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[F Gump]

I could be convinced we could do an Anderson for Timmy swap, but Holmes is also a distressed asset (we just got a first to take on that contract) and the ask for Capela was Green or Hardy.  The price may go down a little in order to facilitate a big trade, but they are not going to go from Hardy or Green to distressed asset and a couple of seconds.  At least I find it very unlikely, and I don't like to get my hopes up on that kind of thing.

I don't think your comps hold up. It's cherry-picking one aspect of the values in a trade, without including the rest.

For example, re the value of Holmes ---in taking Holmes, the pick being paid wasn't about the value of Holmes the player per se, but rather the value of the Mavs eating $12M of cap room for SAC this summer (and next summer too), since no player being sent in return. That swap tells us more about the value of cap room, and less about the value being placed on Holmes as a player.

These ideas don't have ATL taking on Holmes contract to create cap room for DAL, but rather a swap of cap obligations. In fact, ATL is the one getting payroll reduction (about 3M this season, and about 6M overall).

Re the value of Capela himself related to ANY trade -- in the draft day proposals, ATL's ask of Green (and also a pick swap) was not necessarily about the value of Capela at all, but rather the perceived diff in usefulness between Bertans and Capella. 
CAPELA for BERTANS, with Green/swap being the tip they asked.

That doesn't give us any indication of what Capela himself is worth to ATL overall, but only in relation to Bertans (who is not part of this trade idea). If they get back 2 lesser paid centers with differing styles and strengths, who they can use to back up Okongwu, and free up minutes for Okongwu by being rid of Capela, without having to pay someone to take Capela's contract off their payroll, and also reduce their overall payroll in the process, maybe it's enough.

I would add that I don't think Capela's price tag, whatever it is, is way far from what the Mavs have to offer. These talks would have put buried long ago if that was not the case imo. And I have to wonder if the issue at this point is more about getting past the Holmes trade restriction than anything else. They don't need Siakam to be incoming to want to move off of Capela and free up minutes for Okongwu and his smaller contract.