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[HoosierDaddyKid]

Even though MVP is a regular season award, titles and relative greatness do come into play. 

Jokic may lose some MVP votes this year, based on his relative standing as an "all-time great." The number of players in NBA history who have won 3-or-more MVPs is very short, and the fact Jokic has only won 1 title doesn't quite align with putting him in that pantheon.

The same is true for Giannis.

Jokic is on track to win this year, but I also think a significant number of voters are looking for someone else. And if Jokic wins and DEN does not win the title, I think Jokic's chances of future MVP's will be hammered.

What holds Luka back is lack of much team or playoff success up to this point in his career, and this year's playoffs will have an impact on his future chances. If the Mavs make it farther than DEN, voters are likely to think "We owe Luka an MVP" if Jokic wins it.

Tatum will get votes due to team success, and he could land in that "owe you one" category if BOS wins the title. I don't think a Finals berth would be enough.

Counting stats also carry more weight than we realize -- so Luka's scoring title and closeness to a season Triple Double will also come into play, as will his multiple years of elite play (as compared to SGA, for example).

Even though rarely mentioned at the time, the "all-time history" issue was a large obstacle against Jokic for last year's MVP, since winning MVP 3-in-a-row is even more rarified air. I think it's only Russell, Chamberlain, Bird.

Agreed. But Luka has to win a title first before he gets real serious consideration for MVP. All the others you named have done so.