12-07-2022, 07:53 AM
(12-06-2022, 08:34 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: With a bigger sample size the next few weeks should tell us where the team is headed. Right now record and team metrics don´t match. 14-9 expected win/loss. 6th in SRS.
Mavs lead the league in clutch games (16) and have a 8-8 record in those.
They only have one double digit loss (-11 vs Boston). Compared to four double digit wins (+43 vs Grizzlies, +28 vs Denver, +21 vs Knicks, +19 vs Suns).
The Mavs blew a couple of leads. Struggled to turn 4th quarter leads into wins. Western conference is still super close so they have enough time to bounce back. I guess the big takeaway is that the margin of error is razor-thin. If the Mavs continue to drop games against teams like Houston or Orlando they are in trouble.
They say SRS, Net Rating and Expected W/L (all 7th this morning) are a better predictor of playoff success than actual record. 7th best record (instead of tied for 7th in the west) is about what I expected when the season began. Of course, I alternate where I think we are based on what happened in the most recent game. The emotional swings have been huge.
Still, it is pretty easy to imagine how 14-10 might have happened instead of 13-11. It is only two games and we've had so many come-from-ahead losses and bone headed nights against terrible teams. It feels like we are settling in on a rotation and maybe with less experimentation we'll get a more consistent outcome.