07-15-2022, 02:28 PM
(07-15-2022, 02:02 PM)Kammrath Wrote: It is based on two things:
1) My personal eye test of having watched virtually all the minutes of both players. Luka is the far better individual player at the same age, but Dirk was the far better IMO of fitting into the team reality and helping elevate the whole of the team play. Luka has transcendent moments where he absolutely lifts the play of the whole team in incredible ways, but he has a lot of moments where he is a big detriment defensively, in effort, and in selfishness. Dirk is one of the GOATs in elevating the play of those around him. When Dirk got on the court his teams almost always became a totally different monster that were really, really hard to beat. The Mavs almost always lost games when Dirk was sitting.
2) On/Off +/-
- Luka's four seasons (before starting a season aged 23): -3.7, +1.2, +3.0, +0.2
- Dirk's three seasons (before starting a season aged 23): +2.6, +5.9, +17.7
Also, I don't know what "best advanced metrics" you are referring to. I do not think there were any trustworthy advanced metrics in 99, 00, and 01.
One more note: Luka has been better as a playoff performer than Dirk was at the same age.
From what I have read, the accepted best advanced box score stat out there is BPM. That is based on industry opinion as well as empirical testing. Based on that, Dirk took a huge leap in his third year to 5.4. That was his first year in the playoffs and he played even better in the playoffs at 6.3. Luka was 8.2 this last season and an even better 9.3 in the playoffs.
On/off has so much noise in it its tough to get a lot out of it without more context. Just looking at those numbers in a vacuum, it suggests Luka is a slightly better than average NBA player. We know that to be wildly inaccurate. So how am I supposed to interpret that on/off? What does it really mean?
I don't claim to have watched as much Mavericks as you have, but my eye test was that it took a while for Dirk to have a transcendent impact. It felt to me like it took him several years to get to that point.