09-04-2023, 10:44 AM
(09-04-2023, 04:23 AM)omahen Wrote: Let’s say Greens current status value is 10 points. Let’s say that at this point Greens additional value because of potential is another 10 points. So what happens in a year is, that part of that potential value will either transfer to current status value, because player will improve, or it will disappear, because there will be no improvement and evaluation of potential will change.
The question, as it relates to an extension, is what number between 10 and 20 is the right number. The player (and especially his agent who may not be employed with the player a year from now) is interested in security now. They want to get as close to 20 as they can, but there is a number they are willing to take to get this thing done now. The question is the cost of that security. If the cost is too high, they will just take the risk.
The team wants the opposite. They know there is a risk of 20 being the number a year from now even though past performance may indicate 10 is the appropriate number right now. They’d like to pay as close to 10 as they can, but will go higher to avoid the risk of paying 20. But, if the number gets too close to 20, they too may decide to just wait (especially since Green is RFA).
What we know is 10 and 20 won’t be the number that is signed for an extension. It is probably somewhere between 14 and 16. Our opinions of what the player ‘is’ or ‘could be’ won’t have much to do with what they settle on. It will be more a read of the market a year from now. Who blinks first will largely depend on how many/few teams will have 20 next summer vs. how many/few players might command that type of money. Dallas should probably expect to be tested on this given their proximity to the first apron with what they are committed to already.