Trade & FA 2023-24: NOP Will Not Give Ingram an Extension

[ItsGoTime]

Think it was a discussion on Discord I read about McGee, cash (for buyout) and a couple seconds to OKC for 2 players they were gonna cut anyway. I like that idea for getting off of McGee.

[SleepingHero]

I'm in agreement about it being Holmes rather than THJ who is at the core of this.  THJ is a salary match for Capela, so there is no mandate for McGee to be included and you don't "overpay" for something that you don't have to do.  But, Holmes misses being a trade match for Capela by himself by about $1,070,000.  So another salary HAS to be added and Dallas rightfully wants it to be McGee.  That will cost something.  People can debate what that something is.

We covered this ground the other day, but if Dallas sends out two salaries, they have to get back to 14 players.  Holmes/McGee outgoing (no matter where McGee ends up) for Capela incoming is a $2.9mm bump to the Mav's payroll.  We only have $4.1mm of space under the tax and it will cost ~$2mm to add a 14th body.  My squeamishness with the idea that this is as simple as wait to September and pay cash or cash + a second to someone to take McGee is this will throw Dallas $800k into the tax.  How much does Dallas lose in tax distribution for that $800k?  Is it $20mm?  Whatever it is, that is too much for Capela.  

This alone makes me think there is no chance of a Holmes+McGee deal working and it'd have to be THJ+McGee. Mavs aren't going to give up 20mil of a tax paycheck for Capela. It pays his salary for the first year.

The only other avenue would be to trade THJ to someplace for someone making about 1 mil less than him and I'm struggling to see who fits that and makes sense. And it begs the question if the Mavs are going to end up trading THJ anyways, why not just send him in the deal for Capela instead of Holmes and just avoid this tax line issue in the first place.

[F Gump]

I'm in agreement about it being Holmes rather than THJ who is at the core of this.  THJ is a salary match for Capela, so there is no mandate for McGee to be included and you don't "overpay" for something that you don't have to do.  But, Holmes misses being a trade match for Capela by himself by about $1,070,000.  So another salary HAS to be added and Dallas rightfully wants it to be McGee.  That will cost something.  People can debate what that something is.

We covered this ground the other day, but if Dallas sends out two salaries, they have to get back to 14 players.  Holmes/McGee outgoing (no matter where McGee ends up) for Capela incoming is a $2.9mm bump to the Mav's payroll.  We only have $4.1mm of space under the tax and it will cost ~$2mm to add a 14th body.  My squeamishness with the idea that this is as simple as wait to September and pay cash or cash + a second to someone to take McGee is this will throw Dallas $800k into the tax.  How much does Dallas lose in tax distribution for that $800k?  Is it $20mm?  Whatever it is, that is too much for Capela.  

So, it feels like there would need to be something else at some point.  I'm not talking about Hardy, Green or even something happening before the season starts.  But, at some point, Dallas would likely look for a way to reduce salary back below the tax line if there is some kind of Holmes/Capela based deal in September.

You make a good point, and I agree the Mavs wouldn't want to forfeit a share of tax distributions, assuming it's going to be a fairly big number. Have you seen any current estimates of what that share might look like?

Technically, the Mavs could do Holmes-McGee and still be under the tax line, by filling that 14th slot with a rookie UDFA, then never using the 15th slot.

But it would be tight enough to where that solution might still make them feel they must look for a later swap to lower the payroll to a more comfortable number, as you mention. But the fact they can be under the line, and stay under, while doing nothing could make Holmes-McGee for Capela an easier idea for them to buy into conceptually.

[F Gump]

IGT -- 
"Holmes still has his trade kicker in his contract right " -- No. That ship has sailed.

"McGee, cash (for buyout) and a couple seconds to OKC for 2 players they were gonna cut anyway" -- If this is meant as some help to a Capela trade being discussed, I'm not seeing how it helps there. If not ... 

OKC is going to cut their junkiest. I'd want to know WHICH players, but very skeptical of the value. Having more junk on Mavs roster won't help. Eating up multiple roster slots doesn't help either. Nor does paying picks for junk. It's certainly a different story if they will let go of players who are good enough to fit into Mavs rotation, but that sure seems unlikely to me.

[omahen]

IGT -- 
"Holmes still has his trade kicker in his contract right " -- No. That ship has sailed.

"McGee, cash (for buyout) and a couple seconds to OKC for 2 players they were gonna cut anyway" -- If this is meant as some help to a Capela trade being discussed, I'm not seeing how it helps there. If not ... 

OKC is going to cut their junkiest. I'd want to know WHICH players, but very skeptical of the value. Having more junk on Mavs roster won't help. Eating up multiple roster slots doesn't help either. Nor does paying picks for junk. It's certainly a different story if they will let go of players who are good enough to fit into Mavs rotation, but that sure seems unlikely to me.

