09-04-2023, 01:40 AM
(09-03-2023, 04:57 PM)F Gump Wrote: In particular, I think Green fell short last year in how much he raised his game. It was better than the year before (although, it would almost be impossible not to be). But he still was shy about shooting, looking for perfect shots only, or preferring a pass over an obvious shot. Getting to the rim uncontested then passing to the perimeter, rather than taking a layup or dunk, ugh, what an abomination that we'd see regularly.
Obviously what happens next season cannot be known, but his progress this summer has been super meh, going backwards, which argues against the assumption he will automatically get better in 2023-24. Those factors speak to both current value and his future.
Some FA comps to keep in mind - Thybulle 3/33, G Williams 4/53. There's no reason to think Green's trajectory exceeds either of theirs. And that should also be reasonable way to assess what the Mavs (and others) want to pay for that type of player.
Good post. The Mavs and Josh Green's agent are probably having a similar argument about fair value for his extension.
The path to Josh Green becoming an above-average starter is not a difficult one.
His defense is already pretty good and will become better with experience. He is already one of the best young guard/wing defenders in the NBA. The athleticism and effort are already outstanding. More NBA repetitions will make him an elite NBA wing-defender. Regular NBA minutes and good coaching should guarantee this.
Offensively, he needs to become more assertive in exactly the way you explained it. He needs to take the open shot when he has it and needs to finish at the rim. A good coach will encourage this. A bad coach will not. We'll all learn a lot about Jason Kidd this coming season.
I think Josh played better offensively prior to the Kyrie trade. I think he struggled post-Kyrie. I guess he thought he should defer to two of the best offensive players in the NBA. As I posted earlier, when Luka didn't play, Josh was much more assertive offensively as evidenced by 15.7 ppg and 3.5 apg. Other teams will notice that and believe he might thrive on a team without a ball-dominant superstar.
Josh's numbers for FIBA mean nothing. Australia's coach could not have cared less that we wanted to see Josh Green handle the ball and initiate the offense more. Josh played the role his coach asked him to play. I think his coach probably deserves a lot of criticism for Australia's poor showing. Josh Green does not.
I like the comparison of Grant Williams to Josh Green. I think they are currently at a similar level of NBA impact. I think Josh is slightly better defensively already. Grant is clearly a better 3-point shooter despite Josh's percentage last season. The difference is that Josh is two years younger, has better handles and is a better passer already. When Grant Williams tries to create, it doesn't go well. Grant is much more confident and provides some physicality that we need. I think they both fit well here and I would like to keep them both here for at least a couple of years.
I like the Grant Williams acquisition and I think the contract is very fair. I think this board is generally overrating Grant Williams though and I expect some on this board will turn on him as the season progresses. Eventually, most will realize that he is also just a role player. He is a 3 and D with average defense. I think that fits well with this roster though so I'll defend him if he plays that role well. We have all seen Grant Williams succeed in the playoffs but he accomplished very little during this past season's playoffs. In fact, he averaged 5 points and 2 rebounds per game. That is anemic.
Josh Green has more room for improvement than Grant Williams and I think the Mavs may have to pay something for that potential.
If we had a more reliable owner, I think it would be reasonable to let the season play out and then just match whatever offer Josh receives next-offseason. I worry though that there will be some new excuse next summer to not spend the money- whether it be the Jaden Hardy extension or a concerted effort to clear cap space for a Giannis pursuit. I would prefer the guarantee of extending Josh Green now and then letting this youngish team grow together for the next few seasons.