(11-13-2023, 04:50 PM)Nowitzki Way Wrote: The lack of size mostly. Which accounts for all the points in the paint given up. The lack of rebounding.
Our best big is a 19 year old rookie who the refs hate at the moment. The rest of the "bigs" are Powell (soft), Kleber (washed), Holmes (washed).
We've already seen this being a huge problem in our two losses (Denver / Toronto).
I'm not sold on the perimeter D being much better than the past either. But we seem to be improving in that area.
Then the injury factor. Luka and Kyrie have not been the healthiest duo in their careers. I think we can pretty much chalk up 15-20 games each season that these two will lose out on injury. Having one of them out really stretches the rotation. Having both out at the same time for a long stretch would be a killer.
Lastly, i'm not a huge fan of the roster construction. We just don't fit the typical championship model. We seem to have ill-fitting parts. The lack of size is just the beginning.
Of course, i hope i'm terribly wrong and we win 50+ games and get a top 4 seed. I just see us more in the 40-42 win group, which is about par for a play-in game.
And honestly there isnt much of a difference between a 50 win team and a 40 win team. Most of the difference is luck (avoiding injuries) and execution (coaching). And now that i mention coaching, i'm not the biggest fan of Jason Kidd's in game coaching. I think he's great behind the scenes. I mean for the guys in the NBA now he's a legend. An NBA champion and Hall of Famer. But he's not an X's and O's type coach.
You don't need to look at DJJ and Grant and think they are amazing defensively, but looking at them and saying they are a huge upgrade on wing defense from what we had last season should be obvious even in a small sample size. We 100% need a true backup big, and one of those 6'8/6'9 defensive wings (basically the finished version of what we hope Omax can be), but I would bet on perimeter D being much better than last season being very real. Have to also factor in that DJJ and Grant are completely new and can potentially improve cohesion even more with the rest of the team as the season goes on. The length is an issue (but only against a specific small number of teams), but that can 100% be at least partially mitigated with some smart trades at the deadline (or Omax potentially coming along quicker than we anticipate).
Our competition arguably have just as many if not more injury concerns on their rosters than we do. Many of them are older with stars and role players with far worse injury histories. Not a real reason for us to be held back as the logic can be used for those other teams too.
As for roster construction I agree to an extent, but if the length issues can be mitigated by the trades I mentioned above, IMO the one other issue of a third reliable ball handler could genuinely be solved by Exum. Certainly not convinced yet, but he legit could see a huge expanded role as the season goes on and be exactly what we need as a third ball handler, who can also really defend at 6'6. Love his quickness and fearlessness driving into the paint. The only parts to keep an eye on are 3 point shooting and whether he can finish well.
Kidds in game coaching is IMO not as big of a deal as long as he has the defensive pieces. He's a defensive coach, and that's the area of the game I expect he will provide the difference in. What he did with our defense his first season with a roster that had zero business being that good defensively should not be overlooked as much as it is. You don't have to be an X and O's coach as long as you can provide something else to offset that deficiency, and if he can get the defense to play above itself like he did that first season, it would make up for it.