MAVS NEWS: Luka Is Hurt, But is Trudging On | DLive's Mom Passes Away| Maxi OUT

[mvossman]

I wanted to spend a little time on this while I had some time today.  First, let me say that I'd probably have tried Wood/Maxi starting (with DFS/Green/Luka) if it were me.  But, there are some challenges to making the rest of the rotation work around this lineup.

1. I think we have to consider Maxi's limitations as about a 24 minute a game guy.  If you want him to start and finish halves, then his 24 minutes would be the first and last six minutes of each half.  There just isn't much point in subbing him out sooner than six minutes into the half.  Most teams leave starters in for about 8 minutes, sit them for 8 and bring them back for the final 8.  Maxi can't quite do that.  You can play around and do 8 on then 12 off then 4 on, but ultimately the issue is the same.

2. Pairing Maxi with Wood to start and finish halves together eats up most of Wood's minutes.  This is a good thing as they play well together.  But, if Wood gets 32, then you have about 4 minutes a half of Wood as solo-big and then need 8 minutes a half with Powell as solo-big.  Yes, you can overlap that some by playing Powell more minutes.  Kidd has only tried that 17 minutes all season.  Instead Kidd is giving Wood and Powell (or McGee when he plays) about the amount of solo-big minutes listed above.  So, the lineup change is essentially just mixing up when they occur with one exception... the unintended consequence of moving Wood/Maxi to starter status and Powell to the bench is....

3.  We only have one Dorian.  If you want him starting and finishing halves, there isn't enough of him to also play during the solo-big minutes for Wood and Powell.  Without him we are playing those minutes with an undersized center and a bunch of guards.   When you put Wood/Maxi/DFS together for significant time there just isn't enough Dorian to also cover 16 minutes of Powell-solo big time and 8 minutes of Wood solo-big time and play.  

I think you need another player like Maxi or DFS to make the Maxi/Wood starting lineup work.  Or, you have to split up the Wood/Maxi/DFS starting trio.  That is essentially what Kidd has done.  He's just chosen to do it differently by starting Powell/DFS.   They are +5.6 together.  Maxi with Wood come off the bench and are +8.4.  Going the other way around, the pairings aren't nearly as good.  Wood/DFS is -2.6.  Powell/Maxi +0.0.  And, the 3-man lineups with Luka are also better the way Kidd is doing it.  Powell/DFS/Luka is +9.3.  Wood/Maxi/Luka is +16.  Wood/DFS/Luka is -4.6.  I think if we hid the names your affinity for +/- might lead you to the same conclusion as Kidd if you take into account that DFS can't play 48 minutes.  At the very least, what he's doing isn't idiotic or stubborn or a plot to undermine the team or the GM.

As I've said before, I'd prioritize building up Wood's minutes over starting him.  That might change if we traded for someone like Crowder.  Short of that, the Powell/DFS and Wood/Maxi pairings make a lot of sense.   It feels to me like Kidd is trying to make the shortcomings of Powell and Wood work as best he can while also positioning things to have DFS and Maxi finish halves.  I'd probably prefer to continue playing around with what Kidd is doing around Powell/DFS/Luka (the THJ experiment).  I might also try a Green experiment and even a THJ/Green experiment (moving SD to the bench) before I'd go through the gyrations necessary to make a Wood/Maxi starting lineup work.  Even more important than that though would be to find a closing lineup that works and give that group time to gel before the playoffs...especially if that grouping includes a younger player like Green.  He needs reps if he's going to be counted on in that role.

Some really good points here.  If you take it even farther, Powell is the only player Din plays well with and very surprisingly Green is the only player he plays poorly with (two of the highest net rating guys are -10 together).  Arguments to keep Din in the starting lineup and Green out of it if you are going with Powell.  On top of that, the starting lineup (pre Timmy) has by far the most minutes and is a net +10.  It does not really seem to be the problem (the second most minutes is the previous starting lineup with McGee instead of Powell.  It is a net -11.  No wonder Powell on/off looks so good).

All that being said, if we are going to stick with Powell in the starting lineup and give Timmy a real run, Din has to come off the bench.  I don't think we can survive Luka/Timmy/Din long term from a defensive perspective.  You could make a real argument for going with:

Starting  Powell/DFS/Green/Timmy/Luka

Bench    Maxi/Wood/Bullock/Frank/Din