07-21-2023, 12:56 PM
(07-21-2023, 10:03 AM)RDB Wrote: Maybe I am drinking the Kool-aide on the second year projection but I believe Lively will be Jarrett Allen 2.0. Frankly, even though I am in favor of integrating him into the lineup slowly, if the Mav’s choose to throw him into the fire, I believe he would have comparable production to year 1 Allen. Allen started 31 games his rookie year and posted 8.2 pts, 5.4 reb, 1.2 blks on 20 minutes/game. With Luka and Kyrie, I think he could easily replicate those numbers in the second half.
I agree the Mavs approach will be to work Lively in slowly. Note Allen didn't start until game #51 for a team that went 31-51. The Nets were rolling with Mozgov and Zeller for the most part and working Allen in. He was averaging about 17 minutes a game coming off the bench for a bad team. The Nets traded Zeller, and Mozgov was taken on a snipe hunt and was never seen again--clearing the way for Allen to start. The Nets had nothing to lose. The Mavs have a ton to lose in my my mind, so 17 minutes for Lively seems like a lot right now. I'd predict Holmes and Powell get around 35 minutes combined. Kleber may be the closer for around 5 minutes in Q4 with and additional 15 minutes sprinkled here and there at the 4 and 5. That doesn't leave much for Lively. (And, I am still really bullish on Holmes after a deep dive into the 21-22 season.)
I was steadfast in opposition to Lively pre-draft, but I was won over by interviews and articles post-draft and the effort and energy I saw in Summer League. I am confident he will work his tail off and make it harder and harder for Kidd to keep him sidelined. Pour me a glass of that Kool-aide, RDB!