MAVS NEWS: Luka Wins Community Cares Award! | DLive's Mom Passes Away| Maxi OUT

[mvossman]

Best case scenario is Lively gets 18mins as a backup.  Again, we have to contend now to keep Luka here and happy.  Waiting 2-3 to years to see *if Lively is a starting C is too risky.

Kyrie, Hardy
Green, Curry
Luka, OMax
G.Williams, Maxi, Wade
J.Allen, Powell, Lively

That's a contending rotation.

---

#fakenews...  I said McGee/Holmes/FRP wasn't enough for Capela.

And I am saying your proposed trade is not enough for Allen, or it would have already happened.  

Based on the moves this organization has made, the plan to make Luka happy is not to win now at all costs, its to build something that can win long term (and also probably to clean up the locker room).

[KillerLeft]

Based on the moves this organization has made, the plan to make Luka happy is not to win now at all costs, its to build something that can win long term (and also probably to clean up the locker room).

Absolutely. The only way to guarantee he is not here long term is to be completely stripped down, void of talent in their prime and draft capital when the time comes. The best way to screw yourself into that awful situation is to spend good assets chasing quick fixes that won’t move the needle. That’s right out of the Cavs’ Dan Gilbert playbook, and doing the opposite is the way to go. 

The next decision point is in a few years. They need to keep getting better between now and then, not make stupid impulse purchases.

The smart way to build WILL make the team more attractive for Luka in the long run, and has the added benefit of being what’s best for the team, with or without Luka.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

And I am saying your proposed trade is not enough for Allen, or it would have already happened.  

Based on the moves this organization has made, the plan to make Luka happy is not to win now at all costs, its to build something that can win long term (and also probably to clean up the locker room).

Meh.  There's still a lot brewing in the trade market.  Dame.  Harden.  Siakom.  Capela.  Bogs.  Wood still hasn't signed.  To say it would have already happened is silly.  There's a lot of summer left.  5 weeks ago would you have believed BOS would trade Smart for KP?  It's unknown until it's known.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

And I am saying your proposed trade is not enough for Allen, or it would have already happened.  

Based on the moves this organization has made, the plan to make Luka happy is not to win now at all costs, its to build something that can win long term (and also probably to clean up the locker room).

Then what would it take for J.Allen?

J.Allen would be an amazing trade chip 3rd season in.  If Lively is ready to take the reins, you trade J.Allen for our largest need at that time.  If Lively is a bust, you have a still 27yo J.Allen.  Contending now and building for the future isn't mutually exclusive with a 25yo top-10 defensive big.  You're creating a false dilemma fallacy.

[mvossman]

Then what would it take for J.Allen?

J.Allen would be an amazing trade chip 3rd season in.  If Lively is ready to take the reins, you trade J.Allen for our largest need at that time.  If Lively is a bust, you have a still 27yo J.Allen.  Contending now and building for the future isn't mutually exclusive with a 25yo top-10 defensive big.  You're creating a false dilemma fallacy.

I am not creating a false dilemma fallacy.  We have very limited assets and spending a large majority of them on two players that can't share the court together is a misallocation of resources.  

I'm not sure what it would take for Allen.  I'm not convinced he is on the block.  Probably at least the first and one of the kids.

[The Jom]

Absolutely. The only way to guarantee he is not here long term is to be completely stripped down, void of talent in their prime and draft capital when the time comes. The best way to screw yourself into that awful situation is to spend good assets chasing quick fixes that won’t move the needle. That’s right out of the Cavs’ Dan Gilbert playbook, and doing the opposite is the way to go. 

The next decision point is in a few years. They need to keep getting better between now and then, not make stupid impulse purchases.

The smart way to build WILL make the team more attractive for Luka in the long run, and has the added benefit of being what’s best for the team, with or without Luka.

Poor Mr. Gilbert doesn’t deserve the blame. He had a Rich Paul gun to his head. If Luka starts demanding 1+1 contracts, won’t we have to do the same?

[KillerLeft]

Poor Mr. Gilbert doesn’t deserve the blame. He had a Rich Paul gun to his head. If Luka starts demanding 1+1 contracts, won’t we have to do the same?

I was referring Cleveland stint #1. Pre Miami, not post.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I am not creating a false dilemma fallacy.  We have very limited assets and spending a large majority of them on two players that can't share the court together is a misallocation of resources.  

I'm not sure what it would take for Allen.  I'm not convinced he is on the block.  Probably at least the first and one of the kids.

How much do you think Lively will contribute his rookie season?  Sophomore?

[mvossman]

How much do you think Lively will contribute his rookie season?  Sophomore?

