09-03-2023, 02:17 AM
(This post was last modified: 09-03-2023, 02:51 AM by surfpuckmd.)
(09-02-2023, 11:31 AM)F Gump Wrote: All that is just another layer of excuses and strawmen (no one has said he needs to be an "offensive star" or an 18-20 ppg scorer) to try to rationalize away the recurrent fact that Green needs to be productive, but often simply is not. And we can't say it's because of Luka-Kyrie, when the fact is that he goes to play with lesser players and against lesser competition and he's even worse.
The problem everywhere is that his impact is negated by a lack of quantity of plays being made (on both ends).
On offense, he can't just be a bystander, accepting leftovers and only shooting wide open shots, if he is to be regarded and paid as a key player. He has to be looking for shots, and taking hard ones when needed, to pressure the opposition in a different way. On defense, he has to proactively make plays, not just shadow an opponent, if he is to be an actual defensive difference-maker. And it needs to happen a lot, in a way that alters the opponents' offense, not just a play or two a game.
I hear the arguments about "potential" yet pointing to potential is an admission he isn't doing it yet, with a hope he does better one day. IMO he's given excessive slack because he's the Mavs Great FRP Hope, ie he's given credit for what they want him to be and what a FRP should be, rather than evaluated (and ultimately paid) for who he is and how well he plays now.
I've already made my argument on this and I am trying to understand yours.
If your argument is that the player Josh Green was last season is only worth the MLE, than I agree with you. Last year, he was an average to slightly above average defensive player and a very good 3-point shooter on modest attempts. He had a few flashes of handling the ball and made some nice passes when he was asked to do so. If he were 30 years old with that production, then I would agree that he would be worth the MLE or less.
However, he was 21 years old at the start of last season. He has improved markedly over the past two years. He is still only 22 years old. Not all 22 year old NBA rotation players improve but most do. Especially those who have shown dramatic improvement over their first few seasons. He is not the same player he was two years ago and I think the Mavericks will have to factor in that he is likely to improve further when they determine what his future value is to this team.
There will be a lot of teams with a lot of cap space next summer. Teams like the Spurs, Magic, Rockets, Pistons, Wizards, Jazz and Pacers may each have more than $50 million next summer to improve their teams. Several of them will have closer to $75 million. Most of the premiere free agents next off-season are over-30 vets that won't be interested in those teams. The best players from the 2020 draft class have either signed or will soon sign extensions- Immannuel Quickley and Jaden McDaniels are likely to extend soon. Nic Claxton and OG Anunoby are the best young free agents next off-season and will both receive near-max offers. After that, there will not a lot of good young players available. I think Josh Green will be an attractive option to those teams holding all that cap space.
If we wait until next summer to determine his value, then we risk having to match a contract that is much larger than the MLE. One season ago, I never would have predicted that Max Strus, Rui Hachimura or Bruce Brown would receive contracts for more than the MLE this summer. Yet, each of them will make significantly more than the MLE. It is expensive to acquire players in free agency as we should have learned ourselves over the past 12 off-seasons.
The difference between your reasoning on Josh Green and mine is that you want him to be paid based upon what you saw last season (and a bit of what you saw in FIBA). I believe we will have to pay him an additional premium based upon his age and the dramatic improvement he has shown over the past two years. I think you also have to factor in the avalanche of cap space that is coming up next off-season.
I believe it would be better to extend him at $16 million this summer than to wait until next off-season to match the offers he will receive. If he continues his current trajectory and makes even some marginal improvements, then he will receive offers as a starting-level 23 year old player. I think those offers could be over $20 million next off-season. If he makes more significant improvement as a facilitator, then those offers will become really exorbitant. We would then be putting a lot of faith in Mark Cuban spending a lot of money. That hasn't always worked out for us.