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[Jym]

The good thing about Exum is we will have his full bird rights i believe after his contract is up. So, we could go over the tax and apron to sign him 

Im with you. Adding 1 or 2 developmental players would be a good move. Lawson plus a 2nd rounder would be great

Only get the early bird rights after 2 years. Could go over the cap to sign him for around 5.5 mil starting first year

[mvossman]

The good thing about Exum is we will have his full bird rights i believe after his contract is up. So, we could go over the tax and apron to sign him 

Im with you. Adding 1 or 2 developmental players would be a good move. Lawson plus a 2nd rounder would be great

Technically early bird.  I think that would allow us to go over apron, but max we could pay is a little below MLE.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I thought I’d look at the numbers more closely for this summer.  We sit right on the tax for next season and still need to add at least 2 players, so it is very likely we will be a taxpayer again next season.  The first apron is currently projected to be $178.6mm and Dallas has $171mm of salary committed to 12 players.  We have a second rounder which gets us to 13 players and we’d be just over $172mm.  The TPMLE is $5.25mm, so we can spend that and have 14 players and still be under the first apron at about $177.4.  We’d be about $1.2mm under the first apron, but the cap estimate for next year has been coming down, so we need some margin of error.

Part of my bring “back the band prediction” is based on where we currently sit.  In a world with 3 two-way guys, teams can carry 14 and be just fine.  I think it would be wise for Dallas to stay under the first apron, but going over isn’t the end of the world.  Yes, you could do two minimums instead of one TP-MLE guy, but the presumption is you can get a better player with $5mm than you can with $2mm.  I presume that player who gets the TPMLE will be DJJ, but it doesn’t have to be.  It can be any free agent who will take that amount.  We will carry a $4.9mm TPE until 7/8, so as long as we stay under the first apron, we can bring in a S&T player into that exception instead of using the TPMLE.  Or, we can trade match someone and use some of the space under the first apron as long as we don’t cross the line.

There are three issues that arise if you cross the line.

1.  You can’t sign players who are waived if they make over the MLE
2.  You can only trade match up to 100% of outgoing salary
3.  You can’t S&T for someone if it takes you over the line.

I can’t say with certainty that we won’t cross the line.  For instance, you could trade THJ for someone making $5-$6mm above what THJ makes and snuggle up right below the line and then use the TP-MLE (or the TPE on a trade that isn’t a S&T) to go over.  It just seems logical that they will keep their powder dry.  I think it’s more likely that if they make a trade, it will come at the TDL. One note, in the summer of 25, THJ, Hardy and Exum are free agents and Kyrie has a PO.  That is a lot to manage and I could see Dallas wanting more certainty heading into that offseason.  

In the summer of 26, the only sure things are Lively, Green and OMax.  Luka’s PO will have been handled prior to that, but PJ and Gafford’s contract expirations line up with the summer Maxi and Powell and Kyrie’s run out (if he takes his PO).  There is a world where we try to get well below the cap that summer.  Not counting cap holds, we have $90mm in space in a summer where SGA, Fox, Tatum, JJJ, and Mikal Bridges are UFA’s.  It is hard to imagine those guys won’t get locked up before that, so plan powder doesn’t seem like a good idea the way extensions work these days.  But, it is interesting that almost the entire roster is free at the same time.

[omahen]

I thought I’d look at the numbers more closely for this summer.  We sit right on the tax for next season and still need to add at least 2 players, so it is very likely we will be a taxpayer again next season.  The first apron is currently projected to be $178.6mm and Dallas has $171mm of salary committed to 12 players.  We have a second rounder which gets us to 13 players and we’d be just over $172mm.  The TPMLE is $5.25mm, so we can spend that and have 14 players and still be under the first apron at about $177.4.  We’d be about $1.2mm under the first apron, but the cap estimate for next year has been coming down, so we need some margin of error.

Part of my bring “back the band prediction” is based on where we currently sit.  In a world with 3 two-way guys, teams can carry 14 and be just fine.  I think it would be wise for Dallas to stay under the first apron, but going over isn’t the end of the world.  Yes, you could do two minimums instead of one TP-MLE guy, but the presumption is you can get a better player with $5mm than you can with $2mm.  I presume that player who gets the TPMLE will be DJJ, but it doesn’t have to be.  It can be any free agent who will take that amount.  We will carry a $4.9mm TPE until 7/8, so as long as we stay under the first apron, we can bring in a S&T player into that exception instead of using the TPMLE.  Or, we can trade match someone and use some of the space under the first apron as long as we don’t cross the line.

