09-13-2023, 10:08 AM
(09-13-2023, 07:33 AM)omahen Wrote: I would say that Kidd tried to use him differently than Carlisle did, which resulted in a worse result. Carlisle correctly recognized that THJ is best used as a spot up shooter where his quick release and high jump shot enables high amount of attempts at an above average percentage, unlike slow releasing guys like Maxi and DFS. As soon as you want THJ to do more than that, his efficiency plummets. Since there was plenty of data about that before Kidd started in Dallas, it is a big question why Kidd tried someting that was proven as not really great before. Imho, Carlisle was good in recognizing the strengths and limitations of his players and put them in positions where they contributed at best. But since the team was limited, so were the results. At the end of the day, you need more than just a bunch of one dimensional guys.
Kidd on the other hand, recognized the limitations of Mavs plays and the need for more skills in specific roles. But, the mistake was to try to use the players in roles they were not able to play. Everything went right in first Kidd season as a lot of players had performances of their careers in that playoffs run. Most importantly, Mavs had three players able to create for themselves and others, something Mavs didn't remedy ever since. Unfortunately, that successful run might have blinded Mavs from the reality of what they really have, which strike hard the very next season, along with a disastrous offseason. Perhaps Mavs just didn't have any other choice but ask THJ to do more on-ball after Brunson was gone and no replacement was brought instead of him. The problem of third creator will continue for Mavs, unless Green and Hardy make significant steps forward.
THJ can be a solid player in right environment. Problem is, as we have discussed here for a long time, that he doesn't fit next to Luka and Kyrie. Even though his defense improved in last season, Mavs unfortunately need way above average defenders next to their stars. Something, THJ is just not able to bring. Again, Mavs will be facing tough dillemas where to put THJ. Offensively, his best plays are coming of playing next to Luka, where he gets best catch and shoot opportunities and he contributes in spacing the floor greatly. But, you can forget about any kind of great team defense playing him next to Luka and Kyrie. If you play him of the bench, he will be far less efficient on offense. But, since he is on the roster, Mavs will have to play him instead of some other options that are better fits. Green is a better defender and fits far nicely next to Luka and Kyrie in the starting line-up. Hardy and Curry can both do more with the ball (way more efficient than THJ) and are better fits coming from the bench, even though they are worse defenders.
It seems like THJ doesn't have a market now. At least not one that wouldn't require assets. So, what is the best way forward:
a) recognize THJ doesn't fit on the team as it is and play better players in the respective roles? THJ value would plummet but results will likely be better (and some younger guys will have more minutes to develop) or
b) play THJ despite the wrong fit. Offense will be great and he will put up good numbers, but results will likely be worse, as defense will be bad (and some younger guys will get less developmental minutes). At some point there might be someone that needs more offense who would find value in him.
c) eat the bullet and trade him despite it requires some assets. Example like THJ+2027 for Capela (as he is a center that was most often mentioned as potentially available). Option "a" with a better center at the cost of 2027 pick.
One thing to note. Value of some offense first guys really plummeted. Oubre averaged over 20 ppg last season, and it seems he can't get more than vet min. A very similar player like Fournier was "exiled" in New York, because the coach thinks they can have better results without him (he chose the option "a" from the above). NY can't find a willing taker for Fournier for two years now.
I think Hardaway fits fine off the bench as the 2nd offensive option when either Kyrie or Luka are resting. He also fits well if either Kyrie or Luka miss a game for whatever reason- in that case, he'll take more shots and average closer to 16-18 ppg. His shooting, decent defense and professionalism are all valuable in the NBA. I realize it became a media talking point that the Mavericks were looking to trade THJ this off-season. I'm not sure that means the Mavericks really wanted to trade him. I think it's also possible we just have an owner who can't filter what he says to the media and sometimes just blurts things out to be interesting.
I think his contract is very fair. Max Strus received a 4-year, $63 million dollar contract. I think THJ is clearly a better player than Strus although a few years older. The fact that we didn't trade THJ this summer doesn't mean no team would have liked to trade for him. I think a team like the Magic would have loved to add THJ rather than sign Joe Ingles for $11 million a year.
I believe we'd gladly trade THJ for an upgrade on the roster should the opportunity arise. I think he's probably the most likely player to be dealt with our 2027 first if a good player becomes available. I also think Josh Green will become the clear starter this coming season at SF. I think we'll have minutes off the bench for both Jaden Hardy and THJ. Seth Curry is no longer a decent rotation player and won't take minutes from THJ unless Jason Kidd really is blind.
I don't think Kelly Oubre's situation has anything to do with THJ's value. NBA executives obviously talk and have hurt Oubre's value around the league. Presumably, he's either an attitude problem or a really bad teammate to have so little value this off-season. It seems the same thing happened to Christian Wood. Hardaway Jr. doesn't have that issue.