Trade & FA 2023-24: OKC The Favorite For Nic Claxton Should He Leave BRK

[loki]

Won’t we be in the tax next year if we re-sign Kyrie to a max deal? If we’re in the tax we cannot accept a player in a sign and trade.

The apron is what they have to stay under to accept someone in a sign and trade. They can still be a taxpayer. That gives them another $7m or so to play with.

[Mavsfan7]

The apron is what they have to stay under to accept someone in a sign and trade. They can still be a taxpayer. That gives them another $7m or so to play with.

Got it. How far under the apron would we be with Kyrie on a max and Powell back at $6 million?

[MarkAguirreWrathofGod]

Interesting https://hoopshype.com/2023/02/11/free-ag...th-klutch/

[loki]

Got it. How far under the apron would we be with Kyrie on a max and Powell back at $6 million?

Only enough to fill out the roster with minimum salaries, if that.

[MFFL]

Everyone keeps ignoring me when I say, "Butler."

He is kinda abrasive. Which is acceptable when you are a dominant player but not so much when you are declining.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Well another advantage for Grant there is he would be a free agent, so the cost would mainly be what's required to make a S&T work.

How is that different from Kuzma's PO?

[BigDirk41]

Mavs are the front runners to sign Terrance Ross

---

I don't know how to share anything, but just got the alert on ESPN

[omahen]

Interesting https://hoopshype.com/2023/02/11/free-ag...th-klutch/

Klutch is somehow "stealing" all FA to be. I am sure every other agent agent is extremely happy about it

[DanSchwartzgan]

Won’t we be in the tax next year if we re-sign Kyrie to a max deal? If we’re in the tax we cannot accept a player in a sign and trade.

Loki is right...the apron is the limiting factor in some versions of what might happen.  It is less limiting in others.  The areas that matter are the use of exceptions and Sign and Trades.  So, if the plan is to trade for OG, Siakam or Ayton, these are not S&T's and the Apron isn't a factor.  BTW, Bobby K mentioned liking Ayton yesterday and said Windhorst is really pushing the idea the Mav's still want him.  If the target is Grant, that is a S&T and now you have an issue.  I like Grant here, but trading for him means you are hard capped and limited in the exceptions you get.  Grant may also present BYC issues.

I'm not at the point where I'm entertaining versions of the future where Irving doesn't return (those versions would have him leaving via S&T anyway, so cap space isn't an option in my mind).  If you pay Irving his max and only account for players who are under contract, you are at ~$158.5mm for 9 players and 3 holds.  That is about $3.5mm under the tax and about $9.5mm under the Apron.  The taxpayer MLE is $7mm and you don't have Powell or Wood accounted for yet.  Are there ways to improve that?

One is S/W Bertans.  This saves $12.6mm.  I brought this  possibility up MONTHS ago.

I also wonder if Kyrie might sign for a discount.  Maybe Luka's money rather than the 35% max he's entitled to.  Kind of a Harden deal.  Maybe you give him whatever he wants in terms of other aspects of the deal like a PO of his choosing.  That gets you almost $7mm more.  

Putting this all together, I see three paths...(assumes Kyrie stays)

1.  Go for the Grant S&T (or any other S&T).  I started to write this up in more detail, but it is a lot.  It wouldn't be easy to pull this off and keep a center and use the TPMLE.  You probably have to send out THJ and another keeper (like Maxi or Reggie...not S&T Wood or S&T Powell) as salary filler.

2.  Go for a big dollar player who isn't a Free Agent (maybe Siakam or Ayton or fill in your own name).  The Apron isn't an issue here, but you may be limited to the TPMLE even with the Bertans S/W (all calculations from here presume that S/W).  My presumption is you'd deal THJ and would need about $12mm more to get to Siakam or $8mm more to get to Ayton.  If you use THJ plus a S&T like Powell or Wood, you are well into the tax.    It could also be THJ/Maxi/Hardy and picks.  Then, you are under the tax by almost $7mm on Siakam and a little over $12mm if the target is Ayton.  Yes, there is a path to Ayton, staying under the tax and using the Full MLE on a player (but Powell and Wood are gone and were not used in a S&T)  

3.  The numbers get easier if if we target a player who makes very similar to what we are sending out (thinking THJ and OG as the example here along with a Bertans S/W).  This would allow you to use the full MLE and still be about $6mm under the tax since you aren't using the 125% trade leverage.  Maybe you use that $6mm to bring back Powell and one more minimum or use the BAE and one more minimum guy to get to 14.  It doesn't have to be OG, just someone worthy of draft capital who makes similar to whatever non S&T player we send out.

