MAVS NEWS: Luka Is Hurt, But is Trudging On | DLive's Mom Passes Away| Maxi OUT

[omahen]

I thought I’d look at the numbers more closely for this summer.  We sit right on the tax for next season and still need to add at least 2 players, so it is very likely we will be a taxpayer again next season.  The first apron is currently projected to be $178.6mm and Dallas has $171mm of salary committed to 12 players.  We have a second rounder which gets us to 13 players and we’d be just over $172mm.  The TPMLE is $5.25mm, so we can spend that and have 14 players and still be under the first apron at about $177.4.  We’d be about $1.2mm under the first apron, but the cap estimate for next year has been coming down, so we need some margin of error.

Part of my bring “back the band prediction” is based on where we currently sit.  In a world with 3 two-way guys, teams can carry 14 and be just fine.  I think it would be wise for Dallas to stay under the first apron, but going over isn’t the end of the world.  Yes, you could do two minimums instead of one TP-MLE guy, but the presumption is you can get a better player with $5mm than you can with $2mm.  I presume that player who gets the TPMLE will be DJJ, but it doesn’t have to be.  It can be any free agent who will take that amount.  We will carry a $4.9mm TPE until 7/8, so as long as we stay under the first apron, we can bring in a S&T player into that exception instead of using the TPMLE.  Or, we can trade match someone and use some of the space under the first apron as long as we don’t cross the line.

There are three issues that arise if you cross the line.

1.  You can’t sign players who are waived if they make over the MLE
2.  You can only trade match up to 100% of outgoing salary
3.  You can’t S&T for someone if it takes you over the line.

I can’t say with certainty that we won’t cross the line.  For instance, you could trade THJ for someone making $5-$6mm above what THJ makes and snuggle up right below the line and then use the TP-MLE (or the TPE on a trade that isn’t a S&T) to go over.  It just seems logical that they will keep their powder dry.  I think it’s more likely that if they make a trade, it will come at the TDL. One note, in the summer of 25, THJ, Hardy and Exum are free agents and Kyrie has a PO.  That is a lot to manage and I could see Dallas wanting more certainty heading into that offseason.  

In the summer of 26, the only sure things are Lively, Green and OMax.  Luka’s PO will have been handled prior to that, but PJ and Gafford’s contract expirations line up with the summer Maxi and Powell and Kyrie’s run out (if he takes his PO).  There is a world where we try to get well below the cap that summer.  Not counting cap holds, we have $90mm in space in a summer where SGA, Fox, Tatum, JJJ, and Mikal Bridges are UFA’s.  It is hard to imagine those guys won’t get locked up before that, so plan powder doesn’t seem like a good idea the way extensions work these days.  But, it is interesting that almost the entire roster is free at the same time.

A very good text. A lot depends imho on the result of this season. If the result is good but not title level good, it would make sense to aggresively look for improvement. A lot also depends on Kyrie. If he wants to stay on a reasonable deal (reasonable being similar money he is paid now), than the plan is relatively simple. If Kyrie future is uncertain, than you have to plan for that and there are several possible outcomes.

As you said, Exum, Irving, Hardy and THJ are the teams decision for next season. It would probably make sense to extend Irving for at least one year or Mavs will be facing a risk of him walking next summer. In any case, the probably most favourable outcome is that he stays beyond next season. Everything else makes planning far more complicated.

Exum and Hardy are a luxury to have. They will be extremely cheap next season and Mavs can probably move the decision to resign them for next summer. If Exum accepts up to what early bird rights allow it is great. Hardy will also get an increase but probably not high. Those two guys allows them to get their salaries just below the second apron. 

THJ is imho still the odd man out. His offense is likely a luxury as the current team is constructed and the way Green has been playing lately. Even with Exum out his minutes have decreased lately and would likely further decrease when he returns. He is also 31 and not sure how much sense it has to sign another deal with him. I would look to upgrade him in the next season with a two way player. Depending on the position of this player, we can combine THJ salary with either of Green, PJ or Maxi. I think it is really to early to tell if the goal would be to add, decrease or keep the level of salaries with this deal. My main goal would be to get the right player, as Mavs have enough financial flexibility to not be really bothered. 

So my move to upgrade would be to find a trade for a two-way guy for THJ expiring and whatever else is needed, depending on the quality and salary of the player coming in. I would look for that deal aggresively in the summer, but they can also afford to wait till TDL. 

Beyond 2025 it all imho depend on Kyrie situation and results in 2024 and 2025. Many possible scenarios. Too many for me to go through all of them