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[DanSchwartzgan]

I agree if that’s the return for Kyrie to Miami, Luka is as good as gone. What’s the most cap space they can get to if they dump Lowry for air and we don’t play ball? Wouldn’t they still need to dump Dipo and Herro to get Kyrie $?

Just to be clear with everyone, I’m not advocating for a Kyrie to Miami trade with Herro, Dipo and Jovic as the return (even if they added a future pick).  I’m trying to think through the “what could go wrong” side of this.

People think Kyrie to Houston rumors are about getting Kyrie more money.  They could just as easily be about forcing the Mav’s to send him where he wants to go rather than losing him for nothing.  I think Miami would certainly have interest in Kyrie as the missing piece for the rest of the Jimmy/Bam era.  And it isn’t hard to imagine Kyrie wanting to join.  So, it comes down to Miami being able to dump salary to be eligible for a S&T (I think they can) and putting together a package for Dallas.

Here is an important aspect of this if we assume Kyrie wants out and Dallas takes the Houston threat seriously.  The Miami package DOES NOT have to equal what we gave up to get Kyrie.  It DOES NOT have to represent fair value in the market place.  All it has to do is be better than what Dallas could do in the open market with cap room and the room MLE (vs. the Miami package and the full MLE).  Without Kyrie, Dallas suddenly needs another creator.  Who in the FA market is better at that than Herro?  Where would Jovic be taken in the current draft if he were available.  I would submit it would be much higher than last year’s #27:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EToc4VjAoiQ

Dipo is injured and can’t be counted on to be more that salary filler (though he is expiring filler).  I personally don’t think we can use cap space any better than this in free agency.  Yes, there is a theoretical trade out there that is better than Herro/Jovic.  But, what is that trade and is it realistic.  This would be a bit of a reset around #10, Jovic, Green and Hardy with Luka and Herro being the scorers.  We still need a shut down big in the paint.  But, that was the case with Irving, so that hasn’t changed in this scenario.  Again, not my preferred outcome, but I struggle to trust that Kyrie won’t screw us.  One more thing about cap room vs. assets…if we take cap room, we gave up SD, DFS and 2029 for nothing.  If we take Herro/Jovic, we can at least debate the relative value of those two groups of players over time.