Both #2 and #3 get pretty tight.  It would be REALLY helpful if Kyrie would take a discount on his $46.9mm.  I'd love to hear he's been signed at the opening of free agency and then find out the number is flexible (like Dirk used to do).  Let the team work out whatever trade they want (or even better, do it at the draft).  Let them work out who and how much they spend on an exception and any other returning players and then Kyrie gets the number needed to keep us under the tax or apron depending on which scenario we are doing.

Sorry so long, but I was kind of working this out as I wrote.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Grant's rebounding is concerning.

[loki]

Lots of good thoughts, Dan.

It makes a lot of sense to avoid the S&T if possible. My concern would be that the asking price for an impact player under contract may still be sky high. Teams were apparently offering 3 1sts for OG and 4 1sts for Bridges at the deadline and that wasn't enough to close the deal. Dallas can't match an offer like that unless they put Green on the table.

With a S&T you at least have some leverage in that the player could walk, even if it's only to some 3rd team. The 2 1sts Dallas can offer go from a subpar offer to pretty enticing when you think your guy is a goner. If the Mavs are able to pull off the right deal it may make filling out the roster more difficult, but I would prioritize locking in that true 2-way wing and worry about the rest later. Even if that requires one more offseason to truly assemble Voltron. As a last resort the Bertans S/W idea could at least allow you to fill out the bench.

The Kyrie discount idea is interesting but a little scary. Unless they are 100% sure he's on board, I wouldn't do anything that makes him feel my commitment is wavering. After all, they've got a title to win before the implosion can happen.

[Jason Terry]

The more i think about it, the less i want to go all in on another superstar. Most of these superteams make that mistake. They empty everything out and there’s no depth or young players anymore. I think Luka and Kyrie is enough. Even if one of them go down. I’m fine with spending the picks, but I’m not trading Green/Hardy

[Scott41theMavs]

Dan, you are an extremely valuable contributor to this board.

[KillerLeft]

The more i think about it, the less i want to go all in on another superstar. Most of these superteams make that mistake. They empty everything out and there’s no depth or young players anymore. I think Luka and Kyrie is enough. Even if one of them go down. I’m fine with spending the picks, but I’m not trading Green/Hardy

That’s good, because they will never again have enough to trade for another superstar, regardless of whether or not Kyrie works here.

[Scott41theMavs]

The Kyrie discount idea is interesting but a little scary. Unless they are 100% sure he's on board, I wouldn't do anything that makes him feel my commitment is wavering. After all, they've got a title to win before the implosion can happen.

So this... unless we win this year. I think that whets Kyrie's appetite for more rings, as well as proving to him that, if we won with an unbalanced roster, how much more could we win with more talent?

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

So curious if the Nets just turn around and try to trade DFS this offseason now that they have nothing but wings. Would be funny to just trade Hardaway and a pick to get Finney back.

The OG cost would be Hardaway/Hardy and both picks most likely based on Masai saying he wanted a proven prospect with picks. I think he made a mistake turning down all those picks because OGs value will be less as an expiring deal.

[Scott41theMavs]

That’s good, because they will never again have enough to trade for another superstar, regardless of whether or not Kyrie works here.

Oh, I don't know. I think that two firsts, a second, and three pick swaps could get you back a pretty good player. Maybe not 10-best in the league, but certainly in that 15-30 range.

[cow]

The more i think about it, the less i want to go all in on another superstar. Most of these superteams make that mistake. They empty everything out and there’s no depth or young players anymore. I think Luka and Kyrie is enough. Even if one of them go down. I’m fine with spending the picks, but I’m not trading Green/Hardy

I'm not so rigid about the level of player.  Unlikely to happen again, but you can already see the dynamic of the team changing with Kyrie's talent.  With you on Green and Hardy being untouchable.