There are three issues that arise if you cross the line.

1.  You can’t sign players who are waived if they make over the MLE
2.  You can only trade match up to 100% of outgoing salary
3.  You can’t S&T for someone if it takes you over the line.

I can’t say with certainty that we won’t cross the line.  For instance, you could trade THJ for someone making $5-$6mm above what THJ makes and snuggle up right below the line and then use the TP-MLE (or the TPE on a trade that isn’t a S&T) to go over.  It just seems logical that they will keep their powder dry.  I think it’s more likely that if they make a trade, it will come at the TDL. One note, in the summer of 25, THJ, Hardy and Exum are free agents and Kyrie has a PO.  That is a lot to manage and I could see Dallas wanting more certainty heading into that offseason.  

In the summer of 26, the only sure things are Lively, Green and OMax.  Luka’s PO will have been handled prior to that, but PJ and Gafford’s contract expirations line up with the summer Maxi and Powell and Kyrie’s run out (if he takes his PO).  There is a world where we try to get well below the cap that summer.  Not counting cap holds, we have $90mm in space in a summer where SGA, Fox, Tatum, JJJ, and Mikal Bridges are UFA’s.  It is hard to imagine those guys won’t get locked up before that, so plan powder doesn’t seem like a good idea the way extensions work these days.  But, it is interesting that almost the entire roster is free at the same time.

A very good text. A lot depends imho on the result of this season. If the result is good but not title level good, it would make sense to aggresively look for improvement. A lot also depends on Kyrie. If he wants to stay on a reasonable deal (reasonable being similar money he is paid now), than the plan is relatively simple. If Kyrie future is uncertain, than you have to plan for that and there are several possible outcomes.

As you said, Exum, Irving, Hardy and THJ are the teams decision for next season. It would probably make sense to extend Irving for at least one year or Mavs will be facing a risk of him walking next summer. In any case, the probably most favourable outcome is that he stays beyond next season. Everything else makes planning far more complicated.

Exum and Hardy are a luxury to have. They will be extremely cheap next season and Mavs can probably move the decision to resign them for next summer. If Exum accepts up to what early bird rights allow it is great. Hardy will also get an increase but probably not high. Those two guys allows them to get their salaries just below the second apron. 

THJ is imho still the odd man out. His offense is likely a luxury as the current team is constructed and the way Green has been playing lately. Even with Exum out his minutes have decreased lately and would likely further decrease when he returns. He is also 31 and not sure how much sense it has to sign another deal with him. I would look to upgrade him in the next season with a two way player. Depending on the position of this player, we can combine THJ salary with either of Green, PJ or Maxi. I think it is really to early to tell if the goal would be to add, decrease or keep the level of salaries with this deal. My main goal would be to get the right player, as Mavs have enough financial flexibility to not be really bothered. 

So my move to upgrade would be to find a trade for a two-way guy for THJ expiring and whatever else is needed, depending on the quality and salary of the player coming in. I would look for that deal aggresively in the summer, but they can also afford to wait till TDL. 

Beyond 2025 it all imho depend on Kyrie situation and results in 2024 and 2025. Many possible scenarios. Too many for me to go through all of them

[SleepingHero]

NBA University (@NBA_University)
Over his last 15 games, Josh Green leads the NBA in made corner 3s & he’s shooting 47.7% on them!

Also shooting 74.4% at the rim + 64.0 TS% on 12.5 PPG during that stretch

Efficient off-ball hoops—makes sense why Dallas was adamant about keeping him out of Gaff/PJ trade talks

[Winter]

I'm not sure enough has been said about the Maverick's ability to retain all their recent draft picks.

Having Green, Hardy, Omax and Lively in our system and performing is another feather in the cap for this FO. While we might wince a little at losing that FR draft pick, we nevertheless quite a bit of youth and athleticism on this team... perhaps more than we've ever had when you add Gafford and PJ.