After cutting Gay, OKC still has 20 players on the roster. If they cut Oladipo (almost certainly) and Bertans (he has some money owed for next year and could be a useful salary match once they start cashing in those picks), they still have to cut 3 young players on rookie deals. Bodies for end of the bench, to see if there is something. 

But, I only see this if Mavs have no other option but to dump McGee. In that case it might make more sense to take a couple of those players for end of the bench. They save OKC some money (they have to cut them otherwise), which might perhaps reduce the price of dumping McGee.

[F Gump]

After cutting Gay, OKC still has 20 players on the roster. If they cut Oladipo (almost certainly) and Bertans (he has some money owed for next year and could be a useful salary match once they start cashing in those picks), they still have to cut 3 young players on rookie deals. Bodies for end of the bench, to see if there is something. 

But, I only see this if Mavs have no other option but to dump McGee. In that case it might make more sense to take a couple of those players for end of the bench. They save OKC some money (they have to cut them otherwise), which might perhaps reduce the price of dumping McGee.

Yeah, I get the situation. But I don't see how this really is a path that saves OKC money. It's a premise of players on min or very small salary who have value, right? (Because, if it's not, how can you fit 2 into the McGee salary slot). But if they have value but almost no salary, can't OKC alternately just give them away, reducing their disposal cost to $0? 

Then there's the simple math. If DAL is doing it to reduce salary, how can OKC swap with the Mavs and reduce salary too?

If we're saying they have use for JM, yeah that's a diff story. Veteran center, traditional rim protector, lots of plus athletic traits (7', 7-6 wingspan, mobile, can jump through the roof), has won rings, great for chemistry, etc etc and maybe OKC wants to use leftovers to add one of those.

[omahen]

Holmes for Capela would be the biggest heist in league history. A starting C for a 3rd string C all because they save some money. Forgive me if I’m not in any way getting my hopes up and side with the report of “slightly overpay”.

Totally agree. Atlanta might prefer to give more minutes to Okongwu, but they can do that with Capela on the roster too. They simply play Okongwu more. Atlanta is well below the tax line since dumping Collins, so no real savings pressure too. As of now, they are 14 mil under tax line for next season. Depends how rich Okongwu and Bey extensions will be, but their long term financial situation is much better since Murray signed a very team friendly deal. If all the new management in Atlanta would do would be to trade 2 starters for basically nothing, the owner might be begging Schlenk to return in a very near future. 

I am still with my "split the 2027 pick" wish. "Half" of the pick to Atlanta for Capela (since this seems to be the most often mentioned deal) and "half" to third team for rotation level player (wing). THJ and McGee outgoing. 

Rumor was that Dallas wants to speed things up. That doesn't make sense with Holmes, as he can't be aggregated before September. Unless of course everyone is satisfied to just announce the deal and finalize it in September. 

Atlanta also doesn't really need THJ with Bogi on the roster. 

What if Atlanta would get McGee and THJ is the one going to the third team? I think Indy is the only team with cap space left and I don't see a deal there. The minimum third team would need to send to Dallas would be a bit less than 10 mil. If Mavs are willing to go up to the first apron, a deal with BKN could be possible (O'Neal plus Sharpe).

[omahen]

Yeah, I get the situation. But I don't see how this really is a path that saves OKC money. It's a premise of players on min or very small salary who have value, right? (Because, if it's not, how can you fit 2 into the McGee salary slot). But if they have value but almost no salary, can't OKC alternately just give them away, reducing their disposal cost to $0? 

Then there's the simple math. If DAL is doing it to reduce salary, how can OKC swap with the Mavs and reduce salary too?

If we're saying they have use for JM, yeah that's a diff story. Veteran center, traditional rim protector, lots of plus athletic traits (7', 7-6 wingspan, mobile, can jump through the roof), has won rings, great for chemistry, etc etc and maybe OKC wants to use leftovers to add one of those.

Yes, we are speaking about small salary players.  Of course, those guys are end of bench guys. They didn't get much minutes and mostly didn't perform well when they got the chance. But they are all very young and perhaps there is something to uncover in some of them. Mavs were once interested in Garuba. Wiggins had nice stats in his minutes. No idea if he is on the "cut" list, but his deal is not guaranteed, so less costly to cut. Robinson is sort of a stretch big. The rest of possible cut candidates are small PG and SG, don't see much interest there. 

OKC needs to dump those players. Either they cut them (it costs them money) or they trade them. Perhaps there aren't willing takers for those end of bench guys. Houston for example paid to dump Washington and Garuba. Both might be on the OKC "cut" list, both still on multiyear rookie deals and both first round picks. Atlanta than again paid OKC a SRP to take those two. And everyone knows OKC has to cut players, so unless some very interesting players would be put on the table, the bidders will likely not compete to do a service to OKC without getting paid. Imho, OKC must either cut them which costs them money, or use some minor assets to trade them. 

