(05-02-2023, 09:52 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: It started for me with the cryptic tweet from Demaris (inferring the Mav's offseason is tied to Miami). It is easy for me to imagine Miami wanting to sub Kyrie for Lowry for the remainder of the Butler window. I can also see Brooklyn wanting to send Kyrie west (requiring a two step process for Miami to get him back to the east). Then it becomes a matter of price and timing.
I played around with some stuff Sunday night and then had to make amendments because I was trying to use the Bullock partial guarantee and had the timing wrong (sound familiar?). I mention the timeline because last night I searched for Herro trade rumors to see how he was valued in Miami (since Miami is having playoff success without him right now). I found several Herro/Lowry for Kyrie based rumors both last summer and at the TDL. There was one really good article at the TDL that explained how a Kyrie/Mills for Herro/Lowry/Jovic deal would work with Herro's PP. So, ideas like this are in the public domain if the SGITR can do a Google search.
I tend to agree that the trade leaves me wanting a bit (maybe the sign of a balanced trade?). The issues I have are:
1. It doesn't solve the center situation. Something else would need to be done. Fortunately, Dallas (in the proposed deal) would have Miami's 23 pick (18th) and their own 27 pick to address this. Whatever Lively becomes, he's not likely to be a playoff starter in year one. So, Dallas would need to either use the TP MLE to get a center and draft Lively to develop or send the pick(s) out to bring in a more experienced center (Capela, Claxton et al...the usual suspects).
2. I didn't intend to trade Hardy. Unfortunately, given the need to make this pre 7/1, we just don't have many contracts to work with to hit the very specific dollar targets. So, I settled on Kyrie, McGee and Hardy. Moving McGee in this has value. Maybe Hardy can go to a third team creating another asset for Dallas as his going to Miami feels like an overpay.
3. The draft compensation feels light compared to the unprotected 2029 we gave up. Maybe Miami's unprotected 2027 would be more valuable than #18 in the upcoming draft. Maybe it needs to be #18 to make up for Hardy's inclusion AND Miami's 2027 to compensate for the Dallas 2029.
I do like other elements of the deal compared to what we gave Brooklyn:
1. Herro replaces Dinwiddie. Herro is younger (with upside) and tied up for years where we were going to need to negotiate with Dinwiddie very soon. I think that is a clear upgrade.
2. Lowry is about done, but as a bench PG who holds down the spot for a year (and expires along with Bertans and Reggie), he has some value. The Dallas cap sheet would clean up a ton a year from now. I really like Wallace with #10 and a year of Lowry would better prepare Wallace to take over the backup PG role with a similar defensive ability to what Lowry used to provide.
3. I think Jovic has a much brighter future than DFS. I'm not anti-Dorian, but he showed a serious regression prior to being traded. What he did was valuable, but I think we've seen peak Dorian. Jovic is already a ton more skilled in a bigger body that is cost controlled. You won't see this looking at stats. You'll need to watch film of his better games (NBA and GLeague). He might turn into Markkanen in the not too distant future. We still have Maxi around to keep us from being too reliant on Jovic's inexperience.
Another interesting aspect of this (for me) is Herro and Jovic are both Excel clients. Schwartz always seems to be entwined with Dallas in years Powell is a FA and has leveraged that to Powell's advantage. To me, there is a lot that makes sense about all of this...especially if you think Dameris might have some inkling of what is coming.
A. This feels like it's way over Cuban's head, both in imagining what and why, and in having the negotiating skill to do it. From past experience, it's fairly certain that if he tried it, he'd get raped in the deal. I hate to be so skeptical, but you have to be after so many years of ineptitude.
B. But it's a good model to think about (and wish for) for the Mavs to do, even if imo (and yours) it feels a bit light in what they will net. Kyrie is a special offensive talent, and I think he's less of an issue than he's typically painted. Your latest idea to include 2 1sts, 2023 and a later one that's unprotected (earliest possible is 2028), does make more sense to me. I think that's the right ballpark of what they should get.
C. Thanks for thinking through the timeline issues and cap totals and salary matching, because it's so tricky to work through, but vital to think about the differences between June and July with the changes coming. On this one, I didn't take time to double-check all the various numbers or details fwiw, but in looking a bit closer I do think this has to be a July deal (S&T) and can't be a June deal (E&T).
D. All of that having been said, the hardest part of the deal seems like it would be how to navigate Kyrie. Or it might not be hard at all. IMO they probably need to find some way to work WITH Kyrie no matter what they do, if they want to come out ahead in the long run, whether it's on a new deal in July or a S&T deal and destination. Unfortunately Cuban has a long history of screwing over players AFTER promising to work with them on this or that, a fact well known around the league, so he might get more cooperation from Kyrie in a S&T to a trustworthy team than on a deal staying in Dallas.