[Jason Terry]

I thought I’d look at the numbers more closely for this summer.  We sit right on the tax for next season and still need to add at least 2 players, so it is very likely we will be a taxpayer again next season.  The first apron is currently projected to be $178.6mm and Dallas has $171mm of salary committed to 12 players.  We have a second rounder which gets us to 13 players and we’d be just over $172mm.  The TPMLE is $5.25mm, so we can spend that and have 14 players and still be under the first apron at about $177.4.  We’d be about $1.2mm under the first apron, but the cap estimate for next year has been coming down, so we need some margin of error.

Part of my bring “back the band prediction” is based on where we currently sit.  In a world with 3 two-way guys, teams can carry 14 and be just fine.  I think it would be wise for Dallas to stay under the first apron, but going over isn’t the end of the world.  Yes, you could do two minimums instead of one TP-MLE guy, but the presumption is you can get a better player with $5mm than you can with $2mm.  I presume that player who gets the TPMLE will be DJJ, but it doesn’t have to be.  It can be any free agent who will take that amount.  We will carry a $4.9mm TPE until 7/8, so as long as we stay under the first apron, we can bring in a S&T player into that exception instead of using the TPMLE.  Or, we can trade match someone and use some of the space under the first apron as long as we don’t cross the line.

There are three issues that arise if you cross the line.

1.  You can’t sign players who are waived if they make over the MLE
2.  You can only trade match up to 100% of outgoing salary
3.  You can’t S&T for someone if it takes you over the line.

I can’t say with certainty that we won’t cross the line.  For instance, you could trade THJ for someone making $5-$6mm above what THJ makes and snuggle up right below the line and then use the TP-MLE (or the TPE on a trade that isn’t a S&T) to go over.  It just seems logical that they will keep their powder dry.  I think it’s more likely that if they make a trade, it will come at the TDL. One note, in the summer of 25, THJ, Hardy and Exum are free agents and Kyrie has a PO.  That is a lot to manage and I could see Dallas wanting more certainty heading into that offseason.  

In the summer of 26, the only sure things are Lively, Green and OMax.  Luka’s PO will have been handled prior to that, but PJ and Gafford’s contract expirations line up with the summer Maxi and Powell and Kyrie’s run out (if he takes his PO).  There is a world where we try to get well below the cap that summer.  Not counting cap holds, we have $90mm in space in a summer where SGA, Fox, Tatum, JJJ, and Mikal Bridges are UFA’s.  It is hard to imagine those guys won’t get locked up before that, so plan powder doesn’t seem like a good idea the way extensions work these days.  But, it is interesting that almost the entire roster is free at the same time.

It’s all so much fun to think about 

So, basically summer 2024 and TDL 2025 we bring back the same team. The exception being that if we really want to upgrade we could use THJ as outgoing and take back whatever amount works with BYC 

Summer of 2025 we will have had 2 postseasons with this team. If it goes well we could add/upgrade. If it goes poorly we could move off of expiring Kyrie if needed. Assuming it goes well though, Kyrie accepts the PO and with Luka’s blessing could also get an extension. I don’t see Hardy making it to this point. Hardaway can expire if we still have him. That would leave us with Exum needing a new deal (if he’s still producing) and we could replace THJ with a full MLE player. 

Summer of 2026 is the big one. Like you say, it’s a blank slate. 3 postseasons will have occurred with this squad by then. Luka has his extension decision. What’s so perfect is that if Luka can’t win with who we currently have then he can start recruiting players to join him summer of 2026. He has enough gravity to get other players to line up their contract with him. We have the space to accommodate whoever he wants…..and if we win with the current guys we can cherry pick who to keep and who to let go. It’s a perfect reset moment that gives Luka maximum flexibility

[SleepingHero]

https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2024/2/12/...rick-debut

This was a great article with video examples.

[Smitty]

So all of these numbers are near the season average for each players except THJ (-10 min) and DJJ (-13 min).

MPG rotation:

Irving (32) - Exum (16)
Green (28) - THJ (20)
Luka (36) - DJJ (12)
PJW (30) - Maxi (18)
Lively (24) - Gafford (24)

So, I ran the numbers with each mpg adjustment and this is the scoring.

