MAVS NEWS: Luka Is Hurt, But is Trudging On | DLive's Mom Passes Away| Maxi OUT

[mvossman]

Transition year or not, he's not wrong about more Green and more Wood.  The starting lineup should be comprised of our best players with complimentary skills assuming there isn't something about the combination that isn't working.  

There are six Mav players with above average EPM's:  Luka, SD, Wood, Powell, Green and DFS.  Everyone else is in the 29th percentile or lower.  In terms of combo's, here are the best two man combo's that are +10 and have been used over 100 minutes:

Luka/Green  24.8
Wood/Green 18.7
THJ/Green 16.0
Maxi/Green  14.1
Maxi/Wood  14.0
DFS/Green  14.0
THJ/Wood  11.8
Wood/Luka  10.2

Notice anything...two of our top six players show up consistently.  Green shows up five times and Wood four times (Luka twice and DFS once).  Two below average players, Maxi and THJ, show up two times.  Either they are being dragged onto these lists by Green and Wood or there is something unique about the combination that works that doesn't work as well when THJ and Maxi play with other players.

Notice also that two of our top six EPM players, don't make this list at all...Powell and Dinwiddie.  They start to show up in the next tier of moderately positive net ratings of 1-10 still with minutes played above 100:

Powell/SD  8.5
Powell/Luka  7.3
Powell/RB  6.2
Maxi/Luka  3.9
Powell/DFS  3.7
THJ/Maxi 3.5
Green/SD 3.0
Green/RB 2.1

Starting to put this together, Luka/Wood/Green are the musts.  In fact, they are our top 3-man lineup at 35.3.  The next group of top 3-man lineups also support the idea of Luka/Wood/Green as the core.  They are:  THJ/Luka/Green, Wood/Maxi/Green, DFS/Luka/Green, THJ/Wood/Green and Wood/Maxi/Luka.  All combo's contain two from among Luka/Wood/Green.  The only other three man lineups with a net rating over 10 are THJ/Wood/Maxi and THJ/Maxi/Green

Next up, you have to figure out who else to add.  Seems to me that one spot goes to a big...either Powell or Maxi.  Powell is the higher EPM player and Maxi shows up more often in the most successful lineups.  Given what we saw in the playoffs, I think it has to be Maxi (Powell is Dinwiddie's best pairing, so that is the beginning of the bench unit).  

Finally we need another non-big.  Similar dilemma.  Dinwiddie shows up as our second best EPM player, but doesn't show up in hardly any of the top lineups.  Dinwiddie and Luka together are -7.7.  So, I think he's out.  THJ does show up in a lot of the top lineups.  In fact, our best four man lineup is THJ/Wood/Luka/Green.  But, THJ is playing like crap.  DFS is above average at EPM (and historically is in the 80's instead of the current mid-60's).  His four man combo with Luka/Wood/Green is also very good.  I think DFS gets the nod.  He's the better defender playing for a coach that values D.  Plus, with everything running through Luka and Wood, Hardaway's ability to create O is more valuable on the bench.  I also think THJ's selfishness would hold back the development of Green.

So, that is how I come up with Maxi/Wood/DFS/Green Luka as starters and Powell/THJ/RB/SD as the core of the bench.  I'd probably try to platoon these groups at 32 minutes and 16 minutes as best I could to let them get comfortable together.  I get that Maxi probably can't hold up to that.  Fine play him 24.  It gives you a few minutes with Wood at center and lets THJ and/or SD get their minutes in the 20's.

This is where I have landed as well.  The offense obviously revolves around Luka/Wood action, and you surround that with your best defensive players.  I think Dorian will look a lot better on defense with Green taking on the point of attack, and Maxi has shown the ability to help cover for Wood.

I also think Din makes the most sense as 6th man.  He obviously needs to run the offense when Luka is off the court, and I think he makes most sense playing with Luka to finish games when the opposing defense is most intense.  Powell has always been more effective against second units and Bullock needs to earn his minutes back.