11-30-2022, 02:32 PM
(11-30-2022, 02:24 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: My instinct sees it this way also. He performs a supposedly vital function both with Luka and without. His stats individually are really good. But, you can’t discount the On/Off stuff based just on the eye-test.
SD has a negative net rating with every single regular (even Green) except one. That one, who SD seems to work with, is Powell (who saw that coming as you read that sentence) and it is pretty massively positive. This may be one of those times when you have to be careful about the message netting on vs. off is sending.
Some of SD’s bad NET rating is because this team isn’t that good without Luka and who plays PG when Luka sits? SD. But even those numbers are strange. You’d expect the O numbers for Luka w/o SD to be strong (and they are at 124). But, how in the world is the D number 107 when Luka is w/o SD? Are we really going to give Luka credit for that (and SD blame), or does it relate more to who plays with who.
Two other oddities. SD plays better in losses in terms of his individual numbers (find it in his splits for wins and losses at B-Ref). HOWEVER, five of his six worst On minus Off performances this year have been in losses (which backs up Kamm’s “fools gold” theory). So, he kills it individually in losses, but the team still loses. Is that on SD? Is good play from him ‘causing’ the loss? Or, is something else bad going on elsewhere in the lineup and we lose despite his good play.
LOADS of great thoughts here, and all with an open mind.
It's probably a bit early to make hard conclusions, but my current takeaway is about fit and synergy. I thought that would be a problem before the season, to be transparent, so there might be some confirmation bias at work here. I admit it. But, I'm sorry, I just do not think it's a coincidence that they found a way to win down the stretch of the game Dinwiddie was ejected from. In a separate but related point, I also don't think it's a coincidence that THJ's first good game of the entire season happened on his second night in the starting lineup.