My guess is by the second half of his rookie season he is contributing a useful 15 minutes a game.  I think at some point in his sophomore year he will be a rotational player with minutes somewhere in the 20s (probably lower 20s).  

To be clear, I am a big fan of Allen.  If there was any chance to send a first to land either him or Claxton I was all over it, but my guess is both are a lot more expensive.  There was talk regarding Allen possibly being on the block due to lack of playoff performance and presumably because he is not a great fit on the court with Mobley.  But that was before the draft.  I think its reasonable to suggest that the Mavs were more interested in spending big assets on a young center prior to the draft than post Lively, right?  Its not that it would not be great to have Allen, but the long term value add is less.  If we could not get a deal done pre draft, it would be harder now.  You mentioned that things change, but I'm not sure anything has changed regarding Cleveland.  Not sure how Harden, Siakam, Kat, Dame impacts Cleveland's situation?  The only reason we are talking about Capela post draft is because of potential Siakam/Kat trade (and also because he will cost a lot less in resources and make more sense as stop gap center).

[KillerLeft]

My guess is by the second half of his rookie season he is contributing a useful 15 minutes a game.  I think at some point in his sophomore year he will be a rotational player with minutes somewhere in the 20s (probably lower 20s).  

This would be amazing, and it's basically what I'm hoping to see, too.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

My guess is by the second half of his rookie season he is contributing a useful 15 minutes a game.  I think at some point in his sophomore year he will be a rotational player with minutes somewhere in the 20s (probably lower 20s).  

To be clear, I am a big fan of Allen.  If there was any chance to send a first to land either him or Claxton I was all over it, but my guess is both are a lot more expensive.  There was talk regarding Allen possibly being on the block due to lack of playoff performance and presumably because he is not a great fit on the court with Mobley.  But that was before the draft.  I think its reasonable to suggest that the Mavs were more interested in spending big assets on a young center prior to the draft than post Lively, right?  Its not that it would not be great to have Allen, but the long term value add is less.  If we could not get a deal done pre draft, it would be harder now.  You mentioned that things change, but I'm not sure anything has changed regarding Cleveland.  Not sure how Harden, Siakam, Kat, Dame impacts Cleveland's situation?  The only reason we are talking about Capela post draft is because of potential Siakam/Kat trade (and also because he will cost a lot less in resources and make more sense as stop gap center).

Excellent reply.  Thank you.

I don't think we're far off in opinions of Lively.  I would say 12mins rookie, 18mins sophomore.  Point being is that I think he's 2.5-3 years away from starting (mid season 3rd year to beginning of 4th year), which IMO is nice expectation without too much hope.  

I loved what I saw from OMax.  When he develops an outside shot, I see him as the flex SF/PF we need (in the mold of DFS and Crowder).  I'm not nearly as worried about that role as I was, filling it with likes of K.Anderson, or my dream Eason.

We're obviously covered at point (guard/forward), SG, and flex SG/SF.  Williams, Maxi, Luka, and OMax can handle PF.

That leaves center as our exposed position.   I simply don't think we can contend the next 2-3 years with a cast of limited Lively, Powell, Holmes, and McGee.  I hope Holmes will rebound his career, but that can't be depended upon; whatever he gives us should be a nice addition unexpected.

Which leaves me wanting a center who can make us a contender now.  J.Allen's 3yr/$20m/yr contract is ideal for Lively's timeline.  Again, in the 3rd year you'd have a 27yo J.Allen on an expiring $20m/yr deal.  *If Lively is ready, you move J.Allen for top talent in a spot of need unknown at this time.  This *is building for the future.

If a package of Wood/THJ/27FRP isn't enough, I'd seriously consider moving J.Green for J.Allen.

[mvossman]

Excellent reply.  Thank you.

I don't think we're far off in opinions of Lively.  I would say 12mins rookie, 18mins sophomore.  Point being is that I think he's 2.5-3 years away from starting (mid season 3rd year to beginning of 4th year), which IMO is nice expectation without too much hope.  

I loved what I saw from OMax.  When he develops an outside shot, I see him as the flex SF/PF we need (in the mold of DFS and Crowder).  I'm not nearly as worried about that role as I was, filling it with likes of K.Anderson, or my dream Eason.

We're obviously covered at point (guard/forward), SG, and flex SG/SF.  Williams, Maxi, Luka, and OMax can handle PF.

That leaves center as our exposed position.   I simply don't think we can contend the next 2-3 years with a cast of limited Lively, Powell, Holmes, and McGee.  I hope Holmes will rebound his career, but that can't be depended upon; whatever he gives us should be a nice addition unexpected.