If OKC just takes McGee, they will have another body to cut. So, if Dallas takes two of them for McGee, OKC likely does save some money or minor assets. Dallas interest would be to have a look at some young guys, which is more valuable than looking at McGee for two more years. If of course there is someone, they see as uncovered potential.

OKC doesn't need to reduce salary. They would still be paid to take McGee. Here is what I think:

Without McGee: cut 2 players costing them roughly 5 mil
With McGee (lets say Mavs add cash and SRP): They send away those 5 mil (if not, another young player would have to be dumped), but receive 12 mil they cut. So the net cost for them is 7 mil, for which they are adequately compensated. 
With McGee, but they don't send any players to Mavs: receive 12 mil and still have to cut 5 mil worth of players. 12 mil of additional salary they cut. Would perhaps demand more than just cash and one SRP.

[omahen]

OKC is a real interesting case for dealing. They are certanly a team able to split our 2027 pick, as they have endless selection of different picks to send back. If I assume Garuba, Washington, Joe, Oladipo and Mann are their "cut list" (they keep Bertans for trade matching purpose), they still have the following depth chart and some very good prospects will not get minutes.

PG: SGA, Micic (didn't come to NBA to warm the bench), Wallace (traded up to get)
Small wings: Williams, Dort, Wiggins (plus some of PG will play the SG position), White
Big wings: Giddey, K.Williams, Poku, Dieng,
Centers: Holmgren, Williams, Robinson,
Matching contract: Bertans

So, how about this:
Mavs: Dort, Poku, another body from OKC, lottery protected future FRP
OKC: THJ, McGee, 2027 unprotected

Mavs can use Holmes and that pick for the center trade later.

[RGP1981]

OKC is a real interesting case for dealing. They are certanly a team able to split our 2027 pick, as they have endless selection of different picks to send back. If I assume Garuba, Washington, Joe, Oladipo and Mann are their "cut list" (they keep Bertans for trade matching purpose), they still have the following depth chart and some very good prospects will not get minutes.

PG: SGA, Micic (didn't come to NBA to warm the bench), Wallace (traded up to get)
Small wings: Williams, Dort, Wiggins (plus some of PG will play the SG position), White
Big wings: Giddey, K.Williams, Poku, Dieng,
Centers: Holmgren, Williams, Robinson,
Matching contract: Bertans

So, how about this:
Mavs: Dort, Poku, another body from OKC, lottery protected future FRP
OKC: THJ, McGee, 2027 unprotected

Mavs can use Holmes and that pick for the center trade later.

Below is probably a more accurate representation of their roster, listed in order of who I think is least to most expendable from OKC's perspective.

PG: Micic, Wallace, Tre Mann, TyTy
SG: SGA, Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, Oladipo
SF: Giddey, Dort, Jack White
PF: Jalen Williams, Dieng, Robinson-Earl, K.Williams
Ce: Holmgren, Poku, Jaylin Williams, Garuba

Matching contract: Bertans

[omahen]

Below is probably a more accurate representation of their roster, listed in order of who I think is least to most expendable from OKC's perspective.

PG: Micic, Wallace, Tre Mann, TyTy
SG: SGA, Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, Oladipo
SF: Giddey, Dort, Jack White
PF: Jalen Williams, Dieng, Robinson-Earl, K.Williams
Ce: Holmgren, Poku, Jaylin Williams, Garuba

Matching contract: Bertans

Isn't Jalen Williams a SG? He is listed at just 6-6, a bit small for PF. SGA was always their PG, basically sharing the duties with Giddey. PG situation will be interesting. Both Micic and Wallace are not really great shooters (nevermind Wallace stellar performance against Dallas in summer league). Tough to see any of them really fitting well next to SGA, who is very ball dominant and also not a very good shooter. SGA, Giddey, Dort and Jalen Williams were regular starters. They had a lot of fluctuation at center, but this will change now with Holmgren. 

They were actually listing Giddey as their nominal guard. So SGA and Giddey took majority of guard minutes. Now they have to fit Micic and Wallace into that. Each could get some 15 minutes, more when starters will be out. But they are both PG. Dort and Jalen Williams were nominal starting forwards. Dieng and K.Williams will get most of back-up minutes here. I think K.Williams is their glue guy and he will play 20 minutes per game. All reports say they really like him. Holmgren and Poku will take basically all center minutes. The rest will be deep bench or cut.

But, looking at this this way, it doesn't seem likely they have any interest trading Dort, unless it is for a better player. Like Williams, he is their glue guy. One could probably take as many of those other 10 guys as he wants at discount prices There won't be many minutes for them and some might look for bigger roles. Wiggins and the third Williams are most interesting, imho. Williams is shooting the ball very well at decent volume for center. But, Mavs already have a prospect center and Williams is not good enough to be a starter. Can he play a PF?

