MAVS NEWS: Luka Is Hurt, But is Trudging On | DLive's Mom Passes Away| Maxi OUT

[Scott41theMavs]

We had a conversation a few weeks back about what Rookie Lively might look like compared to other rookies.  Some of the names that came up were S. Adams, M. Robinson.  Various people then opined that he might be as good as so-and-so or he’ll never be as good as so-and-so.  Well, we now have 7 games under our belt.

Lively’s box score stats are 9.0/7.7 with a block and an assist per game.  He’s had three double digit scoring games (16, 15 and 10) and 3 double digit rebounding games (14, 13 and 10).  His PER is 18.8.  His WS/48 is .216 and Dallas is +8.4 when he’s on the floor.  All of that in 24 minutes a game.  The 3 times he’s gotten 30 minutes or more he’s averaged 12/12 instead of 9/7.7.  So, clearly the ability to stay on the floor is key.  But, he’s a freaking baby.  He plays a position where grown men push his skinny frame around mercilessly.  And he’s doing all of this ALREADY.  I don’t think any of us really appreciate what we are going to have here in 2-3 years.

So, back to the comparison conversation.  Adams as a rookie doesn’t tough any of Lively’s overall numbers.  In fact, in his entire Rookie season Adams had one double digit rebound game (10) and three double digit scoring games (17, 10 and 10).  

Walker Kessler is a really good comp so far.  He was 9/8 his rookie season with similar WS/48, a better PER and a worse On-Court.  He had 33 double digit point games (5 of those 20 or more) and 26 double digit rebound games.  Lively is producing that in 43% of his games so far, so that kind of production is certainly within his reach.

Jarrett Allen was an 8/5 guy as a 19 year old rookie.  He had 28 double digit scoring games, but only FIVE double digit rebound games as a rookie.

Mark Williams was a 9/7 guy last season (but in 19 minutes).  It took him a while to get going, but he had 18 double digit scoring games and 11 double digit rebound games.

Mitchell Robinson got some attention here as a comp.  He was 7/6 but had the same WS/48, a higher PER and was a negative on-court.  He had 22 double digit scoring games, but only 3 double digit rebound games (14, 12 and 11…So Lively’s already tied that).

Finally, even Duren seems within reach.  He was 9/9 last year with worse advanced stats and a negative on-court.  29 double digit scoring games and 28 double digit rebounding games.

Every year we pine for “real Centers” like these guys.  Well, we now have one.

Massive kudos to Lindsay/Nico/Finley and co. on this pick, which so many here believed to be a reach. Lots of crow being served here. As for myself, I was fine with having trading down for Lively on draft day, but what made the evening for me was the second trade - getting Holmes and especially OMax. 

I was very excited at both Lively and OMax's play in the summer league. SL is what put me on the bandwagon that the Lively naysayers were going to eat crow because his learning IQ was off the charts. 

The two things that have me rather disappointed about this offseason as it relates to the start of the season: 1) Holmes can't sniff the court, even on a back to back. I realize that Powell knows our system, does some things well, and has years of chemistry with Luka. He's still a journeyman who should be benched from the 7-8-man rotation by any real bigs (as in, Lively, plus another guy). Holmes must be stinking up the joint something awful in practice to get no minutes. 2) Of course, Holmes was supposed to be insurance plus the cost of acquiring OMax. Note my sub-heading under my screen name. Given OMax's last two years of college and his brilliant 2-way performance in summer league, his pitiful pre-season performance made no sense whatsoever, and his inability to get minutes so far (has GL started yet? why isn't he there if so?) is deeply discouraging. 

There is one solitary explanation to me to make his last two years of college and the SL performance fit with the preseason and his lack of any court time in-season - he developed a substance abuse problem in the meantime. I know that's a rather damning thing to presume, but absolutely nothing else makes sense to me. There was all the evidence in the world in summer league that he would soon overtake GW for role and minutes. The whole conversation you were having in the other thread with omahen was how we needed a bigger GW. I'm simply flabbergasted that OMax is no longer the obvious answer.

Much as I would like to pat myself on the back for what I correctly "knew" about Lively, I feel dumb as dirt about OMax, so I lose all bragging privileges.