PPG:

Irving (25) - Exum (9) = 34
Green (9) - THJ (12) = 21
Luka (34) - DJJ (5) = 39
PJW (14) - Maxi (5) = 19
Lively (9) - Gafford (11) = 20

Total: 133
Season average: 119

[Jason Terry]

Roster thoughts:

Exum is different than Green/THJ/DJJ. I don’t see him as “POA defender” like Green or DJJ. His primary position is “bench ball handler/distributor”. We don’t have anyone else that can do that (outside of Luka/Kyrie). He’s needed when either Luka/Kyrie are off the floor

Green and DJJ play the same position now, POA defender and athletic secondary scorer. Exum and PJ are more secondary options for this duty against teams with multiple high quality guards (PJ looked amazing when he was switched onto SGA)

I like Hardaway so much more after the trade. I think he’s the guy that has the most minutes taken away when everyone is healthy. He’s a great 8th/9th/10th man that can get more or less minutes depending on if we need extra shooting or not. Between Exum and Hardaway i feel comfortable in the minutes where Luka and Kyrie both sit. Therefore he’s more in his natural position of 2 guard than his miscast position of 3 or even lol-4.

Super underrated part of the trades: Maxi, Exum, DJJ…..key role players who’ve been run into the ground are now all bench players and can have their minutes reduced to keep them fresh

[Winter]

Regarding Dan and Smity's posts....

Player Ages

Morris = 34
Hardaway = 32
Kleber = 32
Powell = 32
Irving = 31
Exum = 28
DJJ = 26
Gafford = 25
Washington = 25
Doncic = 24
Green = 23
Prosper = 21
Hardy = 20

Most haven't hit their prime years. It's ideal really if you're seeking stability in the next few years.

[Jason Terry]

Regarding Dan and Smity's posts....

Player Ages

Morris = 34
Hardaway = 32
Kleber = 32
Powell = 32
Irving = 31
Exum = 28
DJJ = 26
Gafford = 25
Washington = 25
Doncic = 24
Green = 23
Prosper = 21
Hardy = 20

Most haven't hit their prime years. It's ideal really if you're seeking stability in the next few years.

Huge advantage to us. While these old and established teams like Clippers, Suns, Lakers, Dubs, even Wolves remain stagnant we will get better year after year. We will still be good when teams like OKC, Jazz etc are rising to contender status

[Smitty]

Regarding Dan and Smity's posts....

Player Ages

Morris = 34
Hardaway = 32
Kleber = 32
Powell = 32
Irving = 31
Exum = 28
DJJ = 26
Gafford = 25
Washington = 25
Doncic = 24
Green = 23
Prosper = 21
Hardy = 20

Most haven't hit their prime years. It's ideal really if you're seeking stability in the next few years.

Missed one

Lively = 20 (Happy Birthday!)

Crazy that we could run a 26 and under only squad and beat a lot of teams

Luka | Hardy
Green
DJJ | Omax
PJW
Lively | Gafford

[Chicagojk]

Mavs will be limited in picks the next few years. If they keep them, they will have some potential swaps that could occur. At the moment, they also have several second round picks. Regardless, If I was GM, I would be pushing my scouts to uncover something that turns into a rotation player the next few years. Either a second round pick or undrafted. Most good teams find these. Dallas has found them in the past but it has been awhile. I think Nico is a little more tied into the draft than Donnie, Who seemed to take potential huge swings on guys and may not have been as active looking under every rock. Maybe that is not fair to Donnie, but just the impression I got. OKC has a few of these guys. Memphis may have found two in the last few years in Vince Williams and GG Jackson. Even pick deficient, I would be pushing this weekly looking at guys who are undervalued and fit our scheme.

