I fail to see, why they would have much interest in those salaries. They can get back-up center for vet min and he probably won't produce much less than McGee or Holmes. 

Looks like Mavs like Capela. We know he is not worth 2027 pick and I am sure so do Mavs. It is also very safe to assume that Atlanta will not trade him for lesser players just to save a couple of million they don't really need to save, since they are well below the tax after dumping Collins. So, where is the middle ground?

The original deal discussed in this thread was just Holmes for Capela straight up (assuming the trade kicker could allow that to be a match.  I'm guessing that is not the case).  There was no mention of McGee.  Throwing McGee in there does make it closer in value as Atlanta is no longer saving any cap and eating McGee contract.

Part of this does come down to what I think makes sense vs strictly value.  I have no interest in paying our very limited resources to get off a contract.  I also have no interest in sending out our most significant asset for an aging stopgap solution.  I agree that we don't need more stars, but when "aggressively pursing role players" I think that needs to be long term options like Williams.

[omahen]

Luka 100% signs his next extension, but if the Mavs suck then, expect him to demand a trade the next season. He will get his money and what he wants. The Mavs have to make sure he gets what he wants here.

Perhaps he will also get a no trade clause only to pull a clasic Beal afterwards  Lillards doesn't seem to understand he didn't sign that clause

[IamDougieFresh]

Trust me, there will come a day when the decision to move the "29 (or was it '30) UNPROTECTED pick for Kyrie will be universally hated by this community. That realization is coming at us like a Mack truck. Even if they win a championship between now and then (probably not as likely as we'd like to hope, but the hope is what's great, of course), it will STILL be annoying to watch BRK or some other team get the 4th pick that year while our Mavs have a frustrating time of it that summer, and that possibility is so much more likely than people realize.

Luka, Hardy, OMax and whoever we trade 3 firsts for next offseason will be at the height of their powers in 2029 my brother in Christ.

[omahen]

The original deal discussed in this thread was just Holmes for Capela straight up (assuming the trade kicker could allow that to be a match.  I'm guessing that is not the case).  There was no mention of McGee.  Throwing McGee in there does make it closer in value as Atlanta is no longer saving any cap and eating McGee contract.

Part of this does come down to what I think makes sense vs strictly value.  I have no interest in paying our very limited resources to get off a contract.  I also have no interest in sending out our most significant asset for an aging stopgap solution.  I agree that we don't need more stars, but when "aggressively pursing role players" I think that needs to be long term options like Williams.

I think we will never reach consensus which role player is great. None of them is perfect, each has their flaws. But it seems Mavs do like Capela. I also think he is one of the centers that should work well next to Luka. A much better version of Powell. Sure, he could be played off the floor in some situations, but that is why we have Maxi

I know original deal only has Holmes. Even with that, I don't see Atlanta even considering a straight up deal for Capela. If they did, it would already be done, imho. They don't need to trade him. He might not be perfect for them, but it is no harm if he stays there. My assumption is, that Mavs and Hawks might have agreement on the asset compensation. Seems to me they can't agree on Atlanta taking the salary needed.

[mvossman]

Did you guys see the contract Brown just signed? There is a very low possibility of Luka wanting out of getting that kind of money. So, how about we put a team around him that he can be proud to sign another extension? What if OMax never develops a 3? What if Lively is a bust? What if, what if? We can stay with this team and keep the 27 and things go horribly wrong. That’s a sure-fire way to lose Luka.

You guys have covered the bad possibilities of making a Capela trade. What if you’re wrong?

I think you either focus on next season, meaning pouring your assets into established vets (less ifs) or focusing long term (at least next 3 years) meaning you pour your assets into young pieces (more ifs).  It seems the FO believes the best way to keep Luka is going the second route.  I tend to agree assuming they can pull it off effectively, and so far I like what they have done.  That does not mean we can't short term upgrade the center position, but with the focus being 2-3 years I think its more a luxury than a necessity.

[Chicagojk]

Below is probably a more accurate representation of their roster, listed in order of who I think is least to most expendable from OKC's perspective.

