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[mvossman]

Interesting piece. Of course we can argue ad nauseam about the methodology that put some very interesting names on the list. Still, the bit about THJ shines some light why Mavs can't find a taker for him. From the piece:

In 2022-23, Tim Hardaway Jr. averaged 14.4 points and 3.5 rebounds on 40.1 percent shooting (38.5 percent from three) while appearing in 71 games for the Dallas Mavericks, earning $19.6 million for the campaign. According to Real Value, those contributions were worth $9.6 million, meaning our metric believes Dallas overpaid Hardaway Jr. by roughly $10.0 million. Hardaway Jr. is a solid player, an outside shooter with athleticism who can get hot from three from time to time, but he’s too inconsistent of a sniper to be beloved be the advanced metrics. He also doesn’t contribute much outside of his three-point shooting, which isn’t even elite.

https://hoopshype.com/lists/most-overpai...-all-time/

This metric is severely flawed in my opinion.  According to it, Klay, Wiggins, Hayward, Barnes, Timmy, Middleton, Conley and Adams were not worth the MLE last year.  Some of that was due to missing time, but some of those guys had productive seasons.  Klay played more minutes than Timmy and is rated lower value.  I would be good with a one for one trade.

It looks like the metric is based primarily on simple boxscore stats.  In fact in the writeup on half the folks on the list they have to explain why their metric does a poor job.  The exclaim the limitation of advanced stats, but what they really mean is the limitation of boxscore stats.

Its really hard to do salary evaluation for NBA.  Due to scarcity, player value jumps very quickly once you get past min production.  Its hard to get that right.  For example, the LEBRON metric is a decent advanced stat that does better than advanced boxscore stats, but its player dollar evaluation is a joke.  It does not scale properly having many of the best NBA players not even worth their max contracts (including Luka).

Timmy has definitely been overpaid in the past, and he probably was not worth 19 mil last season, but I would not use this metric to pin down his estimated value.