10-03-2023, 06:59 PM
(10-03-2023, 05:14 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: 3. 21 of the >25 minute games were at full strength (both Luka and Kyrie or Luka and SD). There isn't really evidence these happened because he was playing well or more aggressive. In fact, there are all sorts of low scoring games in this sample. 12 of the 21 games saw him score in single digits including one game where he got 0 points in 28 minutes.
Two things I am seeing in this "Josh just needs more minutes" conclusion that would make me instead really loath to offer him massive money:
1. Your data in the quote above doesn't impress re JG's value. In what you consider his "good" subset, he was a non-factor on offense more often than not (12 games out of 21). That's no recommendation for paying him beyond MLE money, and hints more that he just had a few good games that skewed the averages.
2 As mvossman notes, his track record is NOT one where his timidity went away last season. It's exactly the same. Per-36, he takes 9 shots.
...And the THJ analogy doesn't make JG the solution. What we need is a player who will be aggressive taking shots when they are available to him, and then make them in an efficient manner. We don't get that with THJ, but neither is JG the answer because he passes up possible shots. (And if the answer is that he will have worse efficiency if he shoots more, then that is not a plus for JG. This is why Hollinger placed value in his PER on "usage.")
In relation to the Vassell deal, I will say again what I have said to the idea that his agents will demand 20M or more a season for him. I wouldn't pay it now, no way in the world. If you think someone else will pay it in the summer because they got Vassell (a different, much better player) a deal starting at 25M, then you trade him (now, deadline, or SNT). At his current level of shooting timidity, he's fun to watch because of all the energy, but he's just not worth numbers like that in what we have seen from him so far.