PG: Micic, Wallace, Tre Mann, TyTy
SG: SGA, Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, Oladipo
SF: Giddey, Dort, Jack White
PF: Jalen Williams, Dieng, Robinson-Earl, K.Williams
Ce: Holmgren, Poku, Jaylin Williams, Garuba

Matching contract: Bertans

I would think K Williams would be rated much higher than that.  If he isn’t, we should be on him ASAP.  He is the exact type of tough guy who makes winning plays that we have targeted this summer.

The athletic reporter for OKC is on this weeks Lowe Post Podcast.  He seems to think the team wants to bring all these guys to camp and let them battle it out.  Lowe thought Garuda, JRE, Tyty and Oladipo would be 4 out of the 5 not being back.  They thought Jack White might be waived as well and out on a two way.  The reporter wondered if Garuba would stick as well.

[ItsGoTime]

Luka 100% signs his next extension, but if the Mavs suck then, expect him to demand a trade the next season. He will get his money and what he wants. The Mavs have to make sure he gets what he wants here.

Literally my point. In 2 years he signs his extension (the length of Capela’s contract and the best predictions for Lively to be ready to start). In 3 years, is he happier after playoff in HCA for the previous 2 years or possibly fighting to get into the playoffs the previous 2 seasons?

[omahen]

I think you either focus on next season, meaning pouring your assets into established vets (less ifs) or focusing long term (at least next 3 years) meaning you pour your assets into young pieces (more ifs).  It seems the FO believes the best way to keep Luka is going the second route.  I tend to agree assuming they can pull it off effectively, and so far I like what they have done.  That does not mean we can't short term upgrade the center position, but with the focus being 2-3 years I think its more a luxury than a necessity.

I think Mavs would like to do a bit of both. They did need to put some cheap developing players with potential high ceiling on the roster, that will help maintaining the contention window. But that window has to start more now than 3 years from now. I don't think Mavs can afford to have another bad season as they just did. I am not sure current roster is good enough to ensure that. I do think they should get a vet or two to safely have them in that top6 place in the west. Than you build from there the next summer and build a serious contender. 

On the other hand, I agree with the ones saying Mavs are not just one piece away. That is why trading good asset as the 2027 pick for (one) role player is a no go. Their main problem is that they don't have any expiring deals and no one really values THJ, Holmes or McGee. They will all be expiring next season and moving them than will be much easier. But, Mavs are still pressured to improve now and 2027 is the only asset to improve the team now. That is why we didn't see them do anything, imho. Will they risk it with the current team or balk a bit and pay a bit more than they are comfortable doing? Even if Mavs trade 2027, they will have 2 FRP next summer for hopefully final moves.

[ItsGoTime]

I think you either focus on next season, meaning pouring your assets into established vets (less ifs) or focusing long term (at least next 3 years) meaning you pour your assets into young pieces (more ifs).  It seems the FO believes the best way to keep Luka is going the second route.  I tend to agree assuming they can pull it off effectively, and so far I like what they have done.  That does not mean we can't short term upgrade the center position, but with the focus being 2-3 years I think its more a luxury than a necessity.

Them trying to get Capela says different than you assume. The trade I proposed helps now and in the future at the cost of 1 FRP.

[Jym]

If the season is absolutely floundering I could understand the desire to do a deal with '27 and/or young guys before the deadline, but if we're in the mix for homecourt then I think we should just run with what we have

[ItsGoTime]

An unprotected FRP and expiring THJ gets you a young Derrick White type player. That’s the type deals I’m looking for next offseason.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I'll be honest. This franchise's ability to deal and draft well makes me value that 2027 FRP a lot more. Going into this offseason I saw no value in Mavs' draft picks.

[ItsGoTime]

I'll be honest.  This franchise's ability to deal and draft well makes me value that 2027 FRP a lot more.  Going into this offseason I saw no value in Mavs' draft picks.

I think they’re valuable too.

[Scott41theMavs]

KL has discoursed quite well on the value of that '27 FRP. It seems to me that for some of you all to view it as viable to use it simply to upgrade from Holmes to Capela (even for the additional benefit of getting out of Joel's contract) indicates to me that you think that Holmes is really, really awful, verging on being as unplayable as McGee. I don't buy that. The Holmes of two years ago is not much worse a player than Clint. If such a trade does happen, I will assume the Mavs worked out Holmes and found him to be profoundly washed. But for the '27 FRP to be included in a Capela trade, we have to be getting back another rotation player as well, from where I sit.