[Jason Terry]

Loki is right...the apron is the limiting factor in some versions of what might happen.  It is less limiting in others.  The areas that matter are the use of exceptions and Sign and Trades.  So, if the plan is to trade for OG, Siakam or Ayton, these are not S&T's and the Apron isn't a factor.  BTW, Bobby K mentioned liking Ayton yesterday and said Windhorst is really pushing the idea the Mav's still want him.  If the target is Grant, that is a S&T and now you have an issue.  I like Grant here, but trading for him means you are hard capped and limited in the exceptions you get.  Grant may also present BYC issues.

I'm not at the point where I'm entertaining versions of the future where Irving doesn't return (those versions would have him leaving via S&T anyway, so cap space isn't an option in my mind).  If you pay Irving his max and only account for players who are under contract, you are at ~$158.5mm for 9 players and 3 holds.  That is about $3.5mm under the tax and about $9.5mm under the Apron.  The taxpayer MLE is $7mm and you don't have Powell or Wood accounted for yet.  Are there ways to improve that?

One is S/W Bertans.  This saves $12.6mm.  I brought this  possibility up MONTHS ago.

I also wonder if Kyrie might sign for a discount.  Maybe Luka's money rather than the 35% max he's entitled to.  Kind of a Harden deal.  Maybe you give him whatever he wants in terms of other aspects of the deal like a PO of his choosing.  That gets you almost $7mm more.  

Putting this all together, I see three paths...(assumes Kyrie stays)

1.  Go for the Grant S&T (or any other S&T).  I started to write this up in more detail, but it is a lot.  It wouldn't be easy to pull this off and keep a center and use the TPMLE.  You probably have to send out THJ and another keeper (like Maxi or Reggie...not S&T Wood or S&T Powell) as salary filler.

2.  Go for a big dollar player who isn't a Free Agent (maybe Siakam or Ayton or fill in your own name).  The Apron isn't an issue here, but you may be limited to the TPMLE even with the Bertans S/W (all calculations from here presume that S/W).  My presumption is you'd deal THJ and would need about $12mm more to get to Siakam or $8mm more to get to Ayton.  If you use THJ plus a S&T like Powell or Wood, you are well into the tax.    It could also be THJ/Maxi/Hardy and picks.  Then, you are under the tax by almost $7mm on Siakam and a little over $12mm if the target is Ayton.  Yes, there is a path to Ayton, staying under the tax and using the Full MLE on a player (but Powell and Wood are gone and were not used in a S&T)  

3.  The numbers get easier if if we target a player who makes very similar to what we are sending out (thinking THJ and OG as the example here along with a Bertans S/W).  This would allow you to use the full MLE and still be about $6mm under the tax since you aren't using the 125% trade leverage.  Maybe you use that $6mm to bring back Powell and one more minimum or use the BAE and one more minimum guy to get to 14.  It doesn't have to be OG, just someone worthy of draft capital who makes similar to whatever non S&T player we send out.

Both #2 and #3 get pretty tight.  It would be REALLY helpful if Kyrie would take a discount on his $46.9mm.  I'd love to hear he's been signed at the opening of free agency and then find out the number is flexible (like Dirk used to do).  Let the team work out whatever trade they want (or even better, do it at the draft).  Let them work out who and how much they spend on an exception and any other returning players and then Kyrie gets the number needed to keep us under the tax or apron depending on which scenario we are doing.

Sorry so long, but I was kind of working this out as I wrote.

So on the stretch waive of Bertans……..that would be his next year salary plus the full PO the following year. Would it be possible to wait to stretch waive him until he’s under the games played threshold and waive him mid-season and only pay the partial guarantee from his PO? 

Or would that have to wait until the offseason? 

Also i wonder if tanking teams would view his contract as expiring if we include cash for the PO buyout

[Jason Terry]

So curious if the Nets just turn around and try to trade DFS this offseason now that they have nothing but wings. Would be funny to just trade Hardaway and a pick to get Finney back.

The OG cost would be Hardaway/Hardy and both picks most likely based on Masai saying he wanted a proven prospect with picks. I think he made a mistake turning down all those picks because OGs value will be less as an expiring deal.

Honestly, trading Hardaway and a FRP for DFS and I’m good. I’d rather have Doe than Ayton. I don’t think we need much help anyways. Grant to me should be on the high end of our wish list