[mvossman]

On the other hand. Holmes still has his trade kicker in his contract right? That money adds to our outgoing salary too. That is just enough to make him a match for Capela. I could see Holmes and 27 unprotected for Capela. That alleviates the need to add a 3rd team.

While I share your skepticism that we can simply send Holmes for Capela, sending an unprotected first for Capela would be a wild overpay.

[ItsGoTime]

While I share your skepticism that we can simply send Holmes for Capela, sending an unprotected first for Capela would be a wild overpay.

Not when we’re also getting off of Holmes contract, not at all. Look, I have just as much hope as the rest that Holmes regains his 20-21 form here. I was with everyone that year in wanting to get him. Fact is, he hasn’t shown anything since being traded, so his value isn’t any higher than the value we traded him for, otherwise Sac would have realized that value instead of us. It’s for sure an even trade, you yourself may not want to do it, but it’s even.

[ItsGoTime]

Since Holmes isn’t a trade match and we’re dreaming up ways for McGee to be added, that is also horrible value outgoing. Maybe the trade is Holmes and our 27 unprotected going to Atl, McGee and a couple Atl seconds going to a third team and Capela coming to the Mavs, but that’s the best I can see as far as being an even trade.

[ItsGoTime]

Something like:
To Atl - Holmes and unprotected 27
To Okc - McGee and 2 SRPs from Atl
To Dal - Capela, Garuba and Wiggins

Everyone being traded has 2 years left on contract. We fill our 15 man roster with win now and later players. We also now have young filler players that can cushion the need for any of our other young guys in trade if we need a small contract (what we’ve been using McGee for in all our current deals thought up).

[mvossman]

Not when we’re also getting off of Holmes contract, not at all. Look, I have just as much hope as the rest that Holmes regains his 20-21 form here. I was with everyone that year in wanting to get him. Fact is, he hasn’t shown anything since being traded, so his value isn’t any higher than the value we traded him for, otherwise Sac would have realized that value instead of us. It’s for sure an even trade, you yourself may not want to do it, but it’s even.

As Gump pointed out, a big part of what they were doing was shedding cap without anything coming back. In this case, Atlanta is the one shedding cap so it’s different. I agree Holmes is negative asset, but not first round pick negative

Capela is a quality center, but he is expensive, 29 and just had a down year. He is also a guy that could get run off the court in playoffs. I don’t think his value is that high. 

An unprotected first is massive value. Something you use to land a long term piece, Not to upgrade a two year stopgap center

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

"Just say NO to trading 2027 for a non-star!!"

[KillerLeft]

Not when we’re also getting off of Holmes contract, not at all. Look, I have just as much hope as the rest that Holmes regains his 20-21 form here. I was with everyone that year in wanting to get him. Fact is, he hasn’t shown anything since being traded, so his value isn’t any higher than the value we traded him for, otherwise Sac would have realized that value instead of us. It’s for sure an even trade, you yourself may not want to do it, but it’s even.

I think you're underestimating the value of that '27 relative to a garden-variety late first rounder given up by a top 10 team in the league. To me, that pick is worth maybe 3 of those, due to almost no protections being possible, and due to the FACT that the entire structure of the Mavs roster will be drastically different (meaning unknown) by then. 

Kyrie will almost certainly be gone. Will Luka still be here? Will ANY of the current role players still be here? 

I'm not opposed to spending it in the right deal, but to use it for a stop gap center when you just used another pick to draft one would be insane. 

I would definitely spend "a first" for Capela if the team was in position to do so. He's worth more than Christian Wood was last year, for comparison. It's just that they find themselves in the situation where THAT first is the only one they can move. To me, that means the pendulum needs to swing to the stingier side, not to the devil may care side.

[KillerLeft]

Trust me, there will come a day when the decision to move the "29 (or was it '30) UNPROTECTED pick for Kyrie will be universally hated by this community. That realization is coming at us like a Mack truck. Even if they win a championship between now and then (probably not as likely as we'd like to hope, but the hope is what's great, of course), it will STILL be annoying to watch BRK or some other team get the 4th pick that year while our Mavs have a frustrating time of it that summer, and that possibility is so much more likely than people realize.

[Smitty]

Hawks - Siakam, Otto Porter Jr, McGee (+571k Cap)

Raptors - Hunter, Bufkin, [SnT 16M] PJ Washington, ‘24 ATL FRP (-4M Cap)

Mavs - Capela, [TPE] S. Bey (+1.5M Cap)

Hornets - THJ, ‘25 DAL SRP (+9.8M Cap)

Thoughts?