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[DanSchwartzgan]

I don't think your comps hold up. It's cherry-picking one aspect of the values in a trade, without including the rest.

For example, re the value of Holmes ---in taking Holmes, the pick being paid wasn't about the value of Holmes the player per se, but rather the value of the Mavs eating $12M of cap room for SAC this summer (and next summer too), since no player being sent in return. That swap tells us more about the value of cap room, and less about the value being placed on Holmes as a player.

These ideas don't have ATL taking on Holmes contract to create cap room for DAL, but rather a swap of cap obligations. In fact, ATL is the one getting payroll reduction (about 3M this season, and about 6M overall).

Re the value of Capela himself related to ANY trade -- in the draft day proposals, ATL's ask of Green (and also a pick swap) was not necessarily about the value of Capela at all, but rather the perceived diff in usefulness between Bertans and Capella. 
CAPELA for BERTANS, with Green/swap being the tip they asked.

That doesn't give us any indication of what Capela himself is worth to ATL overall, but only in relation to Bertans (who is not part of this trade idea). If they get back 2 lesser paid centers with differing styles and strengths, who they can use to back up Okongwu, and free up minutes for Okongwu by being rid of Capela, without having to pay someone to take Capela's contract off their payroll, and also reduce their overall payroll in the process, maybe it's enough.

I would add that I don't think Capela's price tag, whatever it is, is way far from what the Mavs have to offer. These talks would have put buried long ago if that was not the case imo. And I have to wonder if the issue at this point is more about getting past the Holmes trade restriction than anything else. They don't need Siakam to be incoming to want to move off of Capela and free up minutes for Okongwu and his smaller contract.

There is a ton of good perspective in this post.  Well done!

My only add is I wonder if it is the Bufkin deadline more than the Holmes deadline.  If this is a KAT trade instead of a Siakam trade, you can break it up in a way where Holmes doesn’t have to be aggregated.

Three way is Holmes to Atlanta/Anderson to Dallas and a couple of young guys to Minnesota from Atlanta (Bufkin plus the other $2+mm it takes to match Holmes incoming for Atlanta)

Then the bigger trade has Atlanta sending Hunter to Minnesota and Capela to Dallas.  KAT goes to ATL and THJ goes to Minnesota.  This could wait until September and be one big aggregated trade, but the only thing that really changes is Atlanta doesn’t have to send out a fourth body (the small salary on top of Bufkin needed to match Holmes in the non-aggregated trade).

I kind of like this for everyone.  Holmes backs up Okongwu with KAT playing PF.  Minnesota could use THJ’s shooting.  Conley gives Bufkin a year to acclimate and Hunter and McDaniels are their starting wings.  The only role Anderson really plays here is buying a year for OMax to acclimate.  Capela is the same for Lively, but on a two year basis.