[Chicagojk]

Mavs have beat a couple of teams short handed and then had one blowout against a good team.  Mavs are just one team of many, but I would curious if anyone in the media would bring up Maxi when talking about the Mavs.  I hope he can stay healthy.  I thought he might be done, but the way how he has played recently is really impressive.  This offseason Zach Lowe when talking about who the Mavs third best player was, brought up Maxi as one of the guys.  I thought that was strange and didn't see it.  With the way he is playing lately is proving that may have some truth in it. 



https://twitter.com/NekiasNBA/status/175...0637072607

---

Iztok article.

https://www.dmagazine.com/sports/2024/02...n-thunder/

The Mavericks roster being what it was before the trade, Washington and Gafford will do plenty just by soaking up minutes that had previously gone to smaller and defensively flawed players like Powell, Hardaway, Jaden Hardy, and Seth Curry. A suggestion: reduce Hardaway’s workload—he averaged 30 minutes per game in each of the last two seasons—by giving some of it to Washington, an equally efficient scorer but bigger and much better defender. For that matter, cut down (or eliminate entirely) the small three- and four-guard combinations featuring Irving, Hardaway, Hardy, Doncic, and Green. 
Another knock-on effect is Dallas now has the luxury to be conservative with Kleber’s minutes and preserve the tear on his body for the playoffs. Since returning from injury, the 32-year-old looks as spry as he has in a while, and pairing him with Washington gives Dallas a duo of versatile big men who can stretch the floor. In the past, the Mavs have favored that sort of lineup configuration during crucial moments in close games and playoff matchups. Will they again with Lively and Gafford in the fold? Probably not as much, but the personnel is there to do so if need be.

[Chicagojk]

NBA University (@NBA_University)
Over his last 15 games, Josh Green leads the NBA in made corner 3s & he’s shooting 47.7% on them!

Also shooting 74.4% at the rim + 64.0 TS% on 12.5 PPG during that stretch

Efficient off-ball hoops—makes sense why Dallas was adamant about keeping him out of Gaff/PJ trade talks

He has been very good.  The last game he didn't put up much stats.  That will happen with the depth of this team on occasion, but i still want to feel his presence even when he is not scoring.  He is doing that and should get at least 25 minutes a night if that continues.

[Winter]

So far this year, Green is averaging more 3-point attempts than 2-point attempts (the first year that's happened), and his assists have increased slightly as well. His play may get even better if the Mavs become a faster team with more of a transition game.

I was reading somewhere where his problems frequently occur during screens. Perhaps that can improve with this new player-makeup on the floor.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

So far this year, Green is averaging more 3-point attempts than 2-point attempts (the first year that's happened), and his assists have increased slightly as well. His play may get even better if the Mavs become a faster team with more of a transition game.

I was reading somewhere where his problems frequently occur during screens. Perhaps that can improve with this new player-makeup on the floor.

Green is still getting eaten up by screens on defense for the most part but there were a few examples in the last game where PJ was the one hedging that screen and it still led to turnovers because it allows Green to recover.  It could be a huge development is that continues.

[Chicagojk]

While I think the final verdict if the Mavs made teh right decision being aggressive this deadline vs waiting for the summer will be determined in the future, I found it interesting that several, win now, teams will have multiple picks to offer in the summer.  For instance, the Sixers will have both picks and cap room to be aggressive.   With a weak free agent class, they will be extremely aggressive this offseason.   Also, I read the Lakers may have 3 future firsts to offer this summer.   I am sure there are more.  Add this to all the pick hoarding teams and the competition may be fierce this offseason.    Not saying Dallas wouldn't have been in a strong position, but it might have been tough.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

While I think the final verdict if the Mavs made teh right decision being aggressive this deadline vs waiting for the summer will be determined in the future, I found it interesting that several, win now, teams will have multiple picks to offer in the summer.  For instance, the Sixers will have both picks and cap room to be aggressive.   With a weak free agent class, they will be extremely aggressive this offseason.   Also, I read the Lakers may have 3 future firsts to offer this summer.   I am sure there are more.  Add this to all the pick hoarding teams and the competition may be fierce this offseason.    Not saying Dallas wouldn't have been in a strong position, but it might have been tough.

Will the GMs around the league want future firsts only or future firsts plus young talent under contract? Is DLo and three lakers picks better than Hardaway and OMax or Green plus 2 picks? Hell one thing that we haven’t really talked about is being a position to get draft picks back at this point. I guarantee you that Gafford will draw a ton of interest next offseason, can we get a slightly lesser talented backup center and some picks to offset what we’ve spent to date? I really think the entire conversation has been way too focused on draft capital, trade assets come in many forms. We will be able to compete with anyone this offseason. This board is still just wrapping its head around having young talent. That’s been a concept foreign toabericks fans basically since Dirk got drafted.