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[mvossman]

Oh, I'll definitely take the over.  He was 12.6 points in the game where he got minutes and the vibes were not immaculate last year.  This year's O is going to be way better. 

And timidity did decline last year in games where he got minutes.  As I posted...in the >25 minute games (when he was in some kind of flow) he took twice as many shots per 36 (10.1) as when he didn't get those minutes (4.8).  So, 8.9 is an average that will go up if you cut out the low minute games as a consistent starter.  

He hits 1.42 points per shot attempt when he gets minutes which is elite for a guard.  So, what do you want to drop that to?  1.25 is still very good and at 10 shots that's 12.5 without any kind of a step forward.  10 points a game is a layup for starter Green.

I hope your right.  I tend to fall into the group of guys that question the cause/effect of Greens better numbers when +25 minutes.  Your entire argument is banking on him being a completely different player when he gets those minutes, and I don't think a 33 game sample is big enough to come to that conclusion.