09-04-2023, 04:23 AM
I see the Green risk differently, as I tried to explain before. He is what he is now, but there is possibility of potential. So lets simplify, that the player market value is based on his current status and potential. Current status is what we see and we mostly all see it the same, based on his stats and impact. Potential is more subjective. Some see it more than others.
Lets say Greens current status value is 10 points. Lets say that at this point Greens additional value because of potential is another 10 points. So what happens in a year is, that part of that potential value will either transfer to current status value, because player will improve, or it will dissapear, because there will be no improvement and evaluation of potential will change.
Scenarios possible about his value in 2024 are:
- Green realizes his potential and his current status value increase. He has now perhaps a 20 points current value and still some potential, which was not seen before.
- Green basically remains same player. In this case his current value stays 10 points, but the value of potential will decrease, becuase teams will at some point say - he is who he is
- anything in between the before stated extreme scenarios
My point is - if some other team values Green at "20 points" now, because they believe in potential. Would it be smart to sell now, because there is a possibility, that his value will be lower next season?
Lets say Greens current status value is 10 points. Lets say that at this point Greens additional value because of potential is another 10 points. So what happens in a year is, that part of that potential value will either transfer to current status value, because player will improve, or it will dissapear, because there will be no improvement and evaluation of potential will change.
Scenarios possible about his value in 2024 are:
- Green realizes his potential and his current status value increase. He has now perhaps a 20 points current value and still some potential, which was not seen before.
- Green basically remains same player. In this case his current value stays 10 points, but the value of potential will decrease, becuase teams will at some point say - he is who he is
- anything in between the before stated extreme scenarios
My point is - if some other team values Green at "20 points" now, because they believe in potential. Would it be smart to sell now, because there is a possibility, that his value will be lower next season?