10-22-2023, 03:38 PM
(10-22-2023, 03:16 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: It seems it would have happened by now if it was going to happen. Below is Sam Quinn's evaluation of Green (CBS Sports). It is part of his evaluation of the entire draft class. Green fits in what he calls the "Bet on Yourself Candidates". The Keldon Johnson contract he references was 4/$74mm. It started at $20mm and declined with an average of $18.5mm.
"There is an open competition for the starting shoot guard slot in Dallas. The metrics suggest Josh Green deserves it, but Jason Kidd's trust in him waxed and waned last season. That should suit Green just fine. He has the Mavericks over a barrel, in a sense. If he plays well, they'd have no means of replacing him as a free agent next summer. Even if Kidd yanks his minutes around, he's put more than enough on tape already to warrant a starter-level offer sheet in restricted free agency.
If Dallas wants to lock him up, it would likely need to approach that Keldon Johnson number. Ask Jalen Brunson how comfortable the Mavericks are making big upside bets like that. In all likelihood, their offer underwhelms and Green punishes them for their hesitance during the season."
It’s always been a crapshoot, trying to project a player’s future performance, and thus, his value.
What makes it so much more difficult now is the high price of being wrong, as far as future roster construction.
Can you get off a bad contract? Sure. Either take back bad contracts in return, or give up future value (like draft picks) to escape your wrong guesses.
And that’s what it is, really. Just a guess.