10-03-2023, 12:37 PM
(10-03-2023, 08:28 AM)omahen Wrote: A couple of questions. How many of those +25 minutes are in games without Luka and Kyrie? We all saw he was great as the lead man when stars were out. Definitely looked much different. He will have to learn and get his shots in games with both stars on the court to maximize his potential.I don't want to interject much in this discussion cause I find myself between the two points of view (and I don't see your take as hate either, just you trying to be fair), if anything I lean towards Dan's point of view cause I like Green so much, he won me over in a game I attended last year where he was so much everywhere on the court that you couldn't not watch him.
Is it possible his >25 minutes games are when he is playing well and his <25 are when he is not? Did he play less because others had to play or did he play less because he just wasn't particularly impactful in those games? Basically saying, that Green has some good games where he plays a lot and some not so great ones where he doesn't.
I think answers to these questions really shed the light on who Green really is. We have all watched games and we all saw "passive" Green a lot of times. Green that is just invisible (passive), who doesn't get the ball or even doesn't shoot it always when he could. I don't think you can just take these kind of stats as a proof that Green is great but just needs minutes, without providing the context to why he played less or more.
I don't think you can simply ignore low number of shots taken and discard it as a consequence of low minutes. We saw and could compare how Hardy plays related to Green. He has zero problems taking his shots even with both stars on the court. Green and Hardy took same amount of shots on average. Green played 25 minutes on average, Hardy played 15 minutes on average. Hardaway played 30 minutes per game and took 12 shots per game, almost twice as much as Green. Green is much closer to guys like Bullock, Dorian or Maxi regarding the number of shots. With the difference, that those guys are really limited in what they can do on the court, know their limits and play within them. Green can do much more than those guys, but there are other reasons why he doesn't take so many shots. I hope he can grow past that and keep his efficiency.
Having guys who are good defenders and can hit an open shot with good efficiency is great. They are worth around MLE. Guys that are paid more are the ones who can do more than just take an open shot here and there. So far, Green only showed flashes he can do more. In order to be worth more, he needs to be consistent. Taking more shots and keeping efficiency. So based on that, Green is worth MLE based on what he showed. In order to get paid more, he needs to show more. One can of course believe, he will be able to overcome whatever barriers he has preventing him to be better. If you believe that, you pay him more. If he reaches his potential, great. If not, you have a bad contract on your hands.
Or, you can offer max MLE level money. If he doesn't accept the deal, you have the restricted status working for you. If he starts playing like a great two way wing, you can always pay him accordingly. The gamble in this case of course is, that he might take a 15 mil offer now, but gets a 25 mil offer in the summer, while being valued at 20 mil. But somehow, I do prefer this kind of gamble. Personally, I am just not convinced, he can reach a 15+ value valuation.
One other question to ask about the stats pulled up is what is the W/L record of the team when he plays the 25+ vs 25- games? Part of that reasoning could be that Luka/Kyrie are not also playing, but I think it's important to know if his better numbers contribute to winning basketball games. That also kinda speaks to confidence. If he is just a player that is gonna pick up the slack when there is a void, well, there is some value to that, but not the kind of value being talked about. I really, really, really hope he figures it out this season (and I really hope we have extended him before it's obvious he has). If he does, Dan shows he could very well be that 3rd scorer guy on the team.