04-23-2023, 10:14 AM
(04-23-2023, 08:50 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I'm not smart enough to figure out what draft compensation (if any) would be outgoing on someone who could threaten to walk if they don't get their way. But, Draymond certainly fits the mold of what is needed here. 99th percentile defender who can swing between PF and C. 80th percentile defensive rebounder and 90th percentile in assists (on a team that really needs a third ball handler). Josh and Hardy both shot 3's better than THJ this season (and 3's are supposed to be his strength). So Hardaway's minutes are easily replaced. The question is what draft compensation goes along with the outgoing players. This conversation goes back to the Dameris and Followell podcast. If you listen to them, I don't think they could have been more clear that trading for someone with a PO is what the Mav's should do. Other than Middleton, Green is the only player who fits what they were describing. BTW, if this is done without involving the 2017 pick, I think a Bertans + 2027 for Turner is still on the table even if we already have Draymond. We still need a center as Draymond, Maxi and Powell aren't enough.
I think biggest motivation for GSW would be to get zero (or minimal) salary back, which means a third team. They have Kuminga, who can take Greens minutes. So they either just let him walk for nothing or help him get to a team of his choosing, but without salary going back. I don't think any of Mavs players have close enough value to offset the huge tax GSW would pay for them. It makes more sense for them to get a big TE and then use it for a better player if they want. They have nice trade assets, both in draft capital and young players, so they could easily do something that has far more value then the likes of THJ or Bullock.
The price of dumping Bertans and McGee to a team with cap space (San Antonio and perhaps Indy are prime candidates) is imho a lottery protected first. So my ideal deal would still be:
Ind: Bertans, THJ, McGee, #10, 2027
Dal: Turner, Green,#29 from Indy
GSW: #26 from Indy
Or alternatively, if Turner is not available:
Ind or SA: Bertans, McGee, #19 from GSW
Dal: Green
GSW: #10 from Dallas
Charlotter is another option:
Cha: Bertans, McGee, #10
Dal: Green, one of young Charlotte centers (Kai Jones?) as a back up center for Dallas
GSW: #27 from Charlotte
If GSW is still willing to finance 200+ mil of salary, then the calculation gets different. Then I guess their compensation demand would be bigger.
On the other hand, the Kyrie example doesn't really support my valuation. It was pretty much obvious he would not stay in BKN, was a half a year rental, yet Dallas paid two solid players and unprotected FRP for him.