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[Jason Terry]

I thought I’d look at the numbers more closely for this summer.  We sit right on the tax for next season and still need to add at least 2 players, so it is very likely we will be a taxpayer again next season.  The first apron is currently projected to be $178.6mm and Dallas has $171mm of salary committed to 12 players.  We have a second rounder which gets us to 13 players and we’d be just over $172mm.  The TPMLE is $5.25mm, so we can spend that and have 14 players and still be under the first apron at about $177.4.  We’d be about $1.2mm under the first apron, but the cap estimate for next year has been coming down, so we need some margin of error.

Part of my bring “back the band prediction” is based on where we currently sit.  In a world with 3 two-way guys, teams can carry 14 and be just fine.  I think it would be wise for Dallas to stay under the first apron, but going over isn’t the end of the world.  Yes, you could do two minimums instead of one TP-MLE guy, but the presumption is you can get a better player with $5mm than you can with $2mm.  I presume that player who gets the TPMLE will be DJJ, but it doesn’t have to be.  It can be any free agent who will take that amount.  We will carry a $4.9mm TPE until 7/8, so as long as we stay under the first apron, we can bring in a S&T player into that exception instead of using the TPMLE.  Or, we can trade match someone and use some of the space under the first apron as long as we don’t cross the line.

There are three issues that arise if you cross the line.

1.  You can’t sign players who are waived if they make over the MLE
2.  You can only trade match up to 100% of outgoing salary
3.  You can’t S&T for someone if it takes you over the line.

I can’t say with certainty that we won’t cross the line.  For instance, you could trade THJ for someone making $5-$6mm above what THJ makes and snuggle up right below the line and then use the TP-MLE (or the TPE on a trade that isn’t a S&T) to go over.  It just seems logical that they will keep their powder dry.  I think it’s more likely that if they make a trade, it will come at the TDL. One note, in the summer of 25, THJ, Hardy and Exum are free agents and Kyrie has a PO.  That is a lot to manage and I could see Dallas wanting more certainty heading into that offseason.  

In the summer of 26, the only sure things are Lively, Green and OMax.  Luka’s PO will have been handled prior to that, but PJ and Gafford’s contract expirations line up with the summer Maxi and Powell and Kyrie’s run out (if he takes his PO).  There is a world where we try to get well below the cap that summer.  Not counting cap holds, we have $90mm in space in a summer where SGA, Fox, Tatum, JJJ, and Mikal Bridges are UFA’s.  It is hard to imagine those guys won’t get locked up before that, so plan powder doesn’t seem like a good idea the way extensions work these days.  But, it is interesting that almost the entire roster is free at the same time.

It’s all so much fun to think about 

So, basically summer 2024 and TDL 2025 we bring back the same team. The exception being that if we really want to upgrade we could use THJ as outgoing and take back whatever amount works with BYC 

Summer of 2025 we will have had 2 postseasons with this team. If it goes well we could add/upgrade. If it goes poorly we could move off of expiring Kyrie if needed. Assuming it goes well though, Kyrie accepts the PO and with Luka’s blessing could also get an extension. I don’t see Hardy making it to this point. Hardaway can expire if we still have him. That would leave us with Exum needing a new deal (if he’s still producing) and we could replace THJ with a full MLE player. 

Summer of 2026 is the big one. Like you say, it’s a blank slate. 3 postseasons will have occurred with this squad by then. Luka has his extension decision. What’s so perfect is that if Luka can’t win with who we currently have then he can start recruiting players to join him summer of 2026. He has enough gravity to get other players to line up their contract with him. We have the space to accommodate whoever he wants…..and if we win with the current guys we can cherry pick who to keep and who to let go. It’s a perfect reset moment that gives Luka maximum flexibility