Trade & FA 2023-24: Stein-Ingram Trade Inevitable| LAL Want Lebron Back On Any Terms

[Smitty]

On top of what KL said, he is a significantly better rebounder especially on the offensive side. At their respective peaks, Holmes scored 12 ppg while Capela scored 15. Some significant (in very important places for this team) differences and some marginal ones makes it a huge difference IMO.

Now do Dwight Powell

[ItsGoTime]

At his peak, Capela got 12 votes for all defensive team and 24 votes for all NBA. That is significantly better than Holmes (and Powell).

[mvossman]

On top of what KL said, he is a significantly better rebounder especially on the offensive side. At their respective peaks, Holmes scored 12 ppg while Capela scored 15. Some significant (in very important places for this team) differences and some marginal ones makes it a huge difference IMO.

Per 36 they are scoring less than a point different while Holmes has a better TS and an actual midrange game with his push shot.  Capela is the better rebounder and the better player, I just don't think they are as far apart as advertised.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

With respect, I disagree in a major way. You're an advanced stats guy, so I'm wouldn't be surprised if you have something to back up this opinion, but imo it would work as an argument for abandoning advanced stats altogether (tongue in cheek). Capela, whatever we think he's still got left, was a FINE defender during the end of his Rockets tenure. One of the best in the game - a difference maker. 

I like Holmes, but have never thought of him as a difference maker on either end.

This.  I can't take seriously anyone comparing Holmes with Capela, even during Holmes' most productive 2 year stint.  My hope for Holmes is that he gives us 20mins, 6pts, 6rbs, and plays decent team defense.  Capela would be much more impactful.

But how impactful?  Let's skip to the playoffs.  We can't have Capela on the floor to end games given hacka-Clint.  He can't defend in space.  IMO his value will be eating up minutes at C in the regular season to bolster our record.

So what is he worth to us?  McGee.  Holmes.  Maybe THJ.   Nothing that ATL would want.

[ItsGoTime]

Per 36 they are scoring less than a point different while Holmes has a better TS and an actual midrange game with his push shot.  Capela is the better rebounder and the better player, I just don't think they are as far apart as advertised.

Are you using the 20-21 stats or career numbers? If 20-21, they had a difference of 1 mpg played between them, so no reason to really look at per36. If career, it speaks volumes that Capela has been able to do it for a much longer period of time. In that 20-21 season Cap was also 1.1 blocks more/game and 6 rpg (say what you will about counting stats, that significant of a difference can’t be explained away). On top of being a much better defender. 

I’ll take the oreb putbacks in lieu of the push shot, that is much more demoralizing to the other team in a game (kinda like Looney and Zubac have been against us in the playoffs). 

Yes, the FT% disparity is significant (the only stat between the two where it actually favors Holmes) and is the reason he can only be played in spot minutes at the end of games. We have Maxi and GWill (and probably at some point OMax) to get us to the finish line after Cap has set the team up to win.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Per 36 they are scoring less than a point different while Holmes has a better TS and an actual midrange game with his push shot.  Capela is the better rebounder and the better player, I just don't think they are as far apart as advertised.

OK?   What's the point?  So Holmes isn't shitty in your view as he is in others' views?

[mvossman]

OK?   What's the point?  So Holmes isn't shitty in your view as he is in others' views?

This whole conversation has been about how much asset its worth to upgrade from Holmes to Capela.  I would argue that the size of the gap between their on court value would be a crucial factor in that assessment.  I think they are less far apart than others think, which is why I am less willing to spend big assets on Capela.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

This whole conversation has been about how much asset its worth to upgrade from Holmes to Capela.  I would argue that the size of the gap between their on court value would be a crucial factor in that assessment.  I think they are less far apart than others think, which is why I am less willing to spend big assets on Capela.

Why is the convo Holmes vs Capela, as opposed to just Capela and what he can do for us?  I highly doubt ATL sees any value in Holmes, so it's not like we'd be trading them for each other.  IMO, Capela's worth doesn't get more than McGee, Holmes, and maybe THJ.  No way ATL moves him for that crap.  Absolutely no picks or kids.  IMO, the 27FRP has the value of then OMax now.  I'm not trading OMax for Capela.

[mvossman]

With respect, I disagree in a major way. You're an advanced stats guy, so I'm wouldn't be surprised if you have something to back up this opinion, but imo it would work as an argument for abandoning advanced stats altogether (tongue in cheek). Capela, whatever we think he's still got left, was a FINE defender during the end of his Rockets tenure. One of the best in the game - a difference maker. 

I like Holmes, but have never thought of him as a difference maker on either end.

