09-13-2023, 01:42 PM
(09-13-2023, 12:51 PM)mvossman Wrote: This metric is severely flawed in my opinion. According to it, Klay, Wiggins, Hayward, Barnes, Timmy, Middleton, Conley and Adams were not worth the MLE last year. Some of that was due to missing time, but some of those guys had productive seasons. Klay played more minutes than Timmy and is rated lower value. I would be good with a one for one trade.
It looks like the metric is based primarily on simple boxscore stats. In fact in the writeup on half the folks on the list they have to explain why their metric does a poor job. The exclaim the limitation of advanced stats, but what they really mean is the limitation of boxscore stats.
Its really hard to do salary evaluation for NBA. Due to scarcity, player value jumps very quickly once you get past min production. Its hard to get that right. For example, the LEBRON metric is a decent advanced stat that does better than advanced boxscore stats, but its player dollar evaluation is a joke. It does not scale properly having many of the best NBA players not even worth their max contracts (including Luka).
Timmy has definitely been overpaid in the past, and he probably was not worth 19 mil last season, but I would not use this metric to pin down his estimated value.
I don't think the valuation is that off. You decided to take one season data to compare their values. Obviously the season by season data fluctuate based on many factors and data from one season clearly doesn't represent the overall value of the player. It just represents the value for that season. I think it is pretty obvious the result of a single season needs interpretation exactly because of that fluctuations. Everyone knows Wiggins is a better player than THJ. But, he missed more than half of last season, which greatly impacted his value calculation for that single season.
A bit more explanation of the players you mentioned. Text under Klay seems off, as if they accidentaly copy pasted wrong text under it. He was paid almost 40 mil, not 30 mil as they state in the text. Also, his stats in last season doesn't indicate a value of just 8.7 mil, compared to production and availability of other players. Barnes production last season was evaluated at a bit over 15 mil, which is very close to what he actually earned and quite on par compared to THJ production (THJ is valued at 10 mil). Wiggins value (11 mil) is greatly reduced because he was missing so much time last season. Hayward missed a lot of time (again) and his estimated value based on that and his production in last season is quite correctly at 8.8 mil. Conley production last season was valued at 12 mil, which is again quite ok considering his overall production, especially in the Utah "half" of the season. Adams missed half the season, which also greatly impacted his overall value.
I totally agree this calculation doesn't represent the exact dollar figure a certain player was worth. But it does serve as an indication of a value and as s useful comparison between players which is easy to understand to everyone. Which is basically the purpose of the article. The purpose was not to create an ultimate advance stat covering everything. Which is not possible anyway.
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