12-27-2023, 06:00 PM
(12-27-2023, 11:44 AM)mvossman Wrote: Its interesting because last season Timmy (and Powell for that matter) had one of the better D ratings and one of the better net ratings on the team. The Luka/Kyrie/Timmy lineups had a D rating of 111 and a net of +13 on a bad team. That is from a sample of 226 minutes, which would be in the top 10 of 3 man lineup samples for this season.
So why are the numbers so wildly different this season? Did both players get worse? Is the lineup construction killing them? Is there a ton of noise in these stats?
Its easier to see in Powell's case. He has lost a step. He is playing in smaller lineups. He is being asked to play drop coverage instead of switching. His on/off sub last season (at least early on) was McGee, who was a disaster on/off.
Regardless, I agree with the premise that you want at least three defenders on the court with Luka (or Kyrie). That still leaves roughly 30 minutes of court time when one of Luka or Kyrie are off. When everyone is healthy, I could see a minutes distribution something like:
Luka 36
Kyrie 32
Exum 32
DJJ 28
Lively 28
GWill 28
Timmy 28
Green 16
Powell/Holmes 12
I am not disagreeing with you and I want Exum on the floor more than not. He has been great. His past injuries concern me though. So I would be in favor of cutting his minutes back in the regular season 4-6 minutes to see if we can keep him healthy. Maybe those minutes go to Green. I would like to see Green try to disrupt offenses full court too like Exum has done. He needs to disrupt though. A lot of times he shows he is active but the player he is guarding eventually gets to their spot and makes positive plays.