Which leaves me wanting a center who can make us a contender now.  J.Allen's 3yr/$20m/yr contract is ideal for Lively's timeline.  Again, in the 3rd year you'd have a 27yo J.Allen on an expiring $20m/yr deal.  *If Lively is ready, you move J.Allen for top talent in a spot of need unknown at this time.  This *is building for the future.

If a package of Wood/THJ/27FRP isn't enough, I'd seriously consider moving J.Green for J.Allen.

By choosing not to spend all of our assets on Allen now (assuming that is even an option) does not pigeonhole us into sticking with our current center rotation for the next 2 or 3 years.  We can make a move at the TDL if necessary or next offseason.  

This team got better but also a lot younger.  Its going to take some time.  I don't think adding Allen to this team makes it a contender year 1.  I would like to see what we have in Holmes and Lively before making a huge move in that direction.  We have the time.

Bottom line, signs say its not going to happen.  We made an offer prior to draft and it was not enough for them.  No reason to believe we want to make a bigger offer now, and very little noise that he is on the block right now anyways.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

By choosing not to spend all of our assets on Allen now (assuming that is even an option) does not pigeonhole us into sticking with our current center rotation for the next 2 or 3 years.  We can make a move at the TDL if necessary or next offseason.  

This team got better but also a lot younger.  Its going to take some time.  I don't think adding Allen to this team makes it a contender year 1.  I would like to see what we have in Holmes and Lively before making a huge move in that direction.  We have the time.

Bottom line, signs say its not going to happen.  We made an offer prior to draft and it was not enough for them.  No reason to believe we want to make a bigger offer now, and very little noise that he is on the block right now anyways.

Well put.  OK, I reverse.  It makes sense to let some unknowns be known before making a move.  There's always the TDL like you said.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Well put.  OK, I reverse.  It makes sense to let some unknowns be known before making a move.  There's always the TDL like you said.

...and that gives CLE another half-season to see if they can work out the kinks in the Mobley/J.Allen combo.  IMO, it's just not going to work.  Wood would be perfect with Mobley.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

One area of concern that Kidd has to manage is allowing Hardy to grow into THJ's role. You want to somewhat feature THJ for his trade value, but at the same time you want to let Hardy earn it with minutes.

[Chicagojk]

It is weird, in such an awful season last year, I generally liked what I saw with Kyrie and his demeanor on the court. We will see if it stays that way.

https://twitter.com/dallasmavs/status/16...70336?s=46&t=iwQP5yZoJF3Ulzfb9MH7Cg

Btw the DMN had a pretty cool story how the mavs helped DFS get out of jail after 29 years. Cool story.

[myconsumerclub]

Lively is our best option out there sooner or later IF we do not add another center. I am doubtful we are swinging a deal for anyone that is a major talent and we should have just grabbed a free agent center from whoever was available at the start of free agency. Lively is going to start sooner than most of you think and he already has shown he has the rebounding and defensive intimidation to keep guards and wings out of the paint. I am not worried if he makes a few rookie mistakes a game the MAVS should be more talented than most teams and be strong enough to overcome that occasional mishap. The addition of far more potent defense is a huge upgrade that makes it more likely we can overcome a few mistakes by our rookies and that just teaches them the game faster so they can get to the point where they are able to play without making many mistakes. That is the kind of investment I want to see the team make in our rookies. PLAY THEM and develop them they are the future.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Lively is our best option out there sooner or later IF we do not add another center. I am doubtful we are swinging a deal for anyone that is a major talent and we should have just grabbed a free agent center from whoever was available at the start of free agency. Lively is going to start sooner than most of you think and he already has shown he has the rebounding and defensive intimidation to keep guards and wings out of the paint. I am not worried if he makes a few rookie mistakes a game the MAVS should be more talented than most teams and be strong enough to overcome that occasional mishap. The addition of far more potent defense is a huge upgrade that makes it more likely we can overcome a few mistakes by our rookies and that just teaches them the game faster so they can get to the point where they are able to play without making many mistakes. That is the kind of investment I want to see the team make in our rookies. PLAY THEM and develop them they are the future.

I think this for OMax, but not Lively.  Lively is RAW.

[BigDirk41]

I think this for OMax, but not Lively.  Lively is RAW.

I disagree. Lively is going to play significant minutes this year and will be a starter before the playoffs.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I disagree. Lively is going to play significant minutes this year and will be a starter before the playoffs.

Do you have a comparable to a rookie C only playing 20mins his freshman season getting "significant" minutes and starting his rookie year?  I can't think of one.