Maybe I am misremembering, but I thought Capela struggled in the playoffs in his late Houston days.  I seem to remember there some thought that he was getting run off the court against 5 out and that is part of the reason they traded him.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Y'all, I will be routing for Holmes to have a bounce back season, but SAC had to give up a FRP for us to take on his contract. That is his current value: a negative FRP. Let's not make him out to be what he's not and set him up for failure with ridiculous expectations.

[ItsGoTime]

This whole conversation has been about how much asset its worth to upgrade from Holmes to Capela.  I would argue that the size of the gap between their on court value would be a crucial factor in that assessment.  I think they are less far apart than others think, which is why I am less willing to spend big assets on Capela.

All of these discussions are fully projection estimates on Holmes. With Cap, he’s shown for a much longer period of time that he is capable of realizing the predictions. That is also worth much more to me.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Maybe I am misremembering, but I thought Capela struggled in the playoffs in his late Houston days.  I seem to remember there some thought that he was getting run off the court against 5 out and that is part of the reason they traded him.

Nope.  You are remembering correctly.  HOU moved him because he couldn't stay on the court in D'Antoni's offense.  Could he fit in better here with Luka's deliberate pace?  Given his age and decline, I don't think so.

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[Ghost of Podkolzin]

All of these discussions are fully projection estimates on Holmes. With Cap, he’s shown for a much longer period of time that he is capable of realizing the predictions. That is also worth much more to me.

Is Capela going to play the final 5 minutes in playoff games?

[dirkfansince1998]

Nope.  You are remembering correctly.  HOU moved him because he couldn't stay on the court in D'Antoni's offense.  Could he fit in better here with Luka's deliberate pace?  Given his age and decline, I don't think so.

If he couldn´t play next to Harden he isn´t a fit next to Luka. As much as some fans dislike the comparisation Luka is trending in the same direction. Less pick and roll more iso ball.

[mvossman]

Why is the convo Holmes vs Capela, as opposed to just Capela and what he can do for us?  I highly doubt ATL sees any value in Holmes, so it's not like we'd be trading them for each other.  IMO, Capela's worth doesn't get more than McGee, Holmes, and maybe THJ.  No way ATL moves him for that crap.  Absolutely no picks or kids.  IMO, the 27FRP has the value of then OMax now.  I'm not trading OMax for Capela.

This conversation was based on a trade involving Capela for Holmes.  Atlanta does it because they are saving 6 mil and getting a backup center plus whatever assets we are sending.

You clearly don't value Capela as others, so from that standpoint Holmes value wound not matter because you are not trading for Capela regardless.

The 27 pick has more value than Omax.  Omax was a 24 pick.  That 27 has reasonable potential to be lottery.  Teams could easily convince themselves that there is a good chance Luka bolts and we are a bottom feeder by 27.  Picks in general are more valuable than the player recently picked because they represent more possibilities.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

If he couldn´t play next to Harden he isn´t a fit next to Luka. As much as some fans dislike the comparisation Luka is trending in the same direction. Less pick and roll more iso ball.

Agreed on both points.

[mvossman]

All of these discussions are fully projection estimates on Holmes. With Cap, he’s shown for a much longer period of time that he is capable of realizing the predictions. That is also worth much more to me.

This is true.  Holmes had 2 really good years, and Capela most of his career.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

This conversation was based on a trade involving Capela for Holmes.  Atlanta does it because they are saving 6 mil and getting a backup center plus whatever assets we are sending.

You clearly don't value Capela as others, so from that standpoint Holmes value wound not matter because you are not trading for Capela regardless.

The 27 pick has more value than Omax.  Omax was a 24 pick.  That 27 has reasonable potential to be lottery.  Teams could easily convince themselves that there is a good chance Luka bolts and we are a bottom feeder by 27.  Picks in general are more valuable than the player recently picked because they represent more possibilities.

ATL is not taking Holmes at $12m/year.  His worth is -$9m.  They have a younger backup C in Fernandez at $10m less.

IMO, the Capela discussion is silly...  and Holmes is a vet min player at this point, making his value -$12m.  I hope he turns that around.

[mvossman]

Y'all, I will be routing for Holmes to have a bounce back season, but SAC had to give up a FRP for us to take on his contract.  That is his current value: a negative FRP.  Let's not make him out to be what he's not and set him up for failure with ridiculous expectations.

As Gump pointed out, that is not really accurate.  A big part of that was being able to trade him away without taking any salary back.  They dumped 24 mil off their cap sheet.  That has value regardless of the player.  Holmes is negative value, but if you were trading him for a neutral asset with similar contract, it should not require a first to do it.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Smoke on the J.Allen front. Valanciunas would also be a nice 1 year solution at C. I find it interesting that NOP aren't considering Capela.

https://theathletic.com/4725315/2023/07/...offseason/