07-27-2023, 11:00 AM
(07-27-2023, 09:32 AM)mvossman Wrote: My guess is by the second half of his rookie season he is contributing a useful 15 minutes a game. I think at some point in his sophomore year he will be a rotational player with minutes somewhere in the 20s (probably lower 20s).
To be clear, I am a big fan of Allen. If there was any chance to send a first to land either him or Claxton I was all over it, but my guess is both are a lot more expensive. There was talk regarding Allen possibly being on the block due to lack of playoff performance and presumably because he is not a great fit on the court with Mobley. But that was before the draft. I think its reasonable to suggest that the Mavs were more interested in spending big assets on a young center prior to the draft than post Lively, right? Its not that it would not be great to have Allen, but the long term value add is less. If we could not get a deal done pre draft, it would be harder now. You mentioned that things change, but I'm not sure anything has changed regarding Cleveland. Not sure how Harden, Siakam, Kat, Dame impacts Cleveland's situation? The only reason we are talking about Capela post draft is because of potential Siakam/Kat trade (and also because he will cost a lot less in resources and make more sense as stop gap center).
Excellent reply. Thank you.
I don't think we're far off in opinions of Lively. I would say 12mins rookie, 18mins sophomore. Point being is that I think he's 2.5-3 years away from starting (mid season 3rd year to beginning of 4th year), which IMO is nice expectation without too much hope.
I loved what I saw from OMax. When he develops an outside shot, I see him as the flex SF/PF we need (in the mold of DFS and Crowder). I'm not nearly as worried about that role as I was, filling it with likes of K.Anderson, or my dream Eason.
We're obviously covered at point (guard/forward), SG, and flex SG/SF. Williams, Maxi, Luka, and OMax can handle PF.
That leaves center as our exposed position. I simply don't think we can contend the next 2-3 years with a cast of limited Lively, Powell, Holmes, and McGee. I hope Holmes will rebound his career, but that can't be depended upon; whatever he gives us should be a nice addition unexpected.
Which leaves me wanting a center who can make us a contender now. J.Allen's 3yr/$20m/yr contract is ideal for Lively's timeline. Again, in the 3rd year you'd have a 27yo J.Allen on an expiring $20m/yr deal. *If Lively is ready, you move J.Allen for top talent in a spot of need unknown at this time. This *is building for the future.
If a package of Wood/THJ/27FRP isn't enough, I'd seriously consider moving J.Green for J.Allen.